Plus: A new study on special education inclusion

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January 14, 2025
The Report
A newsletter from The Hechinger Report
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In today's edition: Higher education is about to go over the "demographic cliff ([link removed]) ." A new study ([link removed]) on special education inclusion. How child care eligibility rules ([link removed]) trap families in poverty.

An illustration of college students.

Credit: Illustration by Camilla Forte/ The Hechinger Report, Images via Getty Images

The current class of high school seniors is the last before a long decline begins in the number of 18-year-olds — the traditional age of students when they enter college.

This so-called demographic cliff has been predicted ever since Americans started having fewer babies at the advent of the Great Recession around the end of 2007 — a falling birth rate that has not recovered since, except for a slight blip after the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the Centers for Disease Control.

Demographers say it will finally arrive in the fall of this year. That’s when recruiting offices will begin to confront the long-anticipated drop-off in the number of applicants from among the next class of high school seniors.

But the downturn isn’t just a problem for universities and colleges. It’s a looming crisis for the economy, with fewer graduates eventually coming through the pipeline to fill jobs that require college educations, even as international rivals increase the proportions of their populations with degrees.

“The impact of this is economic decline,” Jeff Strohl, director of the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, said bluntly.
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New research

A prominent professor of special education is about to ignite a fierce debate over a tenet of his field, that students with disabilities should be educated as much as possible alongside their peers in general education classrooms, a strategy known as inclusion.

In a paper that reviews more than 50 years of research, Douglas Fuchs of Vanderbilt University and the American Institutes for Research, along with two colleagues at both institutions, argue that the academic benefits of including students with disabilities in general education classrooms are not settled science despite the fact that numerous studies have found that children with disabilities learn more that way. Fuchs said the paper is slated to be published this spring in the Journal of Learning Disabilities and he expects it to be made public online sooner.

“We’re not saying that the evidence indicates full inclusion cannot work,” said Fuchs. “We’re saying that the evidence in terms of where to place these children is extremely weak, is fundamentally flawed, and no conclusions can be drawn from the evidence.”
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This week's headlines


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As public colleges begin to merge or shut down, one state shows how hard it is ([link removed])
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Increasingly common public campus closings face political and community hostility



** Quitting jobs to qualify for child care ([link removed])
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How child care eligibility rules trap families in poverty



** TEACHER VOICE: Teaching can mean never-ending work days and nights, and we deserve to be paid for it ([link removed])
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It’s time for the Department of Labor to end the outdated exemption and grant overtime pay to teachers


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** OPINION: Some advice for president-elect Donald Trump: Invest in AI literacy across K-12 education ([link removed])
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If truly championing working-class America is a primary goal, investing in AI literacy across career pathways would be a great step



** The number of 18-year-olds is about to drop sharply, packing a wallop for colleges — and the economy ([link removed])
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America is about to go over the ‘demographic cliff’



** A little parent math talk with kids might really add up ([link removed])
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Mentioning numbers during everyday activities could be more beneficial than workbooks and exercises



** Top scholar says evidence for special education inclusion is ‘fundamentally flawed’ ([link removed])
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Analysis of 50 years of research argues that there isn’t strong evidence for the academic advantages of placing children with disabilities in general education classrooms

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