The Coming Thaw

The once-warm relationship between the United States and Canada has cooled in the past decade. But despite harsh rhetoric on both sides of the border these days, things are well positioned for a major reset. Indeed, the rightward shift in Washington and the coming move to the right in Ottawa offers a perfect opportunity to strengthen our necessary alliance.

After a nine-year tenure, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation following a collapse in support. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has dominated the polls for months, driven by his commitment to “commonsense” economic reforms, and he’s widely expected to become Canada’s next head of government after the next federal election. In American terms, he’s more Ron DeSantis than Donald Trump, best demonstrated in a viral interview where he calmly chomps on an apple as he destroys a hostile reporter.

Canadian politics aren’t exactly known for their excitement, but the Trudeau years sure created some drama. After a century of friendship, a progressive Canada has diverged from the U.S. both economically and culturally. This all seems alien to most Americans.

Back in his stand-up comedy days, Jon Stewart related a conversation with a Canadian fan. “What do Americans really think about Canada?” a woman asked. Stewart replied, “We don’t.” And for the past century, there wasn’t much need to.

When Americans considered their northern neighbor, they saw a slightly more British and polite version of ourselves. As a child, my grandparents would drive me from their home in Sault Ste. Marie, Mich., to spend a day in Sault Ste. Marie, Ont. Sure, the traffic signs looked odd and the currency was more colorful, but the cities looked about the same on both sides of the International Bridge.

That perspective is no longer the reality thanks to Trudeau’s increasing antagonism toward both America and her ideals. His primary victim, of course, was Canada herself.

Let’s start with economics. Between 2009 and 2019, America’s GDP grew by 27%, while Canada’s expanded by 25%. Par for the course. Since then, however, America’s economy has grown by 11%, while Canada’s has only grown by 6%. And over the course of Trudeau’s tenure, his country’s national debt increased about 180%.

According to the IMF, Canada’s per capita income has fallen to about 70% of America’s, compared to 80% just five years ago. That makes Canada now the economic equivalent of Alabama, the fourth-poorest state in the union. Meanwhile, the Great White North’s unemployment rate has risen to 6.8%, a figure that has steadily grown over the past 18 months. For the U.S., it’s just 4.2%.

This economic divergence is all the more startling, given the $2 billion in trade that crosses our common border daily, along with 400,000 people, and that 90% of all Canadians live within 100 miles of the U.S. border. A citizen’s financial life today is very different depending on which side of the International Bridge they live. (And if you’re going to cross it, a gallon of gas is about a dollar cheaper in Sault Ste. Marie, Mich.)

The cultural divergence is hard to measure but even harder not to notice. The reign of Justin dramatically shifted Canada to the left, just as his father Pierre’s did a generation earlier.

Trudeau fils harshly punished dissent against Canada’s restrictive COVID-19 mandates, jailing pastors and even freezing the bank accounts of its critics. He also tried to criminalize any “communication that expresses detestation or vilification of an individual or group of individuals on the basis of a prohibited ground of discrimination.”

In 2021, Trudeau’s Liberal government pushed a scandalous claim that a mass grave of 215 children was discovered beside a religious residential school for First Nations students. The result was a mob-fueled pogrom in which 112 Canadian churches were vandalized or burned down. Years after the fact, no evidence has been found of the supposed graves, yet Trudeau hasn’t backed down from the allegation.

Canada also has distanced itself from American foreign policy, embracing a more passive role with both China and Israel. It did align more or less with Biden’s environmental agenda, soft-on-crime policies, passion for gun control and ethical failures. But those aren’t selling with voters in either country.

President-elect Trump responded to Trudeau’s hostility with threats, which sounded less like intended outcomes than opening offers for negotiation. Trump proposed a 25% tariff on all Canadian goods and repeatedly joked about the Great White North becoming our 51st state. But this is the same Trump who, in his first term, worked closely with Canada and Mexico to replace NAFTA with the USMCA, an agreement that benefitted all three nations.

As Trudeau stumbled off the stage, Poilievre promised to respond to any tariffs by fighting “fire with fire,” while at the same time pushing to increase Canadian exports to the U.S. Both nations will benefit from constructive economic engagement, a fact the two new leaders will be eager to accept.

Trump and Poilievre also agree on stronger border controls to fight illegal immigration, drug trafficking and terrorism. While Trump shouts “America first,” Poilievre responds with “Canada first.”

A robust military is also promised by both leaders, where the need for close collaboration is obvious. Gone are the days of a military focused more on gender inclusivity than readiness, especially given the threats posed by China and Russia.

No doubt Trump will be a challenging personality for Poilievre to handle, but the expected Canadian PM is far more politically aligned with the president-elect than Trudeau could ever hope to be. Both nations will pursue their aims with a cautious pragmatism, finding common ground in policy while clashing in personal temperament.

A resurgent Canada will even lead to beneficial competition between the two nations. Coming from Alberta, the Texas of the north, Poilievre will likely prioritize drilling for oil and increased mining, further motivating the U.S. to do likewise. He’s also expected to greenlight energy projects to strengthen Canada’s position as a reliable energy partner for its southern neighbor.

Right now, the big question is when will a new prime minister take office? Trudeau remains a caretaker prime minister but has prorogued Parliament until March. Canadian law requires a new election by October, but the Liberal Party first needs to choose a leader. Until Poilievre actually assumes the high office, expect a lot more “51st state” memes from Team Trump.