Daily News Brief

January 14, 2025

Top of the Agenda

Israel and Hamas are at their closest point in months to reaching a truce and hostage release agreement, Qatar’s foreign ministry said today. Officials from both sides have acknowledged progress toward a deal as talks continue in Doha with meditation by Qatar along with the United States and Egypt. Other such potential deals have collapsed multiple times over the course of more than fifteen months of fighting. Envoys for both U.S. President Joe Biden and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump have pressed for the current agreement in recent days. 

The draft deal resembles a three-phase agreement detailed by Biden in May, the Associated Press reported based on a copy of the draft verified by unnamed Egyptian and Hamas officials. It would reportedly begin with a six-week period that includes the gradual release of thirty-three Hamas-held hostages and potentially hundreds of Palestinian women and children detained by Israel. In this first phase, Israel would begin to withdraw from Gaza’s population centers, and displaced Palestinians could return to their homes. Some six hundred trucks of humanitarian aid would enter Gaza each day. The details of the subsequent phases still need to be negotiated during the first one.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is meeting today with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich—who voiced opposition to the cease-fire—in a test of Netanyahu’s ability to hold his governing coalition together if the deal moves forward. An unnamed Israeli official told CNN that Israel had “made all the compromises that are needed” for a deal, while two unnamed officials involved in the talks told the Associated Press that Hamas had accepted the draft. (WaPo, AP, CNN)

Analysis

“The degree of cooperation between the Biden and Trump administration is unprecedented. Although it is the Biden administration that's doing the bulk of the negotiating, never have an uninaugurated president and his yet-to-be official envoy played visible roles in a negotiation,” the Carnegie Endowment’s Aaron David Miller posts. ”Hamas needs a deal; Netanyahu [is] more willing to accept one as long as it doesn't end war; and uncertainties and pressures of a new [U.S.] administration is reinforcing odds of a limited deal.”

“2025 is going to be the year when the battle for Gaza actually begins, CFR expert Steven A. Cook writes for Foreign Policy. “Assuming an agreement is reached, the disposition of the Gaza Strip will become a major issue in the Middle East. Although various organizations, analysts, and governments have come up with a variety of plans for postwar Gaza, most of them are unrealistic.”

Read the full suite of Foreign Affairs and CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict.

United States

Prosecutors believed they had sufficient evidence to convict Donald Trump for attempting to overturn the outcome of the 2020 election had the case not been dropped, special counsel Jack Smith said in a report released overnight. Smith dismissed the case after Trump’s 2024 election victory, citing precedent against the prosecution of a sitting president. Trump called last night’s report “fake findings.” The incoming president has accused prosecutors in the case of being politically motivated, while Smith wrote that his team aimed to “follow the facts and law wherever they led.” (WSJ)

Senate confirmation hearings for cabinet members in the incoming Trump administration begin today in Washington with questioning of Secretary of Defense nominee Pete Hegseth this morning. (Axios)

Pacific Rim

The session today was adjourned in four minutes today when President Yoon Suk Yeol did not show. A new hearing is scheduled for Thursday and the court said it would proceed regardless of his presence. Yoon’s lawyers had previously said he would not attend the hearing over safety concerns. (Yonhap)

North Korea: Pyongyang fired missiles toward its eastern waters in its second such test launch ahead of Trump’s return to office this year. South Korea’s military called it a “clear provocation”; North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said at a year-end political conference that he would implement the “toughest anti-U.S. counteraction.” (AP, Kyodo)

South and Central Asia

India’s army chief described the situation on the border as “stable but sensitive” after each country pulled back troops last October, which de-escalated tensions following border clashes in 2020. He added that New Delhi will consider summer deployment based on the outcome of talks with Beijing. (Hindustan Times, Reuters)

Bangladesh: The Bangladesh Nationalist Party, one of the country’s main parties, called for new elections by August. An interim government has led the country since last August, when mass protests caused the former prime minister to resign and flee to India. Interim government leader Muhammad Yunus has said that elections could be possible by the end of this year but will depend on the passage of electoral reforms. (Reuters)

Middle East and North Africa

Nawaf Salam will leave the International Court of Justice to become Lebanon’s prime minister after two-thirds of Lebanon’s lawmakers backed him. That support did not include Hezbollah, which backed no candidate. Salam served for a decade as Lebanon’s permanent representative to the United Nations; his naming was expected to bolster international support for the new government, which also includes newly elected President Joseph Aoun. (BBC, AP)

In this Backgrounder, CFR’s Jonathan Masters looks at the powers vying for influence in Lebanon.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Four-time presidential candidate Kizza Besigye has been detained since November. If the military court convicts him of treachery, he faces the death penalty. Human rights groups have denounced the detention and trial, with Human Rights Watch saying it is an attempt “to clamp down on the opposition.” (AP)

For Africa in Transition, CFR expert Michelle Gavin writes that Uganda’s tightly controlled political environment has forced the opposition to be courageous.

Republic of Congo: President Denis Sassou Nguesso replaced the country’s finance minister as part of ongoing economic reforms. Last year a government money shortage led to cuts in public sector salaries. New finance leader Christian Yoka was formerly the head of the Africa department at the French Development Agency. (Bloomberg)

Europe

Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain called for the European Union (EU) to lift sanctions in sectors including transportation, energy, and banking, according to a document seen by Reuters. They suggested a snapback sanctions mechanism in place of sanctions if Syria’s new government does not meet the bloc’s human rights expectations. The United States issued a sanctions exemption for Syria last week. (Reuters)

France/Germany/UK/Iran: The three European countries as well as Iran characterized talks about Iran’s nuclear program as “frank and constructive.” It was the second round of such talks in as many months. The European countries said in a joint statement they were committed to a “diplomatic solution” to Iran’s nuclear capabilities. (AFP)

For The Water’s Edge, CFR expert James M. Lindsay discusses how the Trump administration could approach Iran. 

Americas

Mexico will offer new government benefits for local industry, plus incentives for factories oriented toward the U.S. market which move to Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum said. Her government recently introduced tariffs on clothing and other textiles from China. (Bloomberg, FT)

Peru: A court suspended the money laundering trial of former presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori, saying there were errors in the indictment. Fujimori, the daughter of ex-President Alberto Fujimori, is the head of an influential right-wing party and had faced a potential prison sentence of up to thirty years. (AFP, Reuters)

Correction: Yesterday’s Daily News Brief incorrectly stated the city in which Iranian businessman Mohammed Abedini was jailed. It was Milan, not Tehran. 

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