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A note from the editor, Ryan Costello. Thank you, Iran Unfiltered readers, for your generous support of our work during our end-of-year fundraising campaign [[link removed]] . We greatly appreciate your contributions and look forward to continuing to produce an informative Iran Unfiltered on a weekly basis.

Week of December 30, 2024 [[link removed]] | Iran Unfiltered is a digest tracking Iranian politics & society by the National Iranian American Council

* Growing Discontent in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar as Dollar Surges [[link removed]]
* Expediency Council to Revisit FATF-Related Bills; President Pezeshkian: “No Choice but to Resolve the FATF Issue” [[link removed]]
* Iran Prepares for New Round of Talks with Europe Amid Stalled Nuclear Negotiations [[link removed]]
* Iranian Energy Official Cites Illegal Crypto Mining as One Cause of Electricity Shortages [[link removed]]
* Tehran’s Detention of Italian Journalist Cecilia Sala Triggers Diplomatic Row [[link removed]]
* Growing Tensions Over Afghanistan’s New Dams Threaten Iranian Water Security [[link removed]]
* Jimmy Carter Dies at 100: A Presidency Shaped by Iran’s Revolutionary Upheaval [[link removed]]

Growing Discontent in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar as Dollar Surges [[link removed]]
Protests broke out in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar on Sunday, December 29 (9 Dey 1403), when shopkeepers and merchants staged strikes in response to the sharp rise in the dollar’s value and soaring prices . Footage circulating on social media shows bazaaris in Abbasabad, Chaharsu-ye Kuchak, Kafashan, the textiles market, and Bagh-e Sepahsalar closing their shops and voicing anger over the ongoing surge in Iran’s currency exchange rate. These demonstrations mark the first large-scale, unified protest in recent months explicitly targeting inflation and the steep climb of the dollar, which has reportedly increased by about 35 percent under President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration, now hovering around 80,000 tomans.

In Bagh-e Sepahsalar — Tehran’s traditional hub for bag and shoe retailers — merchants read out a resolution-like statement in the presence of police, citing grievances such as high costs of raw materials (driven by expensive foreign currency), severe market stagnation tied to costly parts, shortages in the supply chain, and a lack of liquidity that has eroded manufacturers’ capital. Tehran’s Grand Bazaar has long been considered the heartbeat of the Iranian economy; its roots stretch back centuries, and it has historically pressured authorities for reforms in times of crisis. This influence was notably visible ahead of the 1979 Revolution, when widespread protests in the Bazaar signaled deep social and political shifts.

Over the past decade, Iran has experienced recurring economic stresses, partly due to international sanctions limiting oil exports and restricting access to global financial systems. While successive governments have tried diverse strategies—introducing multiple exchange rates, offering subsidies, or imposing import restrictions—currency volatility has persisted. Under former President Hassan Rouhani (2013–2021), the country witnessed several waves of protest triggered by economic hardships, most prominently in 2017–2018 and November 2019, when a sudden hike in fuel prices sparked widespread unrest. In each instance, inflation, unemployment, and a devalued currency were core grievances, and security forces often reacted with brutal force.

The recent surge in the dollar’s value has made many imports and raw materials prohibitively expensive, threatening the survival of smaller enterprises already operating on tight margins. This can lead to temporary closures or scaled-back production, further reducing consumer spending power and deterring foreign investment. Though the immediate outrage focuses on currency woes and rising prices, the protests also reveal deeper concerns about the government’s ability—or willingness—to address structural economic problems.

Officials now face renewed pressure to stabilize the exchange rate and curb inflation. Potential measures could include injecting foreign reserves into the market, seeking partial sanction relief, or introducing new financial instruments to support struggling industries. Yet some segments of the Iranian leadership may choose a security-driven response or attempt to downplay additional strikes to maintain political calm. If living costs continue to climb without meaningful intervention, these latest Bazaar protests could foreshadow further unrest. Iranians grappling with steep inflation, high unemployment, and ongoing currency devaluation may see these strikes as a catalyst for larger demonstrations. At the same time, a heavy-handed crackdown risks drawing further domestic and international criticism, undermining the government’s standing and possibly inflaming tensions.

