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Daily News Brief

February 6, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering how deportation deals have been a focus of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s early diplomacy, as well as...

  • Argentina’s exit from the World Health Organization

  • G20 countries’ delays in naming climate targets

  • An impeachment in the Philippines

This week, we are rolling out an update to our flagship newsletter. You can share your feedback here. 

Top of the Agenda

Rubio focused on migration and struck deals on deportations during his first foreign tour as America’s top diplomat. In Guatemala City yesterday, Rubio and Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo announced an agreement that expands the number of deportation flights and nationalities of deportees the country accepts from the United States. El Salvador offered a similar agreement during Rubio’s stop there on Tuesday. His tour of Central America and the Caribbean wraps up today in the Dominican Republic.

 

By the numbers. U.S. President Donald Trump’s pledge to deport millions of undocumented immigrants—whom he blames for a range of problems, often based on false claims—would require new diplomatic agreements with accepting countries. It would also cost money, in the form of more detention space and funds spent on deportation flights.

 

 Analysts estimate that:

  • The ultimate cost of a long-term program to detain and deport some one million people per year would average out to $88 billion annually, the research and advocacy group American Immigration Council estimated.

  • Deporting around 1.3 million workers would cause U.S. GDP to drop 1.2 percent below its baseline level by the end of 2028, the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated. 

The Trump administration has used military planes in recent days to conduct high-visibility—and high-cost—flights to some Latin American countries. At home, the administration has faced some logistical constraints in its efforts to ramp up migrant arrests. On Monday, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) released around 160 migrants from its custody as its detention centers reached maximum capacity, CBS reported.  

 

Navigating pushback. Rubio, through his first tour, has signaled that operationalizing large-scale deportations will be an early goal of the Trump administration’s foreign policy. Several Latin American countries have shown willingness to cooperate, though Trump’s term is still in its early days. 

 

Inside the United States, the Trump administration’s steps toward wide-scale deportations have prompted some legal challenges and street demonstrations. CFR expert John B. Bellinger III wrote this week that the administration’s plans to transfer migrants to Guantánamo Bay will “without a doubt” prompt lawsuits. Pushback to these plans has also unfolded in the diplomatic realm, such as Colombia’s attempt late last month—soon walked back—to try to reject flights with deportees. 

 

CFR’s Edward Alden has argued that, more than diplomatic pushback, it ultimately might be a reaction from the U.S. business community that shakes Trump’s plans.

“If you get a strong negative market reaction, because investors are saying, ‘This is really disruptive, this is hurting important sectors of the economy,’ that could be a far bigger constraint on President Trump than anything else,” Alden said on The President’s Inbox. Listen to the podcast here.

Successes and Failures of Global Climate Talks

The Paris Agreement is one among several global climate deals, but countries are falling short of their pledges. In this Backgrounder, Lindsay Maizland and CFR’s Clara Fong unpack how they have held up over the years.

U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP25) in Madrid, Spain December 13, 2019. (Susana Vera/Reuters)

Across the Globe

Argentina’s WHO exit. President Javier Milei ordered the country’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO). Argentina’s presidential spokesperson cited “deep differences” with the WHO over its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and said that Argentina is also “analyzing leaving the Paris Agreement.” Both moves echo Trump, with whom Milei has sought close ties. 

 

Philippine VP impeached. The country’s House of Representatives impeached Vice President Sara Duterte on charges including corruption and plotting to assassinate President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Last year she said she would have Marcos taken out if she were killed. The Senate will now determine whether to remove Duterte from office; she denies wrongdoing. 

 

Emissions targets delayed. Most G20 countries are not expected to meet next week’s deadline for presenting updated emissions targets as part of the Paris Agreement. The anticipated stragglers include major polluters like Australia, the European Union, India, and South Africa. The director of a major climate group attributed this failure to factors including the “shock of the U.S. presidency” and noted that there “is not a lot of leader attention” on emissions targets at the moment.

 

Murmurs of Ukraine talks. U.S. and Russian officials have been in touch about the war in Ukraine, and those contacts “have intensified recently,” according to a Kremlin spokesperson. It was the first official Russian acknowledgement of such conversations occurring. U.S. allies expect the Trump administration to present them a proposal for ending the war at next week’s Munich Security Conference, Bloomberg reported citing unnamed sources.

 

Honda-Nissan merger teeters. Nissan’s board voted yesterday to reject a proposal to merge with Honda. It would have made the Japanese firms into the world’s third-largest automaking alliance and was floated in part as a response to competition from Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers. But in recent days, Honda had proposed making Nissan into a subsidiary rather than standing on equal footing. The companies said they would continue conversations.

 

Rubio’s G20 snub. Rubio said he will skip a G20 foreign ministers meeting in South Africa this month, citing the country’s land expropriation policies and climate efforts. South Africa’s new land law aims to address racial inequality; the country’s foreign ministry said it is similar to eminent domain laws in other countries. Rubio criticized South Africa for “DEI and climate change” work in a social media post. 

 

DRC rebel reactivation. Rwanda-backed M23 rebels took control of a mining town in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) despite having declared a unilateral ceasefire earlier in the week, eight unnamed sources told Reuters. Malawi, meanwhile, said yesterday it would withdraw its troops from a multinational security force in the DRC due to the truce. 


Optimism for BJP in Delhi. Exit polls following yesterday’s legislative elections in the Indian territory of Delhi projected a victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP party for the first time in twenty-seven years. The BJP lost an outright majority in a national vote last year, but has worked to win back voters through steps like tax cuts. Delhi’s incumbent Aam Aadmi party said exit polls had never judged its strength correctly. Official results are due Saturday.

Trump’s Turn Back From Global Health Diplomacy

Both the U.S. pullback from the World Health Organization and the U.S. foreign aid freeze spell a retrenchment from international health policy, CFR expert David Fidler writes for Think Global Health.

Workers spray the ground with disinfectant, during a visit of a World Health Organization team tasked with investigating the origins of COVID-19, in Wuhan, China, on January 31, 2021. (Thomas Peter/Reuters)

The Day Ahead

  • U.S. federal workers face a deadline from the Trump administration to take a buyout.

     

  • South African President Cyril Ramaphosa gives his annual State of the Nation speech.

     

  • Trump Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff meets Qatar’s prime minister in Florida. 

 

How Modi Is Reshaping India

CFR’s Why It Matters podcast last year dove into how Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s brand of Hindu nationalism has persisted as a dominant political force and is transforming the country. The discussion featured guests Ashok Swain and Hartosh Singh Bal. 

Listen
Why It Matters Podcast
 

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