In the year of global elections, here's what set Taiwan, Venezuela, Romania, and the US apart.

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** Not All Elections Are Created Equal
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In the year of global elections, here's what set Taiwan, Venezuela, Romania, and the US apart.

January 9, 2025

By Evan Gottesman and Sohan Mewada

In 2024, over 70 countries and the European Union held elections. More than 1.6 billion people voted—the largest number of humans to ever join in the ritual of choosing our leaders. Democracy is impossible without fair and free elections. They show that power is vested in the people, not a monarch or strongman.

Some of the elections held in the past year were exemplary democratic performances. Others were just performances, institutional window dressing for dictators. In one case, an established democracy completely annulled a presidential election. And then, of course, there was America.

So, a little bit of everything.

Plenty of others have profiled each and every election that took place last year. Since RDI’s Democracy Brief is not intended as a sleep aid, we’re instead looking at just four elections, all held under vastly different conditions with hugely varied results: Taiwan, Venezuela, Romania, and America. We’ll tell you what sets them apart and why they matter.

Taiwan Resisted China’s Pull

In Taiwan, elections aren’t decided by debate over normal kitchen table issues like whether or not you believe in vaccines or misinformation about dog-eating migrants. Instead, relations with China largely define the political spectrum. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) takes a more independent stance, while its rival, the Kuomintang, prefers closer ties to Beijing. Last January, the East Asian nation chose a successor to President Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP, whose bold posture toward the mainland defined her tenure.

DPP candidate Lai Ching-te—Tsai’s VP—won the presidential race. While the DPP took a hit in the legislature, they nevertheless held on with a minority government. That’s significant for two reasons. In the Taiwanese context, a DPP victory means a rejection of China’s threatening overtures. Internationally, it bucks the much-discussed anti-incumbent trend, reminding us that people decide elections, not academic theories or projections.

Taiwan’s election is also remarkable considering the shadow the CCP casts over the island. China wages disinformation and cognitive warfare campaigns ([link removed]) there, yet the Taiwanese public remains fairly resilient against disinformation ([link removed]) thanks to a combination of civil society and government-run initiatives. New technologies and escalating Chinese harassment will test that resilience. And, of course, it’s difficult to say how the country’s institutions would function should China invade. For now, however, Taiwan’s democracy soldiers on in the face of incredible odds, and that is a win in our book.

A Venezuelan Dictator Rigged an Election and Lost

In another era, dictators styled themselves as emperors and kings. Now, even the worst despots put on a pretense of democracy, what The Atlantic’s Brian Klaas unflatteringly bills as “election-style events.” ([link removed]) This election theater allows autocrats to showcase public support, claim a bit of legitimacy, and divide and co-opt opponents.

So it was in Venezuela, where authoritarian ruler Nicolas Maduro ran against Edmundo González Urrutia in an election marred by top-down interference. In fact, Gonzàlez wasn’t even the first candidate to run against Maduro in the 2024 cycle. The government actually blocked two previous contenders—Corina Yonis and María Corina Machado. Venezuelan dissident David Smolansky told The Democracy Brief in September that “almost five million people…were banned from voting ([link removed]) .”

The charade of democracy can yield benefits for dictators. But they also run risks in organizing Potemkin elections. If enough people go to the polls—or at least try to—then they may call the regime’s bluff when the dictator inevitably declares victory, as Maduro naturally did.

In Venezuela’s case, years of economic ruin, food insecurity, and corruption took their toll. Venezuelans showed up in droves to vote, and the results spoke for themselves. The opposition was able to assess data from polling stations to demonstrate that Maduro lost and Gonzàlez won—data that has since been independently verified ([link removed]) . Sadly, it’s hard for that proof to compete with lethal violence ([link removed]) , and Maduro continues to cling to office.

The bravery of the Venezuelan people still matters in the long run. The fact that they turned up to vote despite state repression demonstrated to the world how brittle Maduro’s operation really is and transformed what could have been a propaganda coup into a public diplomacy disaster.

Romanians Canceled Democracy to… Save Democracy?

The election that was, and then wasn’t—that’s the story of Romania’s 2024 presidential race. Romania is a “free country” by most measures—it actually shares a rating equal to the United States on Freedom House’s famous democracy map ([link removed]) . But last year, it actually canceled an election outcome altogether.

In November, Kremlin-friendly presidential candidate Calin Georgescu came out on top in the first round vote. Then, the country’s Constitutional Court annulled the results, citing Russian interference, and called for a complete redo. Romania’s intelligence services brought forth evidence of Russian cyberattacks and social media manipulation, since confirmed by the country’s sitting president and parliament. The drama has escalated to the European Union, with Brussels pursuing the matter with TikTok ([link removed]) .

Overturning the results of a democratic election is serious business, but then, so is meddling by a hostile foreign power. Whether canceling the vote was the right way to handle Russia’s influence campaign is for Romanians to decide, and the decision was indeed divisive ([link removed]) . Even Georgescu’s liberal opponent, Elena Lasconi, condemned ([link removed]) the court’s move.

From the American perspective, it’s easy to declare that annulling the election results was the wrong route. Of course, the US is the world’s premier superpower and our neighbors are Canada and Mexico. Romania, by contrast, is a relatively small country that sits next to two nations partly occupied by Russia—Moldova and Ukraine. In this context, the Romanian high court’s approach is understandable if far from conclusively correct. Georgescu will likely run—and could still win—in the makeup election, now set for May ([link removed]) .

Ultimately, Russia puts its targets in a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” position. Take an aggressive stand in defending your sovereignty—as Romania did in annulling suspect election results—and Moscow will cynically brand you as an enemy of democracy, meaning, at least just as bad as Russia. On the other hand, if you ignore Russian troublemaking today, Russian domination may be unavoidable tomorrow.