By closing their shops and calling for immediate economic relief, bazaaris are signaling that they expect decisive and effective solutions to Iran’s persistent economic challenges. Whether the Pezeshkian administration responds with reforms, targeted financial aid, or stricter enforcement will significantly influence both the country’s economic trajectory and its political stability in the coming months.

Expediency Council to Revisit FATF-Related Bills; President Pezeshkian: “No Choice but to Resolve the FATF Issue” [[link removed]]
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has announced that the Expediency Council will once again review the Palermo and CFT bills—both tied to efforts to comply with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a global body that sets standards on banking transparency to counter money laundering and the financing of terrorism . The announcement follows a statement by Economy Minister Abdolnaser Hemmati, who wrote on social media that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had authorized their reintroduction. According to Pezeshkian, the move aims to ease the obstacles faced by Iranian businesses and improve the country’s economic activity.

In recent weeks, various economic stakeholders and members of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce have urged the government to address ongoing hurdles in international financial transactions . Pezeshkian expressed hope that cooperation among all branches of government will lead to smoother trade operations. Meanwhile, Sadeq Larijani, Chairman of the Expediency Council, has described FATF as a “technical issue” and indicated that the council will reassess it if formally presented, though he questioned whether compliance would truly alleviate U.S. sanctions.

Talks surrounding Iran’s potential FATF membership have remained in limbo for years . Government officials maintain that even if joining FATF does not immediately remove Iran from the FATF blacklist, it would reduce what they refer to as “the enemy’s excuses” for maintaining sanctions. In a recent Student Day address, Pezeshkian stressed there is “no choice but to resolve the FATF issue” in order to help lift sanctions. He also called on critics to articulate their objections clearly so that dialogue could lead to a consensus.

Complete adherence to FATF regulations was a key talking point in the 1403 presidential debates and continues to spark debate among various political factions . Iran’s economy faces significant pressure due to sanctions and restricted access to global financial systems; moving closer to FATF compliance could potentially mitigate some of these limitations, particularly if sanctions are ultimately lifted. With Ayatollah Khamenei allowing the bills to be revisited, there is renewed hope for progress, although U.S. sanctions and domestic opposition may still pose major roadblocks.

Should the Palermo and CFT bills return to the Expediency Council’s agenda, official statements from both supporters and opponents will be critical in determining their future. Whether or not Iran ultimately adopts these measures, the decision will carry short- and long-term consequences for the country’s international trade, currency stability, and overall financial relations. The Judiciary and Parliament are also expected to offer their perspectives in the coming weeks, which could prove decisive in shaping Iran’s path forward on FATF.

Iran Prepares for New Round of Talks with Europe Amid Stalled Nuclear Negotiations [[link removed]]
Iran is preparing for a fresh round of discussions with three European countries on January 13 (24 Dey) in Geneva . Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs, announced these upcoming talks but emphasized that they are not formal negotiations. Instead, he noted, they will focus on clarifying issues and determining the framework, context, and method for any future agreements.

Despite this planned dialogue, the broader nuclear discussions remain at an impasse. Previous efforts with European powers yielded limited results, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has taken positions critical of Tehran. In the United States, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan recently warned that Iran may move closer to obtaining nuclear weapons, calling this a “real risk.” He added that regional partners, including Israel, have also been consulted. Israel, for its part, has regularly hinted it may feel compelled to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.

Meanwhile, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivered a speech commemorating the fifth anniversary of Qassem Soleimani’s death, hailing Lebanon and Yemen as “symbols of resistance .” He underscored the role of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen—groups closely aligned with Iran. His remarks came amid rising tensions, particularly in Yemen, where Israel has reportedly conducted several airstrikes against Houthi forces in response to missile and drone attacks. In addition, the United States and Britain have carried out aerial operations targeting Houthi positions, citing threats to commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Khamenei also accused the United States, Israel, and other foreign powers of trespassing in Syria, warning that they would be forced to withdraw under local resistance . He framed “faithful youth” as the backbone of any nation’s security, comparing the stability of Iran to the chaos he claims would ensue in the absence of such defenders—pointing to Syria as an example. Referencing the “defenders of the shrines,” Khamenei argued that their presence in regional conflicts prevents those threats from reaching Iranian soil.

