New Research Suggests Outbreak Began in U.S. in Mid-February

New research suggests that the coronavirus outbreak began in the United States in mid-February — a conclusion that could change our understanding of how the virus spread here, as the Washington Post reports.

The Post also reports that a leading Covid-19 model predicts the death toll in Brazil could surpass 125,000 by early August.

Hong Kong

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said today that the State Department no longer considered Hong Kong to have significant autonomy under Chinese rule, a move that indicated a likely end to some or all of the U.S. special trade and economic relations with Hong Kong, as the NYT reports.

Troop Strength Lower Ahead of Schedule in Afghanistan

U.S. troop strength in Afghanistan is down to nearly 8,600, well ahead of a schedule agreed with Taliban militants in late February, in part because of concerns about the spread of the coronavirus, as Reuters reports.

On the Horizon

The Covid-19 crisis comes at a time of worsening U.S.-India economic relations. But recovery from the pandemic offers new opportunities for positive cooperation and more resilient linkages.

CSIS’s “On the Horizon” series offers insights into the more fundamental changes we might anticipate for our future social and economic world as a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic.

CSIS Executive Education

CSIS’s flagship course on Understanding Washington is now being offered in a real-time online format from June 8 to 10. This format eliminates the need for travel and includes a reduction in tuition. We recommend this course to corporate and government professionals responsible for their organization’s government relations portfolio. Register here.

Video Shorts

Check out CSIS’s new series of video shorts: “Testify,” "What's Happening," "Preview," and “High Resolution.” And don’t forget to subscribe to the CSIS YouTube Channel!

In That Number

$2 Trillion

The European Union set out a $2 trillion coronavirus response plan, composed of a €750 billion ($824 billion) recovery plan and €1.1 trillion budget over the next seven years.

Source: WSJ

Critical Quote

“No reasonable person can assert today that Hong Kong maintains a high degree of autonomy from China.”

— Secretary of State Mike Pompeo

iDeas Lab

At China’s National People’s Congress, officials revealed that spending on national defense in 2020 would rise to 1.268 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.6% - the lowest in decades.

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and multimedia.

Optics

(Photo credit: Isaac Lawrence/AFP/Getty Images). Riot police detain a group of protestors in Hong Kong demonstrating against a new law that bans insulting China's national anthem.

Online Events

Tomorrow, at 9:00 a.m., CSIS’s global health expert Steve Morrison will host a timely conversation with Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) about the public health and economic dimensions in addressing the coronavirus pandemic as we enter a period of gradual reopening.

Also, at 10:00 a.m., CSIS’s president and CEO Dr. John Hamre will speak with S. Joe Bhatia, president and CEO of the American National Standards Institute to discuss China’s growing ambitions to become a leader in the global standards-setting process.

Later, at 3:00 p.m., CSIS’s Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group will host a panel of experts to discuss the impact of Covid-19 on the defense industrial base and U.S. national security.

Video

The impact of the coronavirus is most severely felt for the 168 million in need of humanitarian assistance globally, including 70 million people who are forcibly displaced. Today, CSIS’s Humanitarian Agenda invited Michelle Nunn, president and CEO of CARE USA, for a discussion on CARE’s response to the pandemic and what challenges they foresee on the horizon. Watch the event here.

Podcasts

CSIS Trade Guy, Scott Miller, and I have a new podcast, The Reopening. Each week, we'll be speaking with a leader from the world of business and finance about the future of the U.S. and global economies.

Listen on Spotify & Apple Podcasts.

Smiles

This clip of Stevie Nicks singing “Rhiannon” with Fleetwood Mac is one of the most rock and roll things I have ever seen.

I invite you to email me at [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz

The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Emma Colbran, Caleb Diamond, and Brad Honigberg.