Have we hit the labor market bottom yet?                                                            
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May 28, 2020

Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.

Why are Democrats dreading a rapid recovery from the COVID-19 recession?
Another 2.1 million Americans filed for initial jobless claims the week ending May 23, demonstrating that the U.S. economy is still contracting, but there may be a ray of hope as 3.8 million fewer Americans remained on unemployment insurance the week ending May 16, dropping from 24.9 million to 21.05 million as states are reopening. Mixed numbers like that make it hard to begin to spot a trend. It had gone from 22.5 million to 24.9 million from May 2 to May 9. So there’s a lot of volatility to consider before saying that we’d hit a labor market bottom that we are all hoping for. Well, almost everyone. Apparently top Democratic officials are quietly “dreading” a robust economic recovery before the election in November, fearing that it will fuel a political surge for President Donald Trump. A Politico story quoted a former Obama official saying “This is my big worry… It’s high — high, high, high, high” that the economy will begin a rapid recovery from the COVID-19 depression before the election in November. The Obama official was responding to an early April presentation by Jason Furman, a former Obama administration economist proclaiming that “We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country.” The case here, and we may be starting to see signs of it, is that because the economy shut down rapidly, furloughing tens of millions of workers, that as states reopen, tens of millions of Americans will quickly be returning to work, resulting in excellent jobs numbers going forward with millions of jobs being created each month. Hence the worry from Democratic political operatives.

Cartoon: A Deplorable Moment
The air comes out of the Joe Biden campaign.

Kevin Brock: New FBI document confirms the Trump campaign was investigated without justification
“Late last week the FBI document that started the Trump-Russia collusion fiasco was publicly released. It hasn’t received a lot of attention but it should, because not too long from now this document likely will be blown up and placed on an easel as Exhibit A in a federal courtroom. The prosecutor, U.S. Attorney John Durham, will rightly point out that the document that spawned three years of political misery fails to articulate a single justifiable reason for starting the ‘Crossfire Hurricane’ investigation. Those of us who have speculated there was insufficient cause for beginning the investigation could not have imagined the actual opening document was this feeble. It is as if it were written by someone who had no experience as an FBI agent.”


Why are Democrats dreading a rapid recovery from the COVID-19 recession?

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By Robert Romano

Another 2.1 million Americans filed for initial jobless claims the week ending May 23, demonstrating that the U.S. economy is still contracting, but there may be a ray of hope as 3.8 million fewer Americans remained on unemployment insurance the week ending May 16, dropping from 24.9 million to 21.05 million as states are reopening.

Mixed numbers like that make it hard to begin to spot a trend. It had gone from 22.5 million to 24.9 million from May 2 to May 9. So there’s a lot of volatility to consider. I think you’d want to see a few weeks in a row where people are coming off of unemployment and back to work before saying that we’d hit a labor market bottom that we are all hoping for.

Well, almost everyone. Apparently top  Democratic officials are quietly “dreading” a robust economic recovery before the election in November, fearing that it will fuel a political surge for President Donald Trump.

A Politico story quoted a former Obama official saying “This is my big worry… It’s high — high, high, high, high” that the economy will begin a rapid recovery from the COVID-19 depression before the election in November.

The Obama official was responding to an early April presentation by Jason Furman, a former Obama administration economist proclaiming that “We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country.”

The case here, and we may be starting to see signs of it, is that because the economy shut down rapidly, furloughing tens of millions of workers, that as states reopen, tens of millions of Americans will quickly be returning to work, resulting in excellent jobs numbers going forward with millions of jobs being created each month. Hence the worry from Democratic political operatives.

Just another reminder of the cynical nature of partisan politics, where to oust an incumbent the opposition party needs to hope for bad news for America.

But it remains speculative. The pandemic , which has claimed more than 100,000 lives, could help keep things closed longer than Furman is projecting.

Again, even with 3.8 million coming off of unemployment benefits, another 2.1 million were added. The result is upwards of 23.1 million jobs lost in the pandemic. Add to that the 5.8 million who were already unemployed  and you’re still looking at almost 29 million Americans out of work, and an effective unemployment rate of 17.6 percent, the most since the Great Depression.

Still, that’s down from the 20 percent I projected a week ago — again owing to the volatility expressed in the data plus the week lag in continuing claims data — a trend I’m sure almost all less politically minded Americans hope continues.

So, have we hit a labor market bottom? It’s still too early to tell. We should ask the coronavirus.

Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government.


Cartoon: A Deplorable Moment

By A.F. Branco

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Click here for a higher level resolution version.

 


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ALG Editor’s Note: In the following featured column from the Hill’s Kevin Brock, the FBI document that started the Trump-Russia conspiracy theory investigation will likely become Exhibit A in any case against the investigators:

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New FBI document confirms the Trump campaign was investigated without justification

Late last week the FBI document that started the Trump-Russia collusion fiasco was publicly released. It hasn’t received a lot of attention but it should, because not too long from now this document likely will be blown up and placed on an easel as Exhibit A in a federal courtroom.

The prosecutor, U.S. Attorney John Durham, will rightly point out that the document that spawned three years of political misery fails to articulate a single justifiable reason for starting the “Crossfire Hurricane” investigation.  

