New York by the Numbers
Monthly Economic and Fiscal Outlook
No. 97 - January 15, 2025
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Photo Credit: Jim_Brown_Photography/Shutterstock
A Message from the Comptroller
Dear New Yorkers,
As we start the new year, job growth has continued nationwide. That’s true in New York City as well, although local numbers are flatter and lag behind national ones in sectors other than health care and social assistance. The city’s tourism industry has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, with Broadway attendance and overall hotel occupancy rate reaching their highest levels since the onset of the pandemic.
For New York City’s working families, affordability challenges remain severe. After housing (which we explored in three spotlights last year), child care is one of the biggest burdens. In this month’s Spotlight [[link removed]] , we examine child care in NYC: the economics, the supply of publicly funded options, and the potential economic benefits of free, universal child care.
From 2019 to 2024, the average cost of child care for infants and toddlers in family-based care grew a whopping 79% (to $18,200), and center-based care was up 43% (to $26,000) – while the growth in average hourly earnings was only 13%. The vast majority of low-income families eligible for subsidized child care for kids two and under don’t receive it. And even for families in PreK and 3K, most don’t receive a full day option, so parents are still stuck after 3 pm, or for the summer (when, alas, most parents still have to work).
So it’s no wonder that the population of children aged 0-3 in New York City declined by 19.3% between 2020 and 2023. Families with children are being crushed by the cost of child care, even as child care workers themselves have the lowest incomes of any care workers, just 45% of the NYC median income. Child care is not just a severe constraint for working families, but for the city’s economy as well.
Fortunately, more attention is being paid to this critical issue. Advocates like New Yorkers United for Child Care are pushing for free, universal child care in New York State. We find that universal provision of free or affordable, high-quality child care would not just provide relief to hundreds of thousands of working families struggling to make ends meet – it would also boost New York City’s labor supply, improve quality of life, likely lower outmigration, and put New York at the forefront of support for working families across the nation.
That’s worth watching the numbers.
[[link removed]]
Brad Lander
Table of Contents
* The U.S. Economy [[link removed]]
* New York City Economy [[link removed]]
* City Finances [[link removed]]
Highlights
* U.S. job growth picked up in December, and the unemployment rate edged down, signaling some strengthening in the labor market.


* Year to date, outside of the Health & Social Assistance sector, NYC has seen little or no net job creation. Moreover, over the nearly five years since the onset of the pandemic, New York City has lagged the nation in job growth in every other sector.


* On a more positive note, the proportion of New York City’s adult residents with jobs held steady near a record high in November, reflecting low unemployment and near-record labor force participation.


* Recently-released statewide population estimates for 2024, along with upward revisions to 2023, suggest that New York City’s population stabilized in 2023 and began to rebound in 2024.


* New York City’s commercial real estate sector continued to strengthen as 2024 drew to a close, with office leasing activity and rents picking up and availability rates trending down.


* Tourism has continued to strengthen, as indicated by hotel occupancy rates, room rates, and Broadway theatre attendance, all of which have reached post-pandemic highs in recent weeks.


* The number of asylum-seekers in City shelters continued to trend down in December, while the number of people in shelter who are not asylum-seekers continued to rise. The decline in NYC Shelter entrants is consistent with, and likely related to, the decline in southern U.S. border encounters since June.


* Annual bonus payments in December 2024 are estimated to have increased approximately 11% from a year earlier.


* With strong growth in Personal Income Tax and Pass-Through Entity Tax collections thus far in FY 2025 and an improved outlook for the months ahead, the Comptroller’s Office forecasts income taxes on individuals to exceed FY 2024 by 13.9%.
View the January Newsletter [[link removed]]
Spotlight
Child Care Affordability and the Benefits of Universal Provision
This month’s spotlight delves into the economics of child care in New York City, the supply of public and subsidized child care, and the economic benefits of universal provision.
View the Spotlight [[link removed]]
In Case You Missed It
Over the past month, the Office of Comptroller released the following announcements on the state of NYC’s economy and finances:
1. Annual State of the City’s Economy and Finances 2024 [[link removed]]
2. NEW AUDIT: NYCHA Eviction Processes [[link removed]]
3. NEW AUDIT: NYC Comptroller Releases Audit on Estate Asset Identification and Management Practices of Queens County Public Administrator’s Office [[link removed]]
4. NYC Comptroller Audit Letter to NYFD and DOB re Turkish House [[link removed]]
5. Safer for All: A Plan to End Street Homelessness for People with Serious Mental Illness in NYC [[link removed]]
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Office of the New York City Comptroller
Office of New York City Comptroller Brad Lander
1 Centre Street
New York, NY 10007
United States
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