Daily News Brief

January 6, 2025

Top of the Agenda

Ukrainian troops went on the offensive against Russian forces in Kursk, Ukrainian and Russian officials both said yesterday. Ukraine captured around 500 square miles of the Russian region last summer and Russian forces have since driven Ukraine out of some, but not all of the territory. Kyiv’s new push there comes as Moscow claims to have captured the Ukrainian town of Kurakhove; Ukraine’s Khortytsia military unit said that it was working to repel Russian fighters there.

More broadly, both Russia and Ukraine’s battlefield revivals come as the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump approaches on January 20. Trump has pledged to quickly end the war, without specifying how. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that holding Kursk—where the United States and Ukraine say North Korean soldiers are fighting—is an important bargaining chip in any negotiations. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is due to participate in a meeting of Ukraine’s backers on Thursday at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. (NYT, Reuters, AP)

Analysis

“Trump is right to seek an end to the war,” CFR President Michael Froman and CFR Senior Fellow Charles A. Kupchan write for Project Syndicate. “Still, as Trump tries to push Ukraine and Russia toward a cease-fire, he should recognize that it is in his own political interest (as well as U.S. national interest) to continue providing significant support to the Ukrainians and only to accept a deal that produces a sovereign, secure Ukraine.”

“[North Atlantic Treaty Organization] Secretary-General Mark Rutte recently stressed that China, Iran, and North Korea will be studying the way the Trump administration deals with Ukraine in order to craft their own foreign policies. But the United States’ increasingly ambivalent commitments to its allies also creates an opportunity for Europe to show that it is ready to fill gaps in the security order,” Arancha González Laya, Camille Grand, Katarzyna Pisarska, Nathalie Tocci, and Guntram Wolff write for Foreign Affairs.

“Whatever the price of supporting Ukraine today is, the price of support—of fixing the world—if Ukraine falls will be much higher,” Ukraine’s former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said at CFR last month.

United States

Congress is due today to certify the results of last November’s presidential election. Security has been increased because of the storming of the U.S. Capitol during the last election certification on January 6, 2021. Authorities said there are no known threats this year, as Vice President Kamala Harris is not disputing the election outcome and will preside over the certification of results. President Joe Biden pledged in a Washington Post op-ed today to do everything possible to “respect the peaceful transfer of power.” (ABC, WaPo)

Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni dined with Trump on Saturday. While no official readout was released, Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said they spoke about issues including the detention of Italian journalist Cecilia Sala in Iran. Italy’s government is in talks with SpaceX about providing telecommunications services, but Meloni’s office said she did not discuss the matter with Trump. She will host Biden in the coming days in Italy. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

Pacific Rim

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met separately with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul in Seoul and an opposition member, affirming the bilateral relationship is “bigger than any one leader.” Blinken said he raised “serious” concerns over President Yoon Suk Yeol’s December martial law declaration, but characterized the South Korean response as “peaceful” and in accordance with the rule of law. Yoon was impeached and authorities have begun a probe of his actions, issuing an arrest warrant when he refused to appear for questioning. As the visit was taking place, North Korea test-fired an apparent ballistic missile off its east coast, South Korea’s military said. (NYT, Reuters, AP, BBC)

U.S./Japan: Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru called on Washington to dispel concerns about the future of bilateral investment after Biden blocked a merger between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel last week. Washington needs “to be able to explain clearly why there is a national security concern,” Ishiba said. (AFP, CNA)

South and Central Asia

The government granted amnesty for 5,864 imprisoned Myanmar nationals and 180 foreigners facing deportation in honor of the country’s independence day, state television reported; mass prisoner releases often mark holidays in the country. Only a small portion of people detained for opposing military rule were released. (AP) 

CFR expert Joshua Kurlantzick questions whether Myanmar’s regime could be the next to collapse as Syria’s did. 

U.S./Afghanistan/Philippines: A group of up to 300 Afghan nationals who are eligible for resettlement in the United States arrived in the Philippines for temporary hosting while their U.S. visas are being processed. Many worked for the U.S. government in Afghanistan before the American withdrawal in 2021. Washington is funding their stay in Manila as part of a bilateral deal announced last August. (Bloomberg, AP)

Middle East and North Africa

The informal notification covers a package that includes air-to-air missiles, artillery shells, and 500-pound warheads, unnamed sources told multiple news outlets. It would mark the final sale of weapons to Israel approved by the Biden administration, and supplement at least $17.9 billion in military aid to Israel since Hamas’s 2023 attack. (Axios, AP)

CFR’s Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow visualize U.S. aid to Israel in graphics. 

Syria: The government plans to hike salaries for many public sector jobs next month by 400 percent as part of initial efforts to address the country’s economic crisis, the country’s caretaker finance minister said. The funding would come from a combination of state resources, regional aid, and the unfreezing of Syrian assets abroad. (Reuters)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Foreign Minister Wang Yi will also visit Chad, the Republic of Congo, and Nigeria as part of an annual start-of-year visit to the continent. It comes after a recent uptick in Chinese lending; research published last August showed that 2023 saw the first annual increase in Chinese loans to the continent since 2016. (Reuters)

CFR’s Nathan Schoonover rounds up more on China’s recent activity in Africa. 

Mozambique: Opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane, who has been directing protests over the country’s disputed October election from exile, said he plans to return to the country on Thursday ahead of the new president’s inauguration. Civil and criminal charges have been filed against him. (AFP)

Europe

Christian Stocker replaced Karl Nehammer, who resigned, as head of the center-right People’s Party. Stocker said he was willing to enter talks with the far-right Freedom Party, which Nehammer had tried to keep out of a coalition deal. (FT)

Americas

Over the weekend, some 150 Guatemalan and 8 Salvadoran security forces arrived in Haiti to reinforce a multinational security mission there that is mostly staffed by Kenyans. (Reuters)

Robert I. Rotberg and CFR expert Ebenezer Obadare argue that U.S. intervention is what’s needed for stability in Haiti.

Antarctica/Chile: Chilean President Gabriel Boric became the first sitting Latin American president to visit the South Pole, his office said. Chile is one of the seven countries that claim territory in Antarctica, while the United States and most other countries do not recognize those claims. Chile hopes to extend the scientific activity it conducts in northern Antarctica to the continent’s west, the government said. (CNN)

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