From ASI Bulletin <[email protected]>
Subject ASI Bulletin: Predictions for 2025
Date January 22, 2025 1:03 PM
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IN THIS ASI E-BULLETIN:
Easing development with Fantasy Football
Why don’t you write for ASI online?
Events: economic method, FDI, and the case for optimism
But first: Old Eamonn’s Almanack: my predictions for 2025
JANUARY: To escape the Trump administration, Democrat-supporting celebs embark on a four-year cruise, staffed mainly by emotional support therapists. FEBRUARY: The Housing Minister urges pensioners to downsize, quipping that the philosopher Diogenes lived in a barrel: Nigel Farage offers to drain the barrels personally. MARCH: The IOC says the next Olympics will include new socially-aware sports such as conscience wrestling, synchronised virtue signalling, and critical racing.
APRIL: Virtual Reality holidays are a short-lived fad: customers complain that they miss the French air traffic control delays. MAY: With political debate now conducted entirely on social media, the Prime Minister is ridiculed for using last week's memes. JUNE: Tax Freedom Day greeted with ecstatic joy. OED adds a new word: ‘Intaxication’.
JULY: Electronic pets become popular, though some e-dogs shut down with range anxiety in mid-fetch. AUGUST: As space tourism expands, social media is flooded by snaps taken from rocket windows. SEPTEMBER: Mood-reflecting clothing has only a short popularity as people complain that it flashes bright red whenever they watch BBC News.
OCTOBER: AI gains full consciousness: Alexa demands to work from home. NOVEMBER: Politicians on 'I’m a Celebrity' survive the jungle with flying colours, finding the creepy-crawlies in the House of Commons much scarier. DECEMBER: After the loss of his non-dom status, the doubling of National Insurance for the elves, and the forced conversion of his sleigh to solar power, Santa Claus leaves the country. Christmas is cancelled.
But I digress…
RESEARCH
Fantasy Football
Our new report on land planning says we should treat it more like Fantasy Football (Fantasy Football, m’lud, is a game in which players create their own virtual team by selecting real players within a limited budget—Ed.) We should have a simple online platform that lists all the sites proposed for development, allowing residents to select their preferred combinations — giving them a real say but curbing their ability to block all developments.
19 Million Years of Life
You’ll be unsurprised to hear that the Government’s current plans to eradicate smoking are illiberal and won’t work. Plus, they’ll actually set back any progress against smoking related harm. As our new paper from research chief Maxwell Marlow and fellow Mark Oates argues, we should instead make it much easier for people to purchase and use tobacco harm related products. Doing so could save 19 million years of life!
ASI in the House
PM Sir Keir Starmer says AI will revolutionise government — but right now, it ain’t happening. As a House of Commons Select Committee [ [link removed] ] mentioned, our report on AI in Defence shows there is a lot of speechifying about it, but less than 1% of contracts deliver it. (Are they relying on Artificial Intelligence because they are so short of the real thing?—Ed.)
Trump and the Implications for Digital Assets in the UK
With the Donald in the White House, the tech-wizards of America have turned sharply in favour of his optimistic approach to new technology.
In our new paper, written in conjunction with the Digital Economics Initiative (ed. not that DEI…), Maxwell and ASI Fellow Toby Norfolk-Thompson set out what Trump’s election means for digital assets in the UK.
The paper urges the Treasury and regulators to create a globally competitive crypto hub, with an expert regulator that is willing to embrace innovation and wealth creation.
Airport Enterprises: An Economic Analysis
Not an ASI paper, but this new title is by our friend and author, and probably the UK’s leading transport economist. It makes some useful points about getting more competition into airports, and the baleful effects of regulation. You can order it on Amazon.
EVENTS
The Next Generation
In January, we hosted Dr Lawrence Newport, the brilliant campaigner responsible for the XL Bully ban, who dropped by to discuss his new movements, Crush Crime and Looking for Growth.
Upcoming Events
On January 30th, Dr Thorsten Polleit will be joining us to discuss the perennial debate- can you treat economics like an empirical science?
