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Weekend Reads
A Standard Missile-3 Block IIA is fired from a vertical launching system on Andersen Air Force Base in Guam as part of Flight Experiment Mission-02. (DVIDS)
President Donald Trump’s executive order to build a next-generation missile defense shield for the United States homeland is a monumental leap for US deterrence policy.
Last year, Hudson’s Rebeccah L. Heinrichs served on the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, which recommended that the US “develop and field homeland IAMD [integrated air and missile defense] that can deter and defeat coercive attacks by Russia and China.” In an op-ed with co-commissioner General (Ret.) John Hyten, she argued that space-based capabilities would be crucial for such a system.
Her three main takeaways from the executive order are below.
Key Insights
1. Missile defense complicates an adversary’s calculations about whether to strike.
If an adversary does decide to strike, an active defense system like the one President Trump’s order stipulates could limit the damage and ensure Washington has credible options to respond and compel the adversary to cease its aggression. Hudson research has recommended building up US missile defense capabilities and breaking from the decades-old views that missile defense is provocative or technically infeasible.
2. The strategy of avoiding an arms race by remaining vulnerable has failed.
Missile defense critics have warned that if the United States breaks from its policy of remaining vulnerable to peer missile strikes, adversaries may also build missile defenses. But Russia and China are already doing this. As the first Trump administration’s Missile Defense Review states, “Russia has retained and upgraded its own missile defense system designed to protect Moscow against a US strike.” Washington’s previous refusal to develop a robust missile defense has not encouraged its adversaries to take a more benign approach. Instead, adversaries have noted US vulnerabilities and have sought to develop military capabilities to increase their advantages at the expense of American security and sovereignty.
3. The US needs to start developing next-generation technologies now.
Space-located sensors and interceptors are the most effective means of neutralizing potential threats, and announcing that the United States is pursuing these capabilities signals to adversaries that Washington will no longer allow them to hold at risk the US homeland at a low cost. Additionally, adversaries will have to consider that the United States may have other technologies and capabilities they do not fully understand. While President Trump’s executive order requires initiating and accelerating technologies that will take time to mature, moving quickly to develop them could bolster the credibility of US deterrence efforts, help restore stability, and increase the chances of maintaining peace between nuclear adversaries.
Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.
Go Deeper
In an August 2024 op-ed, Rebeccah Heinrichs writes that President Trump is right about America needing an “Iron Dome,” which she says is likely shorthand for a comprehensive missile defense system that upgrades sea- and ground-based systems and adds an interceptor layer in space.
Aaron MacLean discusses the history of American missile defense and lays out the potential costs and capabilities of an American Iron Dome on School of War with Tom Karako.
In an essay compilation edited by Rebeccah Heinrichs, deterrence experts analyze how the rising axis of adversaries uses nuclear coercion to weaken the US. They recommend that Washington complement its offensive weapons with active defenses.
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