Earth Breached 1.5°C Threshold of Warming Last Year, EU Climate Service Says |
The world’s average temperature over the course of 2024 was 1.6°C above preindustrial levels, the European Union (EU) climate monitoring service said today. The metric—reflecting a new hottest year on record—reveals how close Earth has come to blowing past a main goal of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, in which countries pledged efforts to limit warming to an average of 1.5°C (2.7°F). That target is generally accepted to refer to a measurement over the course of two decades. The consequences of this heating trajectory in 2024 included “unprecedented heatwaves and heavy rainfall events, causing misery for millions of people,” a deputy director of the EU monitoring service said.
The release of the data comes days before the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose team is reportedly considering steps to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement. That move has prompted opposition not only from climate scientists but also from the CEO of ExxonMobil, who said “we need a global system for managing global emissions.” (FT, The Guardian, BBC, NYT)
|
|
|
“Hitting 1.5°C is like watching the first domino fall in a devastating chain reaction,” Reading University’s Patrick McGuire tells the Financial Times. “We’re playing with fire. Every fraction of a degree unleashes more intense storms, longer droughts and deadlier heatwaves.”
“A year of extreme weather showed just how dangerous life is at 1.5°C. The Valencia floods, U.S. hurricanes, the Philippines typhoons, and Amazon drought are just four disasters last year that were worsened by climate change. There are many, many more,” Imperial College London’s Friederike Otto tells The Guardian.
“Climate realism starts by acknowledging the hard reality that the world is virtually certain to miss climate targets,” CFR Senior Fellow Varun Sivaram writes. “By pragmatically focusing on adaptation and by elevating the reduction of global climate-warming emissions as a top-tier U.S. foreign policy and national security priority, the United States may be able to avert the most apocalyptic outcomes.”
|
| |
Japanese Foreign Minister to Visit Seoul For First Time in Seven Years |
Iwaya Takeshi will “reconfirm” Japan’s security alignment with South Korea, the Japanese government said. Despite historic tensions, the countries have strengthened ties in recent years; a 2023 pact increased trilateral security cooperation with the United States. (Reuters)
U.S./China: Beijing plans to send a high-level envoy to Trump’s inauguration, unnamed sources told the Financial Times. That marks a step up from China’s usual representation from its ambassador at a U.S. presidential swearing-in. (FT)
This CFR timeline looks back at a complicated U.S.-China relationship. |
| |
India Revises Import Data After Reporting Blunder Suggested Record Deficit |
India’s currency fell to an all-time low after the trade deficit was reported to be at a record high last November. But New Delhi has now amended those deficit figures downwards, saying a data transmission error was to blame. (Bloomberg)
Afghanistan/Pakistan: Pakistan is hosting a conference on girls’ education in Muslim countries this weekend and invited Afghanistan—the only country where girls are banned from school—to participate. Nobel laureate Malala Yousafzai is due to attend. (Express Tribune, AFP)
CFR’s Clara Fong and Noël James connect the dots on how Taliban rule is igniting a movement to end gender apartheid.
|
|
|
Middle East and North Africa |
Lebanon’s New President Says Only Government Should Bear Arms |
Joseph Aoun’s statement yesterday was widely seen as alluding to the power that Hezbollah holds within the country, though he relied on support by Hezbollah lawmakers to be elected. The teams of U.S. President Joe Biden and incoming President Trump had coordinated to push for Aoun’s election, unnamed sources told Axios. (WaPo, Axios)
Israel/Poland: Poland will ensure “safe participation” for senior Israeli officials—including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—who choose to travel to the country for the eightieth anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz-Birkenau death camp, Warsaw said. Poland is a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu that accuses him of crimes against humanity. (AP)
In this Backgrounder, CFR explores the origins and ongoing role of the ICC.
|
|
|
CFR’s Robert McMahon and Carla Anne Robbins discuss Pete Hegseth’s upcoming Senate confirmation hearing for defense secretary, the Supreme Court weighing the fate of TikTok, the future of U.S.-Canada trade relations, and more. |
| |
|
China, Nigeria Elevate Ties |
The two countries will increase their cooperation in security, finance, and clean energy, their foreign ministers said today. Beijing will also lend support for Abuja to build out its infrastructure and study its request for a currency swap agreement. (Reuters) Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar spoke to CFR on his country’s global ambitions.
Sudan: Doctors Without Borders suspended its activities at one of the last standing hospitals in the capital of Khartoum due to repeated attacks, the group said. Armed fighters have entered and threatened staff “despite extensive engagements with all stakeholders.” (Reuters, AFP)
|
|
|
Ukraine’s Backers Pledge $2 Billion in Aid, Zelenskyy Says |
Western allies met at Ramstein Air Base in Germany yesterday to discuss support for Ukraine. Separately, Trump yesterday said he was working to set up a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the war without specifying when it might be. (Reuters, BBC)
Armenia: The government approved a bill that would kick off its process for applying for European Union membership, Interfax reported. The final decision on membership would include a national referendum. A traditional ally of Russia, Armenia’s step forward into the EU orbit has drawn ire from Moscow. (Bloomberg)
|
| |
Venezuelan Opposition Figure Briefly Detained Ahead of Maduro’s Inauguration |
Opposition figure María Corina Machado was detained and then released following her appearance yesterday at a protest against today’s swearing-in of President Nicolás Maduro. The full circumstances of the detention were not immediately clear. Maduro is being inaugurated for a third term today after a disputed election that the United States, EU, and several Latin American countries say his opponent won. (NYT, WaPo)
CFR expert Will Freeman explains how Latin America has the opportunity to send a message to Venezuela.
Canada: The ruling Liberal Party set March 9 last night as the date it will choose its next leader, and thus Canada’s future prime minister, following the resignation announcement of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. (CBC)
|
| |
Supreme Court Set to Hear Oral Arguments Today on Potential Forced Divestiture of TikTok |
TikTok could be shut down in the United States by January 19 unless the court blocks a law that would force its sale by its Chinese parent company ByteDance. Lawmakers passed the ban on national security concerns, while TikTok says such a ban violates free speech protections. Trump originally supported the TikTok ban, but has spoken out against it in recent days. (CBS)
CFR expert Adam Segal and CFR’s Zoë Moore unpack the controversy around TikTok’s future.
|
|
|
58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065 |
1777 F Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006 |
|
|
|
