Trump Threatens Tariffs, Sanctions on Russia If War Does Not End ‘Soon’ |
U.S. President Donald Trump yesterday escalated his warnings against Moscow by threatening “high levels of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions” on Russia and other unspecified “participating countries” if a deal is not reached to end the war in Ukraine “soon.” Trump has repeatedly pledged to negotiate an end to the war, but until now has been vague about his methods. A Kremlin spokesperson told Russian media yesterday that Moscow was still “waiting for signals that have not yet been received” from Washington.
Trump’s advisors have pedaled back his proposed timeline for ending the war in recent weeks—acknowledging it could take months, rather than twenty-four hours—even as both Kyiv and Moscow have informally floated their demands for a truce. In the meantime, Russia’s economy has faced labor shortages and high inflation amid its record military spending, pushing some within the Russian elite to urge a negotiated end to the war, Reuters reported. (Reuters, Politico, CNN, Bloomberg)
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“[Russian President Vladimir] Putin...believes he is making progress toward achieving his maximal goals. The key to getting him to think otherwise is to convince him that time is not on his side. That requires action in four areas: articulation of a shared Western and Ukrainian vision of success; continued support for Ukraine’s war effort and its integration into the Euro-Atlantic community; resistance to Russia, including targeted sanctions, ramped-up weapons production, and pressure on its partners; and incentives for Russia such as an offer to restore more normal diplomatic relations,” CFR expert Thomas Graham writes in a Ukraine Policy Brief.
“[Russia’s] economy is structured more and more in a war- and state-skewed way, with the central bank’s punishingly high benchmark interest rate of 21 percent—necessary to control inflation—driving some businesses to the brink of bankruptcy. By prioritizing security, the Kremlin has made Russians less safe: for many, daily life now consists of either waiting for an enemy drone to arrive or, for those who are against the war, for a decisive knock on the door by the authorities,” the Finnish Institute of International Affairs’ Andrei Kolesnikov writes for Foreign Affairs.
CFR has published articles on critical topics related to securing Ukraine’s future. |
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Report: Japan Plans Rule on Chinese State-Backed Investment |
A regulation that could go into effect as soon as this spring would introduce new reporting requirements for foreign investors that could cooperate with foreign governments collecting intelligence, Nikkei reported citing unnamed sources. It would cover only certain unspecified sectors, but spring into place when the shares of a Japanese firm being purchased were as few as one percent. (Nikkei)
Thailand: Same-sex couples attended a mass wedding in Bangkok today, the first day the procedure was legal in the country. Thailand is the first Southeast Asian country to recognize same-sex marriage. (NYT)
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Pakistan’s Government Proposes Law to Broadly Direct Social Media Content |
The country’s opposition accused the government of trying to stifle free expression after it introduced the bill. It would create an agency that could order takedowns of “unlawful and offensive content” and make disinformation a criminal offense with a penalty of three years in prison. Pakistan has blocked X in the country since last year. (AP)
U.S./Afghanistan: Programs supporting women and girls in Afghanistan are among those that will be hit by Trump’s immediate freeze on U.S. foreign aid, the head of the Norwegian Refugee Council said. He called the cuts “disastrous” as Washington is currently the largest donor to those projects. (Reuters)
CFR’s Clara Fong and Noël James write about the growing calls to recognize Taliban actions as gender apartheid. |
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Middle East and North Africa |
UN Nuclear Chief Says Iran ‘Pressing the Gas Pedal’ on Uranium Enrichment, Calls for Talks |
Top UN nuclear watchdog Rafael Grossi said yesterday that Iran was upping the monthly amount of uranium it enriches to a level near weapons-grade. Grossi urged the Trump administration to enter nuclear talks with Iran to contain its nuclear activities. So too did senior Iranian official Mohammad Javad Zarif, who said Iran had been “looking at our surroundings” and believes “it is the time to move forward.” (Reuters, The Guardian)
U.S./Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia plans to grow its trade and investment with the United States by at least six hundred billion dollars over the next four years, according to a Saudi state media report of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s call yesterday with Trump. The White House did not immediately comment on the call. (NYT)
In this YouTube Short, former U.S. National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster discusses what’s behind Riyadh’s eagerness for Trump’s return.
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South Sudan Suspends Access to Social Media Platforms After Videos Triggered Riots |
Authorities suspended access to Facebook, TikTok, and other platforms after videos depicting alleged killings of South Sudanese nationals in Sudan sparked riots. Rioters blamed the killings in Sudan’s El Gezira state on Sudan’s military, which said there had been “individual” violations in El Gezira. (Reuters)
Zambia: The country increased its copper production last year despite a drought that had put the sector at risk. Zambia is Africa’s second-largest producer of copper, a component of electric cars and wind turbines. (Bloomberg)
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UK Says Russian Spy Vessel Reentered Its Waters |
The United Kingdom warned Russia it would not shy away from “robust action to protect Britain,” after saying that a Russian spy vessel had sailed into its waters for the second time in weeks. The Kremlin did not comment. (CNN) |
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Mexico Builds Temporary Shelters to Prepare for U.S. Deportations |
Mexico is preparing to receive deportees by constructing shelters along the U.S.-Mexico border and creating programs to match returnees with jobs. In addition to deporting people to Mexico, the Trump administration aims to restart a program known as “Remain in Mexico,” though Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said yesterday that Mexico had not agreed to take non-Mexican asylum seekers as part of that program. (NYT, Reuters)
CFR’s Diana Roy explains the immigration terms you’ll need to know in the second Trump administration.
Colombia/Haiti: Colombian President Gustavo Petro became a rare foreign leader to visit Haiti yesterday as the country continues to battle gang violence. He held talks with Haiti’s transitional president; Colombia’s presidency said prior to the talks they would cover joint agriculture and economic development projects. (Reuters, AP)
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Bloomberg Foundation Says It Will Cover U.S. Dues to UN Climate Change Body |
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The philanthropy said it would pay dues and track U.S. non-federal climate commitments for the UN body after Trump announced the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. Bloomberg similarly paid these dues—some 22 percent of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change secretariat’s budget—after Trump’s 2017 Paris accord withdrawal. (AFP)
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Council on Foreign Relations |
58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 |
1777 F Street, NW — Washington, DC 20006 |
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