Someone Please Tell Jerome Powell the Inflation Dragon Is Still Rearing Its Ugly Head
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Unleash Prosperity Hotline
Issue #1177
01/08/2025
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1) Someone Please Tell Jerome Powell the Inflation Dragon Is Still Rearing Its Ugly Head
We've been warning that headlines like this one from Reuters yesterday were right around the corner:
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We don't like being killjoys, but the one thing that could derail the Trump presidency right from the start would be another burst of inflation.
The Fed isn't doing the economy or the incoming Trump administration any favors by resuming its loosey-goosey monetary policy.
We all love low interest rates - especially Trump - but inflation is headed north again. Over the past three months commodity prices are up roughly 6%, and that's not stable money. Notice the trend in these charts:
Here is the six-month CRB commodity index reading.
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We also like to look at the 10-year Treasury interest rate. Since the Fed began lowering rates, that interest rate has RISEN by nearly one percentage point.
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The gold price has held steady in recent months at around $2,650 an ounce, but over the past year the gold price is up 30%. That is anything BUT price stability.
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Then there is the 30-year mortgage rate. Did anyone notice the rate rose back above 7%?
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On the plus side, the ten-year tips spread - the inflation-protected interest rate - is still at 2.4%. That's hardly alarming.
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The good news is that Trump's supply side policies - tax cuts, deregulation, and energy production - are just the right antidote to inflation. That can't come soon enough.
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2) Elon Musk Is Going to Need A Chainsaw
This updated historical chart from Steve Moore's book Govzilla is a bucket of cold water wake-up call about how our federal budget keeps relentlessly expanding.
After adjusting for inflation and accounting for population growth, Uncle Sam is now spending nearly $18k per person! That number has nearly doubled in the last 24 years.
Are federal services twice as good as they were in 2000? No. In many cases (education and road conditions, for example) they are worse.
Spending is taxation. You pay now or you and your children pay later. Trump is going to need a chainsaw to restore fiscal sanity in Washington.
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3) The Right Is Starting To Dominate Social Media
We're pleased as peacocks that Meta has announced ([link removed]) the censors and left-biased "fact checkers" are going away. We love Mark Zuckerberg's pronouncement that he wants Facebook and Instagram to be "free speech platforms." We will trust but verify that these pronouncements aren't just empty rhetoric.
Many of our friends on the right have justifiably complained of the historical big tech bias against conservatives, but my how the winds have shifted. We mentioned previously that Trump had a commanding presence on social media during the 2024 campaign.
A new Pew-Knight survey of 500 of the top "news influencers" (people with at least 100,000 followers on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, X, or YouTube who "regularly post about current events") are "more likely to identify with the political right than the left."
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On social media, conservatives have stopped whining and have started winning.
Now the priority for conservative leaders must be to protect against the most dangerous threat to freedom of speech - big government regulators.
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4) Heading Out the Door, Biden Seeks to Ban 40% of Water Heaters
Joe Biden's Energy Department spent the holidays in a mad rush to restrict yet another common household appliance. This time it's natural gas-powered water heaters, popular in Northern states. If unchallenged, the final rule would likely ban 40% of the new models and force consumers to pay an additional $450 for alternatives.
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The White House claims consumers will ultimately save on heating bills while reducing emissions of carbon dioxide. But those savings may not materialize - while the upfront costs are all too real.
During Biden's four-year "reign of error," his Energy Department's regulations to make appliances more green are estimated to have added $9,000 in costs for an average family. And they wonder where the inflation came from.
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The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled last year that Congress never granted the Energy Department the power "to regulate water use for energy-using appliances" such as dishwashers or heaters.
The Trump administration should roll back all of these regulations on day one and let Americans buy the appliances they want.
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5) CNN: Blue State Governance Results "Bad and Getting Worse"
Fareed Zakaria of CNN recently excoriated the Democratic Party for losing touch with middle-class voters. His critique of Blue States could be borrowed straight from the HOTLINE!
The crisis of democratic government then, is actually a crisis of progressive government. People seem to feel that they have been taxed, regulated, bossed around and intimidated by left-of-center politicians for decades -- but the results are bad and have been getting worse.
New York, where I live, and Florida, where I often visit, provide an interesting contrast.
They have comparable populations -- New York with about 20 million people, Florida with 23 million. But New York state's budget is more than double that of Florida ($239 billion vs. roughly $116 billion). New York City, which is a little more than three times the size of Miami-Dade County, has a budget of more than $100 billion, which is nearly 10 times that of Miami-Dade. New York City's spending grew from 2012 to 2019 by 40 percent, four times the rate of inflation. Does any New Yorker feel that they got 40 percent better services during that time? ...
It's easy to comfort oneself by thinking that these sky-high tax rates and growing government revenues are providing some crucial ingredients of progressive government. But they are often simply the toll of waste and mismanagement. The first phase of the Second Avenue subway line construction, at $2.5 billion per mile, was eight to 12 times more expensive than a sampling of similar projects in places such as Italy, Sweden, Paris and Berlin.
All true. Will leftist leaders listen? Probably not.
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6) Severe Weather Alert!
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