Daily News Brief

January 13, 2025

Top of the Agenda

Big buyers of Russian oil such as China and India are looking to source supplies from elsewhere after a sweeping package of U.S. sanctions announced Friday, traders and analysts told Reuters. Global crude oil prices rose both Friday and today following the new restrictions, which covered two major Russian oil producers and 183 ships used for trading. The move goes beyond previous efforts to stymie Russia’s oil revenues after it invaded Ukraine, including a price cap on Russian oil imposed by Group of Seven countries in December 2022. Western officials stopped short of broader sanctions at the time due to concerns about inflation, which was already high because of the coronavirus pandemic—but U.S. officials now say global oil markets are better-supplied and thus more resistant to inflation. 

The aggressive new sanctions are part of the outgoing Joe Biden administration’s efforts to put Ukraine in a strong negotiating position for potential talks on ending the war with Russia. Meanwhile, on the battlefield, Ukraine said it had captured two North Koreans fighting alongside Russia. The country is ready to exchange them for its own detained fighters, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. (Reuters, WSJ, Bloomberg)

Analysis

“There is no doubt that Russia’s economy is brittle—highly vulnerable to external shocks, such as a steep decline in commodities prices, and operating with a narrow margin for error. For Western policy, the upshot is clear: if Putin’s territorial ambitions can be contained—and sanctions are tightened—Russia’s economy will eventually face a reckoning, presenting a window for serious diplomacy,” Columbia University’s Edward Fishman writes for CFR.

“The ultimate goal of curtailing what effectively amounts to between one-third and one-half of the active Russian [oil shipping] shadow fleet is not to chase those ships from the sea entirely or to remove those barrels of Russian oil from the market. Rather, it is to herd those illicit vessels back into the confines of the Western-led, -insured, and -regulated maritime market, which includes a price cap,” Foreign Policy’s Keith Johnson and Amy Mackinnon write. 

“Friday’s measures move well beyond previous sanctions measures the US has rolled out against Russia as part of efforts to choke off its war machine following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While Trump could lift the sanctions at any time, he may find it politically unpalatable to do so given the broad bipartisan support in Washington for Ukraine,” Bloomberg’s Daniel Flatley, Jenny Leonard, and Julian Lee write.

Pacific Rim

The preliminary rule released today aims to slow China and other adversaries’ advancement in artificial intelligence (AI), though critics say it could make the United States less competitive in the sector. The controls would leave sales of powerful chips and AI software unrestricted for allies of the United States, while making it banned for adversaries such as China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia, and subject to quotas and registration requirements for other countries, a category that includes India and most of the world. The rule is subject to a 120-day comment period to allow the incoming Donald Trump administration to weigh in. (Nikkei, WaPo)

China/Japan/UK: Separately, officials from Japan and the United Kingdom (UK) reopened high-level dialogues with China in recent days. China and the UK restarted economic talks Saturday that had not occurred since 2019, while Japan’s ruling party and its coalition partner sent a delegation to China for talks today that had not occurred since 2018. Officials from both Japan and the UK said they sought to stabilize their country’s relationship with China. (AP, Kyodo) 

South and Central Asia

U.S. President Joe Biden spoke yesterday to the families of Ryan Corbett, George Glezmann, and Mahmood Habibi about efforts to bring them home from Afghanistan. The Taliban publicly denies holding Habibi, but is considering a proposal to release the three men in exchange for Muhammad Rahim al-Afghani, a high-profile detainee that the United States is holding in Guantánamo Bay, unnamed sources told Reuters. (Reuters)

Myanmar: The military government struck a village in Myanmar’s western Rakhine state, killing dozens and destroying five hundred homes, the United Nations and Myanmar’s shadow government in exile said. The junta has in the past claimed that it only targets “terrorists.” (Reuters)

Middle East and North Africa

Italy’s justice minister revoked the detention of Iranian businessman Mohammed Abedini, who was jailed in Tehran due to U.S. accusations that he illegally supplied Iranian drone makers. Abedini’s release came days after that of Italian journalist Cecilia Sala, who was detained in Tehran—also just days after Abedini’s jailing. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said Sala’s release was the result of coordination with the United States and Iran. (FT, WSJ)

Lebanon/Syria: Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati called for joint work in regard to border security and the return of more than one million Syrian refugees currently in Lebanon during his first meeting with Syria’s transitional leader Ahmad al-Shara. Last week, Syrian militants fired at Lebanese soldiers on the shared border, prompting a phone call between the two leaders; al-Shara said the Syrian authorities were working to restore calm. (NYT)

Sub-Saharan Africa

The leaders agreed to restore full diplomatic representation in each other’s capitals, which had been restricted after a controversial deal between Ethiopia and the breakaway region of Somaliland. Turkey mediated the rapprochement. (Bloomberg)

Sudan: Rebel group Rapid Support Forces acknowledged that the Sudanese army has recaptured the city of Wad Madani, which the rebels had held since 2023. The city is an agricultural and trading hub. The push comes as the army also reclaimed Sudan’s second largest city, Omdurman, last week. (Sudan Tribune, Al Jazeera)

This article by CFR’s Sabine Baumgartner and Mariel Ferragamo looks at the war in Sudan.

Europe

Thousands of people demonstrated on Saturday against a court’s December annulment of the November first round of the country’s presidential election. A far-right populist unexpectedly won that vote, but Romania’s president later declassified intelligence saying Russia had organized thousands of social media accounts to support that candidate. The court ruled that an unnamed candidate had received “preferential support.” A new election round is scheduled for May 4. (RFE/RL, AP)

Americas

Canada has counter-tariffs ready if Trump follows through on his proposal to apply new duties on Canadian imports, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said. Canada matched Trump’s tariffs with measures of its own during Trump’s first term. (Bloomberg)

U.S./Canada/Mexico: Canada and Mexico both sent teams of firefighters to help battle the fires in Los Angeles in an expression of solidarity, their leaders said. (WaPo) 

CFR Senior Fellow Varun Sivaram explains how the LA fires spell a need for climate realism. 

United States

Certain immigrants from El Salvador, Sudan, Ukraine, Venezuela will have eighteen more months of protection from deportation under Biden’s new extension of Temporary Protected Status (TPS). The move could slow Trump’s efforts to quickly enact mass deportations. Trump sought to undo some TPS protections during his first administration but was blocked in the courts. (Politico) 

CFR’s Diana Roy unpacks TPS and other immigration terms to know.

Two U.S. intelligence agencies changed their position on a spate of anomalous health incidents formerly known as Havana Syndrome, a new intelligence report said. They now assess it could have been caused by a foreign adversary, contradicting a previous joint intelligence community stance. (WSJ)

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