Next week’s inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will mark the unofficial start of a year of global changes that will have profound repercussions for migrants and migrant-origin and destination communities worldwide. Trump, of course, has promised mass deportations and other policies to penalize unauthorized immigrants and their families, and potentially discourage various types of legal immigration. His team has planned a range of sweeping executive actions to begin in the hours after he takes office Monday, delivering a downpayment on the “shock and awe” promised by Trump allies. As we noted in our Top 10 Migration Issues of 2024, Trump’s election fits within a broader restrictionist turn on immigration in major industrialized countries that will almost surely continue well into 2025. Voters in Germany will go to the polls in February, in an election where immigration is featuring prominently. Polls show the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)—which has embraced the controversial term “remigration” in reference to its bid to return large numbers of asylum seekers and other immigrants—is the second most popular party. Its recent endorsement by Trump confidante Elon Musk may make the party somewhat more palatable to voters and allies in Washington and elsewhere. Still, given that other German political parties have refused to work with the AfD, it is unlikely to take power outright. Meanwhile in Canada, last week’s announcement that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was resigning was an acknowledgment of his mounting unpopularity due in part to a since-jettisoned plan to dramatically increase immigration despite escalating housing costs. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, currently favored to become the country’s next prime minister after elections later this year, has called for scaling back immigration to reduce population growth. Regardless of electoral outcomes, Canada already has unveiled a sweeping set of border security measures amid Trump's threats of tariffs. Elsewhere, national elections in Australia, Chile, Ecuador, Poland, and other countries with major immigrant populations will offer new datapoints on the extent to which the global anti-incumbency sentiment continues to prevail—while also having key impacts potentially on foreign-born residents. Leadership changes in North America and Europe will also have an impact on the future of Russia’s war in Ukraine and countries’ treatment of millions of displaced Ukrainians. Meanwhile, the late 2024 overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria raised the prospect of return for some of the millions of Syrian refugees abroad, although key questions about the new government’s posture have yet to be resolved, as my colleagues Samuel Davidoff-Gore and Susan Fratzke recently explained. The changes in Syria will be one of the most closely analyzed questions this year. What else will we be watching in 2025? Ongoing conflicts and state failure in Gaza, Haiti, Sudan, and elsewhere will be enormously consequential for forcibly displaced people. The number of humanitarian migrants globally may well again climb to record heights, as it has done for 12 years running. This year will certainly also have surprises. As we enter 2025, my colleagues and I look forward to exploring them with you. All the best, Julian Hattem
Editor, Migration Information Source
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