Those of us who have speculated there was insufficient cause for beginning the investigation could not have imagined the actual opening document was this feeble. It is as if it were written by someone who had no experience as an FBI agent.

Keep in mind the FBI cannot begin to investigate anyone, especially a U.S. citizen or entity, without first creating a document that lists the reasonably suspicious factors that would legally justify the investigation. That’s FBI 101, taught Day 1 at the FBI Academy at Quantico, Va.

To the untrained eye, the FBI document that launched Crossfire Hurricane can be confusing, and it may be difficult to discern how it might be inadequate. To the trained eye, however, it is a train wreck. There are a number of reasons why it is so bad. Two main ones are offered below (if you would like to follow along, the document is here):

First, the document is oddly constructed. In a normal, legitimate FBI Electronic Communication, or EC, there would be a “To” and a “From” line. The Crossfire Hurricane EC has only a “From” line; it is from a part of the FBI’s Counterintelligence Division whose contact is listed as Peter Strzok. The EC was drafted also by Peter Strzok. And, finally, it was approved by Peter Strzok. Essentially, it is a document created by Peter Strzok, approved by Peter Strzok, and sent from Peter Strzok to Peter Strzok.

On that basis alone, the document is an absurdity, violative of all FBI protocols and, therefore, invalid on its face. An agent cannot approve his or her own case; that would make a mockery of the oversight designed to protect Americans. Yet, for this document, Peter Strzok was pitcher, catcher, batter and umpire.

In addition, several names are listed in a “cc” or copy line; all are redacted, save Strzok’s, who, for some reason, felt it necessary to copy himself on a document he sent from himself to himself.  

Names on an FBI document are always listed in cascading fashion, with the most senior at the top and on down to the least senior. On this EC, Strzok is listed last, so the redacted names should be more senior to him. Those names could well include then-FBI Director James Comey, then-Deputy Director Andrew McCabe and then-Counterintelligence Assistant Director Bill Priestap. The document also establishes these redacted names as “case participants.”

Second, the Crossfire Hurricane case was opened as a Foreign Agent Registration Act (FARA) investigation. A FARA investigation involves a criminal violation of law — in this case, a negligent or intentional failure to register with the U.S. government after being engaged by a foreign country to perform services on its behalf — that is punishable by fines and imprisonment. It is rarely investigated.

In a normal EC opening a FARA case, we should expect to see a list of reasons why the FBI believes individuals associated with a U.S. presidential campaign had been engaged by the Russian government to represent and advocate that government’s goals.

This, however, was no normal EC. Try as we might to spot them, those reasons are not found anywhere in the document. Despite redactions, it has been fairly well established that an Australian diplomat, Andrew Downer, met a low-level Trump campaign adviser, George Papadopoulos, in a London bar for drinks; Downer then reported the conversation, which eventually made its way to U.S. officials in London. 

The Strzok EC quotes verbatim an email authored by Downer. In it, Downer claims Papadopoulos “suggested” to him that the Trump team had received “some kind of suggestion” of assistance from Russia regarding information damaging to Hillary Clinton and President Obama. In other words, a suggestion of a suggestion.

Strzok apparently took this nebulous reporting by Downer and then leapt to the dubious conclusion that Papadopoulos and unnamed others were engaged by the Russians to act as foreign agents on Russia’s behalf. This, despite Downer also offering two exculpatory statements in the same email: 1) It was “unclear” how the Trump campaign might have reacted to the Russian claims and 2) the Russians likely were going to do what they were going to do with the information whether anyone in the Trump campaign cooperated with them or not.

Strzok then concludes the EC by moving the goalposts. He writes that Crossfire Hurricane is being opened to determine if unspecified “individual(s)” associated with the Trump campaign are “witting of and/or coordinating activities” — also unspecified — “with the Government of Russia.” He doesn’t even mention Papadopoulos.

Ultimately, there was no attempt by Strzok to articulate any factors that address the elements of FARA. He couldn’t, because there are none. Instead, there was a weak attempt to allege some kind of cooperation with Russians by unknown individuals affiliated with the Trump campaign, again, with no supporting facts listed.

What this FBI document clearly establishes is that Crossfire Hurricane was an illicit, made-up investigation lacking a shred of justifying predication, sprung from the mind of someone who despised Donald Trump, and then blessed by inexperienced leadership at the highest levels who harbored their own now well-established biases.  

To paraphrase a fired FBI director: No reasonable FBI counterintelligence squad supervisor in the field would have approved and opened that Strzok EC. They know the rules too well.

Instead, the nation was left with an investigation of a presidential campaign that had no legitimate predication; that spawned a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act intercept of a U.S. citizen that had no legitimate predication; that resulted in a confrontation with a new administration’s national security adviser that had no legitimate predication; and, finally, that led to an expensive special counsel investigation that had no legitimate predication. No pattern-recognition software needed here.

Hopefully, Exhibit A will be displayed in a federal courtroom soon. The rule of law, upon which the FBI rests its very purpose and being, was callously discarded by weak leaders who sought higher loyalty to their personal agendas, egos, biases and politics. Accountability is demanded by the American people. Let’s pray we see some.

To view online: https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/499586-new-fbi-document-confirms-the-trump-campaign-was-investigated-without





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