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Edited by: James Desio and Carter Hutchinson

Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine the case for a more targeted approach on tariffs, East Asia’s coming population collapse, and the record increase in American homelessness.

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1.  Targeting Tariffs

Topline: President-elect Donald Trump’s intention to raise tariffs across the board on Canada, China, and Mexico—America’s three largest trading partners, responsible for more than a third of US imports—won’t deliver the benefits he ascribes to them, writes AEI’s Aaron Friedberg. Instead, the US should embrace a more targeted approach focused on defending US interests and pushing back on China’s coercive trade practices.

More Targeted Tariffs: Tariffs can be an effective tool in combating Chinese mercantilism, especially if implemented in conjunction with other nations. Friedberg argues the US should raise duties on goods critical to US defense, health, and economic functioning; crack down on tariff evasion; and build a trade coalition with major allies.

“Trump sees tariffs as a sort of Swiss Army knife: an all-purpose tool capable of fixing any problem. But large, across-the-board duties of the sort that he is proposing will not achieve the beneficial effects that he has ascribed to them.” —Aaron Friedberg

2.  East Asia's Population Inflection Point

Topline: East Asia’s population is set to decline dramatically by 2100, shifting its absolute demographic balance with the US – whose population is set to keep growing for decades. AEI’s Nicholas Eberstadt compares East Asia's demographic fate with America’s rise and illustrates that the shift has major implications for the world.

Headed in Different Directions: By 2100, East Asia’s population is projected to decline by 54%. The United States’ population is projected to rise by 24% in that same time frame.

Deja Vu: China, Japan, and South Korea have all experienced long-term depopulations. The impending East Asian depopulation is different for two reasons:

• The coming depopulation is systemic, not episodic.
• The coming depopulation is fundamentally different from any that preceded it.

“Exponential decay of population numbers over long periods of time can transform the international stage and shift the global balance. It looks as if the US and East Asia are witnessing one of these transformations now." —Nicholas Eberstadt

3.  Increasing American Homelessness

Topline: In 2024, the US experienced a record spike in homelessness. AEI’s Kevin Corinth highlights that American homelessness increased by 18%—the highest rate since national homelessness counts began 17 years ago. The US never recorded an increase of more than 3% annually until 2023.

The epicenter of the crisis: Driven by rising immigration, New York City (+77,352), Chicago (+14,590), the Massachusetts “Balance of State” Continuum of Care (+8,100), and Metropolitan Denver (+6,556) accounted for approximately 72% of the total increase.

Moving Forward: Solving the homelessness crisis will require combination of strategies, like increased pressure to move off the street and more effective shelter and housing options. Larger policy conversations, like border control, will also have an impact on sheltered homelessness.

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