“Israel accused Hezbollah on Sunday of failing to meet the terms of their
fragile 60-day ceasefire agreement, due to expire on Jan. 26, threatening that
it would be “forced to act” if the militant group’s violations continue. The
warning comes days after Lebanon reported to the U.N. Security Council that
Israel had launched more than 800 “ground and air attacks” after the ceasefire
came into effect. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said during a visit to
troops Sunday that Hezbollah militants and weaponry had not yet moved north of
the Litani River in southern Lebanon, as stipulated in the deal.”











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Eye on Extremism



January 6, 2025



The Washington Post: Israel And Hezbollah Trade Threats Over Future Of
Ceasefire As Deadline Looms
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“Israel accused Hezbollah on Sunday of failing to meet the terms of their
fragile 60-day ceasefire agreement, due to expire on Jan. 26, threatening that
it would be “forced to act” if the militant group’s violations continue. The
warning comes days after Lebanon reported to the U.N. Security Council that
Israel had launched more than 800 “ground and air attacks” after the ceasefire
came into effect. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said during a visit to
troops Sunday that Hezbollah militants and weaponry had not yet moved north of
the Litani River in southern Lebanon, as stipulated in the deal.”



Reuters: US To Ease Syria Aid Restrictions While Keeping Sanctions In Place,
Sources Say
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“The U.S. is set to announce an easing of restrictions on providing
humanitarian aid and other basic services such as electricity to Syria while
maintaining its strict sanctions regime, people briefed on the matter told
Reuters. The decision by the outgoing Biden administration will send a signal
of goodwill to Syria's new Islamist rulers. It aims to pave the way for
improving living conditions in the war-ravaged country while keeping U.S.
leverage in place. A spokesperson for the U.S. Treasury did not immediately
respond to a request for comment. U.S. officials have met several times with
members of the ruling administration, led by former Al Qaeda affiliate Hayat
Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), since a lightning rebel offensive brought a sudden end to
decades of Assad family rule on Dec. 8.”




CEP Expert Analysis

*
ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency In October 2024
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ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency In September 2024
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CEP Report: Civilian Counterterrorism Militias Take Action, Introduce New
Challenges to Combatting Violent Extremism in Africa
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CEP Policy Brief: Identifying and Disrupting Key Antisemitic Actors
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Extremist Content Online: Extreme Right Celebrates Anti-Muslim Immigration
Riots on Telegram and X
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CEP Mentions



CNN: Why Has ISIS Not Yet Claimed The New Orleans Vehicle Attack?
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“It is the deadliest attack by an ISIS supporter on the West in several years.
But still, almost a week later, the group also known as Islamic State has yet
to issue its trademark claim of responsibility for the horrific New Year’s
violence in New Orleans. There may be a mundane, technical reason for a delay.
Or there could be another explanation: that the group genuinely had no
foreknowledge of the attack, and is reluctant to make a false claim… “There’s
no question it was IS inspired,” said Edmund Fitton-Brown, senior adviser to
the Counter Extremism Project. “So why would they not grab it gratefully? It
seems an unmissable opportunity to claim a direct hit on the ‘biggest Satan.’”



Firstpost: New Orleans Attack: Beaten And Bruised In West Asia, Islamic State
Continues To Radicalise Globally
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“... The group has been notorious for circulating online videos on different
social media platforms, to influence people around the world and recruit the
vulnerable. “Terrorism is essentially communications,” said Hans-Jakob
Schindler, a former United Nations diplomat who is the senior director of the
Counter Extremism Project, a think tank with offices in New York and Berlin.
“It is not warfare, because obviously, ISIS cannot militarily defeat the West,
right? They tried and it didn’t exactly end well," he added during his
conversation with The New York Times.”



