The Numbers: Comparing the 2020 and 2024 Elections.

Hello John,

We believe in keeping you informed with the most accurate information, even when the news is tough to hear. While the results of the 2024 election are disheartening, this is a moment to stay vigilant, analyze what went wrong, adapt, and prepare for the next opportunity to make a difference. Your commitment and engagement mean everything to us, and together, we can keep pushing forward.

With that said, let's dive into it:

The 2024 election results delivered a clear but narrow victory for Donald Trump. While his win may not have been a landslide by historical standards, his performance compared to the 2020 election marks a concerning trend for Democrats, particularly in battleground states and key demographic groups. Analyzing these shifts is essential to understanding where we must regroup and how we can build a stronger foundation for future victories.

Trump’s Gains from 2020 to 2024

Stronger Popular Vote Performance: In 2024, Trump achieved a level of success that Republicans have rarely seen in recent decades. He became only the second Republican since 1988 to win the popular vote. While his nearly 50% share of the vote is not unprecedented, it reflects a significant improvement from 2020, when Joe Biden d efeated him by over 7 million votes (4.45% margin).

The Shift: Trump narrowed the national gap dramatically, securing a margin of 1.62% over Vice President Kamala Harris. This improvement underscores a recalibration of his campaign to better target disillusioned Democrats, independents, and previously low-turnout Republican voters.

Flipping Battleground States: In 2020, Trump lost six of seven critical battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), all of which Joe Biden carried by slim margins. In 2024, Trump not only regained these states but did so decisively, flipping them by wider margins than in his 2016 victory.

Collective Margin Comparison: Trump’s combined margin of 760,000 votes in these states dwarfs the margins seen in other tight elections, such as the 2020 Biden-Trump contest, where the collective difference in battleground states was fewer than 45,000 votes.

Regional and Demographic Gains: Trump gained ground in suburban areas where Biden previously made inroads, while also expanding his support among working-class voters, particularly in rural and industrial regions. Trump improved his margins among Hispanic and Black voters compared to 2020, continuing a trend of Republican gains in these demographics that began in his previous campaigns.

Areas Where Trump Fell Short

Despite these gains, it’s important to recognize where Trump’s victory was less convincing:

Narrow National Margin: Trump’s 2024 victory margin of 1.62% is smaller than many past winners and pales in comparison to Biden’s 4.45% popular vote margin in 2020. His raw vote margin of about 2.5 million votes is modest compared to Biden’s 7 million in the previous election.

Limited Coattail Effect: While Trump’s personal brand secured him the presidency, it provided little support for other Republicans down-ballot. Democrats held crucial Senate seats, including Tammy Baldwin’s in the pivotal state of Wisconsin. This trend extended to other key battleground states, where Democrats retained Senate seats in Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada—and even won the gubernatorial race in North Carolina.



Modest Congressional Gains: Republicans failed to expand their narrow majority in the House significantly, and Democrats even gained ground in state legislatures and other down-ballot contests.

What Changed Between 2020 and 2024?

Several factors contributed to Trump’s improved performance:

Targeted Messaging on Key Issues: Trump’s campaign effectively capitalized on concerns about inflation, immigration, and crime. These issues resonated with voters in battleground states, where dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party’s handling of these topics was more pronounced.

Democratic Turnout Challenges: Voter enthusiasm among key Democratic constituencies—particularly younger voters and urban populations—did not match 2020 levels. This decline in turnout proved costly in close states like Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Strategic Outreach to Swing Demographics: Trump’s campaign made noticeable inroads among Hispanic and Black voters, particularly in states like Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. By focusing on economic messaging and cultural concerns, the GOP chipped away at traditional Democratic strongholds within these communities.

Moving Forward

Rebuild the Coalition: The Democratic coalition that powered Biden’s 2020 victory—suburban voters, young people, minorities, and urban residents—must be re-energized. Ensuring that our messaging addresses economic concerns, public safety, and education will be critical to winning back these voters.

Invest in Battleground States: The shift in the seven key battleground states from 2020 to 2024 highlights the need for sustained investment in voter outreach and mobilization. Grassroots organizing, combined with data-driven strategies, must be a top priority to regain lost ground.

Counter GOP Gains in Key Demographics: Addressing the GOP’s growing appeal among Hispanic and Black voters requires authentic engagement and policy solutions that resonate with these communities. We must also work to build trust and counter disinformation that disproportionately affects these groups.

Focus on Local Elections: While Trump won at the top of the ticket, Democrats’ success down-ballot demonstrates the importance of investing in state and local races. These victories provide a foundation to rebuild momentum heading into the 2026 midterms.

Thank you for your support in this pivotal time.

No Dem Left Behind PAC

P.O. Box 15320

Washington, D.C. 20003