Protecting democracy is complicated. All the more so when facing down amoral nuclear-armed rogues for whom no dirty trick is off limits.

America Sneezed

The saying in the nineteenth century was that when France sneezes, Europe catches cold. Two hundred years later, it’s the United States at the center of global geopolitics, with an influence far outpacing the French of the early 1800s. So when America sneezes, the entire world is bound to catch something nasty, especially if Health Secretary-designee RFK Jr. gets his way.

And in November America sneezed. Donald Trump was re-elected. You’ve heard it all before: Despite the insurrection of January 6. Despite his threats against political opponents. Despite the felony conviction and ongoing criminal cases. Yet Trump did not win under Venezuela-style conditions: Kamala Harris represented the incumbent regime and the American election was free and fair. It’s a stark reminder that democratic institutions don’t always produce leaders who respect them.

Americans alarmed by Trump’s authoritarian bent, as we are, might be tempted to ask why a Romanian solution isn’t in order here. Suspend democracy to save democracy. Yet while the Romanian security services produced evidence that direct Russian interference materially impacted the Eastern European nation’s election outcome, the US. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency ([link removed]) reported on November 6 that it had “no evidence of any malicious activity that had a material impact on the security or integrity of [American] election infrastructure.” That’s not to say that hostile foreign actors don’t try to stir the pot in US politics—they absolutely do ([link removed]) —it’s simply that their impact was far from decisive.

Which brings us to a morbidly pragmatic consideration. Calin Georgescu won just over a fifth of the vote in a six-way-race. Donald Trump is genuinely liked by roughly half the country. Even if there were a compelling case to reverse his win, we would need to contend with the accompanying prospect of civil war.

Donald Trump is going to be president of the United States again in a week and a half. When he returns to the White House, our responsibility shifts. We can’t afford to throw up our hands in righteous indignation. Too many other countries depend on the US for their security. Budding democracies look to us as an example. Refugees from authoritarian persecution come to us for shelter. Yes, America is sick, but the answer is not to leave her to languish but to contain and cure Trumpism.

In a year that can generously be described as a mixed bag, the presidential election in Taiwan stood out as one of the brighter spots on the map. Americans should recall that Taiwan—now a model democracy—was a single-party dictatorship in the not-so-distant past. When surrender feels tempting over the next four years, remember that others have endured worse and persevered.

The year of elections is over. But voting is only the second-most important action you can take in a democracy. It’s what you do every day that ensures that we have the freedom to pick our leaders in the first place.




** The Bottom Line
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1. “Did democracy survive the 2024 global election marathon?” asked The Guardian ([link removed]) . Well, voter turnout rose for the first time in almost 20 years, and yet democratic cornerstones like freedom of speech, equality of participation, and plurality of media, faced near unprecedented threats.

2. It wasn’t just Democrats in the US. Throughout the world, 2024 was a “graveyard for incumbents,” observed the Financial Times ([link removed]) .

3. Right before the US election, almost half of Americans (45%) reported believing that the nation’s democracy does not do a good job representing ordinary people, and over 3/4 (76%) that democracy is under threat, a New York Times/Siena poll found ([link removed]) .

4. “I worry that all too many Americans have succumbed to the Trumpian cult, either accepted him as the savior against our enemies or convinced themselves that it’s mostly talk, and it won’t be so bad if he wins. That is how democracy in America can die,” Ivo Daalder wrung his hands ([link removed]) about the US in an essay entitled “An American by Choice.”

5. After Russia’s so-called elections, Putin’s victory rally made the year of elections “feel less like an international celebration of democracy” and more like “an extended wake,” wrote Ben Rhodes in the New York Review of Books ([link removed]) .

6. Liberals’ fears that 2024 would “reflect the global triumph of illiberal populism” were proved wrong, Francis Fukuyama opined in Foreign Affairs ([link removed]) . “Populist and authoritarian parties and leaders made gains in some countries, but they lost in others.”



** NEW RELEASE: Crazy, Epic, Courage
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Evan Mawarire is one the most important political dissidents of our time.

A humble pastor in Zimbabwe, Mawarire started the #ThisFlag movement in Zimbabwe almost by accident. He chose to boldly call out corruption, injustice, and poverty, and it struck a chord with the people of Zimbabwe. Mawarrie and the #ThisFlag movement were instrumental in unseating Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator Robert Mugabe.

Bits and pieces of Mawarire’s story have been covered countless times in Zimbabwean and international media, but the full story has yet to be told. That is until now.

In the coming days, Mawarire will recount the whirlwind journey that took him from his kitchen table struggling to pay the bills through protests and arrests, success and exile in his new book titled “Crazy Epic Courage: How a ‘Nobody’ Challenged Brutal Dictators and Moved a Nation.”

“Writing this book and telling this story in full is the closing of a chapter for me,” Mawarire told The Democracy Brief.

Crazy Epic Courage takes the reader behind the scenes to witness the birth of a freedom movement. RDI Chairman Garry Kasparov sees a universal lesson in Mawarire’s tale:

“Crazy Epic Courage is a remarkable story by and about a remarkable man, but the real message is that the courage to overcome evil lies within us all, it only requires a spark. Tyrants cannot rule us without our permission, and Evan’s alternately brutal and uplifting tale shows how we can, and must, withhold that consent and fight for the liberty and dignity that all people deserve. Read it, be inspired by it, and find your own spark.”

To get notified about the book's release and preview the first three chapters ahead of time,sign up here. ([link removed])

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