The New York Times: How The Islamic State Radicalizes People Today
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“... “Terrorism is essentially communications,” said Hans-Jakob Schindler, a
former United Nations diplomat who is the senior director of the Counter
Extremism Project, a think tank with offices in New York and Berlin. “It is not
warfare, because obviously, ISIS cannot militarily defeat the West, right? They
tried and it didn’t exactly end well.” How did the Islamic State keep its
influence alive? In part, by transforming its movement into a global franchise
beyond the Middle East, with active chapters in Afghanistan, Somalia, Mali, the
Democratic Republic of Congo, the Caucuses and Turkey, among other places.”



Sri Lanka Guardian: ISIS Exploits Social Media To Inspire And Radicalize People

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“The Islamic State (ISIS), once considered defeated after the collapse of its
caliphate in Iraq and Syria, demonstrated its enduring influence on New Year’s
Day when Shamsud-Din Bahar Jabbar carried out a deadly attack in New Orleans.
Jabbar, driving a truck adorned with an ISIS flag, plowed into a crowd, killing
14 people and injuring many more. While authorities found no direct ties
between Jabbar and the terrorist group, the FBI confirmed he was “100 percent
inspired by ISIS.”… “Terror groups don’t have to make a ton of effort to
radicalize people anymore; the algorithm does it for them,” said Hans-Jakob
Schindler, senior director of the Counter Extremism Project. ISIS has adapted
to crackdowns on mainstream social media by moving its propaganda to
decentralized platforms and the dark web. However, it continues to exploit
popular platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and Telegram, often creating new
accounts as older ones are shut down.”



CyprusMail: Investigators Seek Clues To New Orleans Attacker’s Path To
Radicalisation
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“As investigators learn more about the man who pledged allegiance to Islamic
State and killed 14 people with a truck on New Year’s Day in New Orleans, a key
question remains: How did a veteran and one-time employee of a major
corporation become radicalised? […] Individuals susceptible to recruitment
“might have lost their jobs, might have had a mental health crisis, might have
just concluded that however hard they’ve tried, they never belong,” said Edmund
Fitton-Brown, a former British diplomat who led a UN team that monitors Islamic
State and al Qaeda… “People that are carrying out those attacks may never in
their lives have actually met somebody who is a member of Isis,” said
Fitton-Brown, a senior adviser to the Counter-Extremism Project, a policy and
research organisation. “But that doesn’t mean they can’t carry out an
Isis-inspired attack.”



Inquierer.Net: The Quiet Financier: Islamic State’s Elusive Strongman
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“His orange henna-dyed beard and striking eyewear would make him easy to pick
out in a crowd, but Abdul Qadir Mumin has remained elusive. The Somalian leader
of the Islamic State (IS) group has in all likelihood risen to the status of
strongman of the entire organisation, even if he lacks the official title,
analysts say… “That would create some kind of uproar within the community of
supporters and sympathisers of IS,” said Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the
Counter-Extremism Project (CEP) think tank. In theory, the caliph has to be an
Arab from a tribe linked to the prophet. The supreme leader of a group so
concerned with its ideological foundations “cannot be just any Somali with an
orange beard,” Schindler told AFP.”



WTOP News: Global Terrorism Concerns Grow
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“Dr. Hans Jacob Schindler, Sr. Director at the Counter Extremism Project,
says 2024 signaled a very concerning terrorism trend for 2025.”



United States



Fox News: Feds Reveal Chilling New Timeline Of How Maniac Terrorist Scoped Out
New Orleans Kill Zone
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“The FBI on Sunday released new details about 42-year-old Shamsud-Din Jabbar,
the man authorities say carried out the deadly New Years Day terrorist attack
in New Orleans, including his movements in and out of the country and the
preparations he took immediately prior to the attack. Jabbar, who authorities
said acted alone in the attack on Bourbon Street that killed 14 people, had
traveled to Cairo, Egypt, from June 22 to July 3, 2023, then returned to the
U.S. In a separate trip on July 10, 2023, he traveled to Ontario, Canada, and
returned to the U.S. a few days later, the FBI said during a press conference.
The FBI also said Jabbar visited Tampa, Florida recently.”



