Trump to Speak With Canada, Mexico Leaders as Tariff Reactions Ripple Through Markets |
U.S. President Donald Trump is due to hold separate calls with the leaders of Canada and Mexico today before blanket tariffs of 25 percent—and a lower 10 percent rate for Canadian energy—are due to hit their goods just past midnight tonight. Trump’s weekend order also put 10 percent tariffs on top of preexisting duties for Chinese imports. While Trump has threatened these measures on the United States’ top three trade partners for weeks, his follow-through has shaken global markets and prompted a raft of estimates on costs to national growth and to consumers. U.S. stock futures fell and the dollar strengthened against foreign currencies.
Trump used emergency executive powers to order the tariffs, citing triggers ranging from fentanyl flows to concerns about drug trafficking and migration. He acknowledged there could be “some pain” to U.S. consumers from these steps. In response, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau listed some $107 billion in U.S. goods that would face Canadian tariffs in a first round of retaliation. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she would detail her response today. China said it would take unspecified countermeasures and lodge a complaint with the World Trade Organization. (Bloomberg, NYT, CNBC, Guardian, Economist)
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“In his first weeks back in office, Trump has threatened and imposed tariffs in an utterly random, incomprehensible fashion…There are few historical examples, and no significant ones, for the United States using the tariff weapon to achieve such utterly unrelated policy goals,” CFR Senior Fellow Edward Alden writes.
“Americans will feel this in their pocketbooks because of all of the things they buy every day that come from these countries. But in addition to this, it is likely that all of those three partners are going to retaliate against U.S. exports, which means U.S. exporters will also pay a cost of making sure that their products can make it outside to other markets,” CFR expert Inu Manak says.
“The U.S. willingness to ignore its treaty obligations, even with friends, won’t make other countries eager to do deals,” the Wall Street Journal editorial board writes. “Maybe Mr. Trump will claim victory and pull back if he wins some token concessions. But if a North American trade war persists, it will qualify as one of the dumbest in history.”
With these nine charts, CFR expert Shannon K. O’Neil and CFR’s Julia Huesa lay out what’s at stake in Trump’s trade war.
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North Korean Troops Appear to Have Pulled Back From Russia Frontline |
Ukrainian troops have not seen North Korean fighters in Russia’s Kursk region for around three weeks, likely due to “heavy losses,” a Ukrainian official said. Ukrainian and Western intelligence reports said some twelve thousand North Koreans were sent to Russia; Pyongyang and Moscow have not acknowledged them. (CNN)
Taiwan: The economy ministry will provide information and support to companies that seek to relocate to the United States in the wake of new tariffs on goods from China and Mexico, it said. Many Taiwanese firms have factories in those countries. (Reuters)
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India Expands Pool of Workers Exempt From Income Tax |
The government projects the changes will produce some $11.5 billion in total tax relief. Its move is meant to spur the economy, which is expected to grow around 6.4 percent in the current fiscal year. That still falls short of the 8 percent annual growth India would require to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s target of making it a developed country by 2047. (Bloomberg)
Afghanistan/Pakistan: Pakistan deported 141 Afghan nationals back to Afghanistan, the Taliban government said Saturday. Pakistan’s ongoing campaign to detain and deport Afghans has drawn criticism from human rights groups and countries such as Germany. (Amu)
Megan Fahrney explains why Pakistan is deporting Afghan migrants.
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Middle East and North Africa |
Netanyahu Arrives in Washington for Talks on Gaza |
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will discuss the second phase of the Gaza cease-fire and hostage deal in a meeting today with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, Netanyahu’s office said. Hamas released three hostages and Israel released over 180 prisoners on Saturday. (NYT)
Saudi Arabia/Syria: Syria’s Ahmad al-Sharaa visited Riyadh in his first foreign trip since being named interim president. The move symbolizes Syria’s distance from Iran since the rebel takeover; Saudi Arabia has pledged to invest in Syria’s reconstruction. (AFP, FT)
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U.S. Reports Strike Targeting Self-Declared Islamic State in Somalia |
An initial assessment found that “multiple operatives” were killed in the strike, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said. Trump pulled some seven hundred U.S. troops out of Somalia in his first term, while Joe Biden reinstalled some 450. (NYT)
U.S./South Africa: Trump said the United States will cut off funding to South Africa over its new land expropriation policy. The law aims to address racial inequities in land ownership by allowing the government to seize land without compensation when it is “just and equitable and in the public interest.” South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said his government had not confiscated any land and looks forward to engaging with Trump on land policies. (FT, CNN)
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EU Countries Hold Informal Security Talks With UK, Norway |
Countries at a closed-door meeting in Brussels today are discussing how the United Kingdom (UK) and Norway can collaborate on European defense initiatives despite not being European Union (EU) members. Trump has urged European countries to spend more on their own defense. (FT)
Belgium: The country’s first government led by a Flemish nationalist was sworn in today after months of coalition talks. Bart De Wever’s N-VA party has pushed for more independence for Dutch-speaking Flanders. (Reuters, FT)
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Panama To Consider Early Termination of Belt and Road Initiative Deal |
Panama will not renew its participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative and will study the possibility of ending it early, President José Raúl Mulino said after a visit by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio yesterday. Trump believes current Chinese influence in the Panama Canal violates the canal’s neutrality treaty, a State Department spokesperson said without explaining why; China has denied a part in operating the canal and said it respects Panama’s sovereignty and the neutrality of the waterway. The officials also discussed irregular migration. (Reuters, Department of State)
CFR’s Diana Roy explains who really controls the Panama Canal.
U.S./Venezuela: Venezuela freed six U.S. detainees after a Friday meeting between Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Trump envoy Richard Grenell. The country also agreed to take back undocumented migrants deported from the United States, Trump said Saturday. The Trump administration will end Temporary Protected Status in the coming months for more than three hundred thousand Venezuelans, removing protections from deportation, according to documents reported by multiple news sites Sunday. (WaPo, NYT)
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USAID Workers Told to Stay Out of Building as Musk Says Agency Will Shutter |
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Workers at the main Washington office of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) were told not to come to work today. Shortly after midnight last night, Elon Musk said “we’re shutting” the agency on orders from Trump. The USAID site went dark over the weekend. Ten Democratic senators said in a letter that shutting USAID would require Congressional approval. (CNN, WaPo)
In December, then-Assistant Administrator of USAID Atul Gawande discussed its work on public health at CFR.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent granted access to a federal payment system to people working with Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency,” multiple news outlets reported. The treasury, the White House, and the Department did not immediately comment. (NYT)
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