Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** Feb. 6, 2025
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DeepSeek's Success Reveals the Need for Smarter U.S. Export Controls

Chinese AI firm DeepSeek recently made headlines with its new AI models, reportedly created at a fraction of the cost of similar U.S.-built products. Some argue that DeepSeek's breakthrough means that the U.S. export controls designed to keep advanced AI chips away from China have backfired and should be lifted. But according to RAND's Ashley Lin and Lennart Heim, DeepSeek's success in fact underscores the need for smarter export controls.

Export controls must become more targeted and responsive to new developments in AI. And the agency responsible for export controls, the Bureau of Industry and Security, could be empowered to increase its capabilities for detecting and preventing export control violations.

Enhancing export controls is key to a broader strategy to counter China's AI ambitions and maintain U.S. leadership in computing power, Lin and Heim argue. By contrast, lifting export controls and allowing an unrestricted flow of advanced AI chips to China could squander America's technological advantage at a critical moment.

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With Assad Gone, Will Syrian Refugees Return?

The sudden ouster of the Assad regime late last year raises an important question: Can the 6 million people who became refugees during Syria's 14-year civil war now go home? According to RAND's Shelly Culbertson and Louay Constant, there are many factors working against the return of Syrian refugees. For example, the conditions inside Syria remain unsettled, external military threats persist, and many refugees have no home or job to return to. As for the Syrians who do choose to return, past RAND research shows that homecomings are most sustainable when the international community actively promotes stabilization, reconciliation, and reconstruction.

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U.S. Foreign Policy: Considering a Strategic Shift Toward Restraint

For decades, the U.S. approach to foreign policy has broadly been described as deep engagement, defined by such factors as a commitment to a vast network of allies and partners, a large forward military presence, and the use of force to uphold U.S. interests. Some critics of this approach argue instead for restraint, which would include efforts to rebalance, downgrade, or end U.S. alliances and security partnerships; reduce forward presence; and raise the bar for the use of force. New RAND research considers three different schools of thought regarding a U.S. grand strategy of restraint.

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** RAND Recommends
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- Recently published RAND research explores pathways to a durable Israeli-Palestinian peace.
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- Ukraine is reportedly testing laser weapons to target Russian drones and other aircraft. In Business Insider, RAND Europe's James Black discusses the challenges of deploying high-energy laser systems at scale.
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- RAND's Stanton Nuclear Security Fellows Program is open to post-doctoral students, tenure-track junior faculty, and doctoral students in the field of nuclear security. Apply by Monday, February 10.
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** Learn the Tools of Defense Policy Analysis
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Applications are open for Pardee RAND Graduate School's new Master of National Security Policy degree program. Full-time and part-time schedules are available at our campuses in Santa Monica, CA, and Arlington, VA.

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