Associated Press: New Orleans Attack Came As Officials Warned Of An Escalating
Threat Of International Terrorism
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“After Hamas launched the deadly assault on Israel that triggered retaliatory
airstrikes on Gaza, FBI Director Christopher Wray said he feared the Middle
East violence could embolden individuals or groups to carry out attacks inside
the United States. Months later, after extremists with the Islamic State
group’s Afghanistan affiliate killed more than 140 people at a Russian concert
hall, Wray sounded the alarm about the potential for a similar coordinated
attack closer to home. Following these months of warnings about a resurgent
terrorism threat, an Army veteran inspired by IS slammed a pickup truck into
crowds celebrating New Year’s in New Orleans.”



Syria



The New York Times: Saudi Arabia And U.A.E. Tread Cautiously With Syria’s New
Leaders
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“For decades, Syria was Iran’s closest Arab ally in the Middle East while the
wealthy Persian Gulf monarchies were locked in a competition with Tehran for
power and influence across the region. With the sudden overthrow of the Syrian
dictator Bashar al-Assad, his close ally Iran has been sidelined. That presents
an opportunity for Gulf states to fill the void and develop ties with the new
government in Damascus. The two leading Gulf powers, Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates, are taking a cautious approach, because Hayat Tahrir
al-Sham, the main rebel faction that has seized control of much of Syria, leans
toward Islamism and was once affiliated with the extremist group Al Qaeda.”



Afghanistan



The New York Times: Emeralds For Sale: The Taliban Look Below Ground To Revive
The Economy
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“In a chilly auditorium in Afghanistan, heaps of freshly mined green emeralds
glowed under bright table lamps as bearded gemstone dealers inspected them for
purity and quality. An auctioneer asked for bids on the first lot, which
weighed 256 carats. With that, the Taliban’s weekly gemstone auction was
underway. These sales, in the emerald-rich Panjshir Province of eastern
Afghanistan, are part of an effort by the Taliban government to cash in on the
country’s vast mineral and gemstone potential. Map locates Bazarak in the
Panjshir Province of Afghanistan, and Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital. Since
seizing power in August 2021, the Taliban say they have signed deals with
scores of investors to mine gemstones, gold, copper, iron and other valuable
minerals, like chromite.”



Middle East



Reuters: Hamas And Israel Wrangle Over Talks As Israeli Strikes In Gaza
Intensify
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“Israel and Hamas wrangled on Sunday over the details of a deal to halt
fighting in the Gaza Strip and return hostages home, as Palestinian officials
said intensified Israeli bombardments had killed more than 100 people over the
weekend. A Hamas official said the group had approved a list of 34 Israeli
hostages to be returned as part of a deal that could eventually lead to a
ceasefire. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office swiftly issued a
statement saying Hamas had not provided a hostage list. Later on Sunday, the
Hamas official provided Reuters a copy of the list showing the names of 34
hostages it agreed to set free in any possible ceasefire deal with Israel.”



Reuters: Hamas Says It Has Approved Israeli List Of 34 Hostages For Possible
Deal
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“Palestinian militant group Hamas has approved a list of 34 hostages presented
by Israel to be exchanged in a possible ceasefire deal, a group official told
Reuters on Sunday. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of
the sensitivity of the matter, also reiterated that any deal is contingent upon
reaching an agreement on an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a permanent
ceasefire.”



The New York Times: Israel Conducts Raids In Syria Amid Accusations Of
Cease-Fire Violations
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“The Israeli military said on Sunday that it has been conducting “operational
raids” in recent weeks on Mount Hermon in Syria, continuing a military campaign
on Syrian soil that is drawing increasing international condemnation. The
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based Syrian war monitor, on
Sunday also reported airstrikes around the Syrian capital, Damascus,
attributing them to the Israeli military. The strikes targeted an ammunitions
warehouse used by the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, who was ousted in a
rebel offensive last month, the observatory said. The Israeli military did not
immediately comment on the airstrikes.”