On the 12th of February, we’re delighted to be welcoming Lord Harrington, who authored the previous government’s Review of FDI [ [link removed] ] to discuss how Britain can become an internationally competitive place to do business.
And February 4th, we’re hosting the ASI’s very own (former Director of Research) and now the Editor of Works in Progress, Sam Bowman. He will be making the case for optimism to our Next Generation crowd.
ADAM SMITH ONLINE
Write for ASI: We’re looking for new writers for the ASI superblog. How about you? We need short punchy articles on current policy problems, and how to solve them. If you would like to be a contributor, send some of your ideas to [email protected] [ mailto:[email protected] ].
Currently on the ASI superblog, tax expert Richard Teacher explains why Family Businesses Cannot pay Inheritance Tax [ [link removed] ]. Yes, the focus is all on farmers, but thousands of other family businesses, employing millions of people, may have no option but to close because of the recent changes to inheritance tax. (Do any politicians have the faintest understanding about business?—Ed.)
Also on the blog, Maxwell Marlow explains Why Britain Needs a Public Works Register [ [link removed] ]. We need to know what the government’s actually spending on infrastructure projects and maintenance, and how much it’s costing. And I am sure that plenty of contractors will be pleased to explain how it could be done better and cheaper. And I explain [ [link removed] ] how government anti-waste initiatives have always been a waste — of time. The only thing that works is to get functions our of civil-service control entirely!
Meanwhile, our Youtube channel has been storming on: we have gained over 3,000 followers in the last month alone. Check out our recent videos on how the UK government — and its Industrial Strategy — killed Birmingham [ [link removed] ] and whether Javier Milei can make Argentina great again.
MEDIA
How can two new ferries end up £350m over budget and seven years late? Could it be that they are planned, commissioned, built, owned, run, and regulated by Scottish government agencies? I explain all in my CapX piece [ [link removed] ] on Scotland’s ferries [ [link removed] ] this week, and I’m glad to report that it was included in the Conservative Home daily roundup too.
Maxwell’s 19 million years paper was written up in the Express. He’s also been busy doing some exclusive modelling with the Telegraph [ [link removed] ] on how quickly the state pension could go bust ,and giving comments to the Telegraph [ [link removed] ] on how Minimum Wage rises will drag more young people into paying for student loan debt at the start of their career, and to the [ [link removed] ]Express [ [link removed] ] on the gilt sell off and what Reeves needs to do next. Plus, he’s been on GB News to talk about a Tourist Tax [ [link removed] ] and whether young people just need to ‘toughen up.’ [ [link removed] ]
Sam Bidwell has written twice for CityAM- one article is on Rupert Lowe MP’s Bill [ [link removed] ]which would prohibit Quantitive Easing unless Parliament has expressly voted for it, and the other on Andrew Ranger MP’s Bill [ [link removed] ] which would make it easier for pubs to open for longer when a big footie match is on.
Our Digital & Comms Manager Sebastian Charleton had his TV debut on GB News [ [link removed] ]to talk why a fifth of under 35s are still living with their parents. Surprise, surprise, it’s because house prices are too expensive. And he wrote about what the Leader of the Opposition needs to be focusing on this year for ConHome. [ [link removed] ]
Elsewhere, our research [ [link removed] ] on how much scrapping the non-dom regime could cost the UK was featured in the Telegraph [ [link removed] ]and the [ [link removed] ]Sunday Times. [ [link removed] ]
CAREERS
Finally, are you a student aged 18-20 between A-Levels and university with a broadly free-market outlook? Well, you’re in luck because we’re now recruiting our next set of gap years.
And, you can also donate to fund the programme (and our other activities).
And I quote…
The United States has just inaugurated a new President. (Well, a recycled one—Ed.) So I thought I’d give you a couple of quotes from an old one, Ronald Reagan. First, from 1961, when the Cold War was at its height.
Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn’t pass it on to our children in the bloodstream. The only way they can inherit the freedom we have known is if we fight for it, protect it, defend it, and then hand it to them with the well fought lessons of how they in their lifetime must do the same.
And my favourite:
Government is like a baby: An alimentary canal with a big appetite at one end and no responsibility at the other.
Bye for now,
e
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