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Weekend Reads
How to Correct the Course of American Foreign Policy
One thing is clear about President Donald Trump’s foreign policy: America will have a stronger presence on the world stage.
Hudson experts have looked at President Trump’s record—and his statements since—to assess what to expect from the new administration’s policy toward China, Iran, and Russia. Their key takeaways are below.
Key Insights
1. Rather than trying to manage competition, President Trump was tough on China in his first term. But how he handles TikTok will be an important indicator.
When President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House on January 20, he will face one of the most important choices of his presidency: Will he continue the failed approach of engaging the Chinese Communist Party to change it, or will he adopt a new approach to America’s adversaries founded on strength and predicated on victory? Trump’s approach to the CCP in his first term was decidedly closer to the latter than the former. He hit Beijing with tough tariffs, punished China for its crackdown in Hong Kong, threatened President Xi Jinping with war if he attacked Taiwan, and called out the party’s genocide of Uyghurs in Xinjiang. Notably, Trump also tried to ban TikTok during his first term—an eminently justifiable step, given the threat Beijing’s control of the app poses to America’s democracy. Today, however, the president-elect is trying to save TikTok from a looming ban. How this issue plays out will be an early indicator of which path Trump takes.
Read Michael Sobolik’s op-ed “Biden’s China Failure Can Be Trump’s Success.”
2. President Trump will return to a strong Middle East policy, especially toward Iran.
“President Trump has already said he expects to be much more forceful here. He’s not bellicose, and I think he will be measured. And, in the past, he has been much more cautious than some people thought. The days of the United States’ withdrawing, making deals with terrorists, or making deals with Iran are over. And Iran is now in great danger, which is good for the region. I think the Iran nuclear program is still the target that has to be dealt with, and we’ll see how the Trump administration manages that. But this is an enormous opportunity. . . . I think President Trump will do everything he can to adjust attitudes here.”
— Hudson President and CEO John Walters
Watch Jonathan Hessen, Michael Doran, and John P. Walters on Deep Dive.
3. A tepid Ukraine policy has unnecessarily drawn out the war, and President Trump will not hand Putin an easy victory.
Reports from the September meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky were positive. And within 24 hours of Trump’s election victory on November 5, the two leaders had a phone conversation that Zelensky described as constructive. What’s more, a knee-jerk reaction on Ukraine from Trump is unlikely. While he repeatedly boasted on the campaign trail that he could resolve the war in 24 hours even before he officially took office, we know by now that this is classic Trump bluster. . . . Given the political stakes surrounding Ukraine—and Trump’s desire to be seen winning and projecting strength—it’s unlikely he will want to appear weak or easily manipulated by Russian President Vladimir Putin. A loss of Ukraine to Russia would be seen at home and abroad as a defeat for the United States and Trump by extension. This suggests that he will adopt a measured and deliberate approach when shaping his Ukraine policy, just like his team did regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Read Luke Coffey’s op-ed “Why Ukraine Is Ready to Gamble on Trump.”
Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.
Go Deeper
The second Trump administration could redefine America’s industrial future and not only bolster national security but also ensure long-term economic prosperity, restoring America’s position as a global manufacturing leader. Nadia Schadlow explains how.
Matt Boyse and three fellow former senior foreign service officers discussed how the Trump administration can reform the State Department to advance US interests as America’s geopolitical confrontation with China intensifies.
Walter Russell Mead predicts in the Wall Street Journal that US-China tensions will continue to rise because President Trump’s MAGA agenda can succeed only if the US and its allies curb China’s rise.
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