Mali



Reuters: Mali Rebels Say Army, Russian Fighters Killed Nine Civilians In Car
Attack
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“Nine civilians including women and children were killed in an attack on a
vehicle in Mali's Segou region last week, a civil society group and a rebel
coalition said late on Saturday, accusing the army and Russian mercenaries of
being responsible. The vehicle was travelling from the town of Niono to a
refugee camp in Mauritania on Thursday when it came under fire, said Mohamed
Elmaouloud Ramadane, spokesperson for the coalition of Tuareg groups that are
fighting for an independent homeland in northern Mali. He and local civil
society association Kal Akal said Malian armed forces and allied fighters from
Russia's Wagner private military contractor group had carried out the attack.”



Africa



Associated Press: They Fled From Extremists. Now The Government In Burkina
Faso Tries To Hide Their Existence
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“Their loved ones were slaughtered by Islamist extremists or
government-affiliated fighters. Their villages were attacked, their homes
destroyed. Exhausted and traumatized, they fled in search of safety, food and
shelter. This is the reality for over 2.5 million displaced people across the
West African nation of Burkina Faso, torn apart by years of extreme violence.
But unlike others displaced in the region, they are seen as a challenge to
Burkina Faso’s military junta that took power two years ago on the pledge of
bringing stability. Their existence contradicts its official narrative: that
security is improving and people are safely returning home. Those who fled to
Ouagadougou, the capital, which has been shielded from violence, find fear
instead of respite.”



Voice Of America: Cameroon Officials Say Country's Military Seized Weapons
From Terrorists Re-Arming Boko Haram
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“Cameroon’s military says it has seized several hundred weapons and combat
uniforms that were being smuggled to a hideout of the Nigeria-based terrorist
group Boko Haram. Officials say troops have been deployed in a bid to capture
more weapons and prevent Boko Haram from re-arming itself. Cameroon government
officials say long-barreled firearms, military uniforms, over 400 packets of
tear gas and more than 100 gallons of oxidizing agents were seized from
suspected Boko Haram members this week in Maroua, a northern town near the
central African country’s border with Nigeria and Chad. The military says the
oxidizing agents are used by Boko Haram terrorists to produce explosives.”



Technology



NBC News: ‘A Perfect Storm’: Extremism Online And Political Polarization Are
Increasing The Risk Of Attacks, Experts Say
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“The ISIS-inspired attack in New Orleans underscores how extremism online and
political divisions at home have created “a perfect storm” for radicalization
in America, experts say, with law enforcement struggling to track an
increasingly fractured threat. Finding and accessing extremist communities
online has never been easier, the threat has never been higher, and the
ideology of those carrying out attacks has never been more splintered,
according to the experts. “What the FBI and law enforcement in general are
dealing with right now is a threat landscape that is both diverse and
complicated,” said Seamus Hughes, a senior researcher and policy associate with
the National Counterterrorism Innovation, Technology, and Education Center at
the University of Nebraska Omaha.”



ABC News: New Orleans Terrorist Recorded French Quarter With Meta Glasses, FBI
Says
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“The man who drove a truck into crowds in New Orleans had previously visited
the city twice and recorded video of the French Quarter with hands-free
glasses, according to an FBI official. Shamsud-Din Jabbar killed 14 people and
injured at least 30 others when he rammed into crowds on New Year's Day. The
earlier reported death toll of 15 included Jabbar, who was fatally shot at the
scene on Bourbon Street. FBI deputy assistant director Christopher Raia said
Jabbar travelled to Egypt and Canada, but it was not yet clear whether those
trips were connected to the attack. FBI special agent in charge of the New
Orleans Field Office Lyonel Myrthil added that the suspect travelled to Cairo
in the summer of 2023 and then to Canada a few days later.”



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