In a separate development, Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport went on high alert after receiving information about a potential transfer of funds to Hezbollah via an Iranian Mahan Air flight . According to Lebanese media, tensions rose when the Iranian diplomatic delegation attempted to prevent the plane from being inspected, prompting airport authorities to call in additional security personnel.

Ultimately, both the aircraft and the Iranian delegation were inspected . Officials discovered two small bags containing cash and documents, but found nothing else of concern. Around the same time, Lebanon’s Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi told the MTV network that the Mahan Air plane was undergoing a thorough “bag-by-bag” inspection at Beirut Airport.

The Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants, after receiving a written note from the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, granted permission for entry of the two bags . In a statement, the Iranian Embassy in Lebanon explained that these bags belonged to an Iranian diplomat on the Mahan Air flight and contained documents, records, and banknotes intended for “specific operational costs” of the embassy.

Lebanon allowed the bags to enter in accordance with the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations . Iranian news agencies, quoting an informed source, reported that Lebanese authorities insisted on inspecting even the small bag normally exempt from searches, until the Lebanese Foreign Ministry intervened to resolve the matter, allowing the bag in without inspection.

During the airport inspection, a group of Hezbollah supporters reportedly gathered in front of the Iranian Embassy near the airport to protest the security forces’ actions . Since the war between Israel and Hezbollah, and given the tenuous ceasefire still in place, Lebanon has been under pressure from its Western allies to prevent Iran from using Beirut Airport to funnel financial or logistical support to Hezbollah.

Despite this rhetoric of resistance, Iranian officials maintain that diplomatic engagement remains possible . Gharibabadi’s announcement of the Geneva discussions signals a continued, if cautious, willingness to pursue dialogue. The crucial question is whether this process can break the current stalemate, ease Western concerns about Iran’s regional activities, and avert a potential military escalation, particularly as Israel monitors any progress—or lack thereof—on the nuclear front.

Iranian Energy Official Cites Illegal Crypto Mining as One Cause of Electricity Shortages [[link removed]]
Mohammad Alhaddad, Deputy for Transmission and Foreign Trade at Tavanir—the national power company—has identified unauthorized cryptocurrency mining as one factor exacerbating Iran’s electricity “imbalance” and shortages. According to Alhaddad, illegal mining machines “consume between 1,000 to 2,000 megawatts of electricity per day.”

Pledging a tougher crackdown on illegal mining operations and the confiscation of unregistered cryptocurrency rigs, Alhaddad encouraged citizens to report any unlicensed crypto-mining activity . Informants can reportedly expect rewards ranging from one million to 50 million tomans. He added, however, that wintertime fuel limitations at power plants and various illegal power usages are also contributing to the problem, so “we can’t say that illegal miners alone are the sole reason for electricity shortfalls.”

Alhaddad noted that unlicensed mining equipment is being used in public, rural, agricultural, urban residential, small workshop, and retail settings. He attributed the spread of the practice partly to “the global rise in crypto asset and dollar prices,” explaining that an appliance used at home “might be turned on five times a day for around 10 minutes each, using at most one or two kilowatts, whereas a single miner running around the clock can draw 3.5 kilowatts.”

According to Alhaddad, “95 percent of the discovered mining farms tap directly into the grid after the meter, effectively stealing electricity,” making them difficult to locate. He estimates that more than 800 megawatts’ worth of illegal miners—equivalent to the capacity of a large power plant—have been identified so far. He also believes there may be between 1,000 to 2,000 megawatts of active unauthorized miners nationwide, with notable growth in southern regions.

Power outages have become a chronic issue in Iran in recent months, and the use of pollutant-heavy mazut at power plants poses yet another challenge. Authorities blame Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as part of the problem, and offering bounties for tips on illegal mining is their latest effort to curb crypto extraction.

Last week, several cryptocurrency exchanges protested that the Central Bank of Iran had shut down their payment gateways without prior notice. With Iran’s financial system heavily sanctioned and largely isolated from global banking, cryptocurrencies have become a popular means of conducting transactions.

Tehran’s Detention of Italian Journalist Cecilia Sala Triggers Diplomatic Row [[link removed]]
Two weeks after the arrest of Italian journalist Cecilia Sala in Tehran, Italy’s Foreign Minister summoned the Iranian ambassador in Rome and demanded her immediate release. In a statement, the Italian Foreign Ministry said it had conveyed its “deep concern” about Sala’s condition to Mohammad Reza Sabouri, Iran’s ambassador, and emphasized the need for humane treatment and respect for human rights.

Sala was arrested on December 20 in Tehran (29 Azar in the Iranian calendar), just three days after Mohammad Abedini Najafabadi, an Iranian citizen, was detained at Milan Airport at the request of U.S. prosecutors for allegedly “trafficking drone parts and equipment.” Because her arrest happened so soon after Abedini’s, some observers have speculated that Sala’s detention was a retaliatory move by Iranian authorities.

Iran’s official news agency quoted the Iranian Embassy in Rome as describing the meeting with Italian officials as “cordial,” adding that Ambassador Sabouri, in turn, called for the swift release of Abedini, who he claimed is being held on “baseless charges.” Despite these mutual demands, Sala has reportedly remained in solitary confinement in Evin Prison since her arrest. According to Iran’s Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance, she was detained on suspicion of “violating the laws of the Islamic Republic.”

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, announcing the ambassador’s summons on social media, stated that the Italian government has “worked tirelessly from the very first day” of Sala’s arrest to ensure her return. “We expect her rights to be respected,” he wrote, adding that “until she is released, Cecilia and her parents will never be left alone.”

Meanwhile, Iranian state media reported that Ambassador Sabouri told the Secretary General of Italy’s Foreign Ministry that Sala has been treated “based on Islamic compassion and humanitarian considerations” and, in light of Christmas and the New Year, has been allowed multiple phone calls. The ambassador again pressed for the “expedited release” of Abedini, who is being held in Milan awaiting possible extradition to the United States.

According to Italian newspaper La Repubblica, a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department suggested that Iran aims to use Sala as a “political bargaining chip,” as Washington seeks Abedini’s extradition. Italian media outlets report that Sala spoke by phone to her family on Wednesday, describing difficult conditions in prison, including constant lights in her cell and sleeping on the floor.

A colleague of Sala’s at the Cora Media organization said that a package of essential items—such as slippers, chocolate, cigarettes, and a sleeping mask—delivered to Evin Prison via the Italian Embassy never reached her. Sala, 29, has previously reported on Iranian affairs and traveled to Iran multiple times. She writes for the Italian newspaper Il Foglio and hosts a popular podcast produced by Cora Media.

Cora Media stated that Sala arrived in Tehran on December 12 with a valid journalist visa, conducted several interviews, and recorded three episodes of her podcast “Stories.” She was due to fly back to Rome on December 20. Each episode of her podcast covers a different contemporary issue; the last episode before her arrest focused on Iranian satirist Zeynab Mousavi, who has been detained in Iran before.

This is not the first time a foreign or dual-national journalist with a valid work visa has been arrested or sentenced to prison in Iran on vague or unfounded charges. The International Federation of Journalists has called for Sala’s immediate release, stating it regrets Iran’s apparent practice of imprisoning foreign journalists to gain political leverage. “Our colleague, Cecilia Sala, must be set free,” the organization said in a social media post.

Growing Tensions Over Afghanistan’s New Dams Threaten Iranian Water Security [[link removed]]
In recent weeks, the Taliban’s accelerated efforts to construct and fill multiple dams on shared rivers have sparked renewed concern across eastern Iran. These projects—especially on the Harirud and Helmand (Hirmand) rivers—risk disrupting critical water supplies to several Iranian provinces, including Khorasan, Sistan, and Baluchestan, and have raised alarms about long-term environmental and humanitarian impacts.

Afghanistan’s Pashdan Dam, built on the Harirud River, has now begun storing water, effectively reducing the flow downstream into Iran’s Khorasan Province . More than two million people in Khorasan depend on the Harirud for drinking water. Iranian authorities note that this is the second major obstruction on the Harirud in the last decade, following the construction of the Salma Dam, one of Afghanistan’s largest infrastructure projects. The Taliban aims to use Pashdan Dam to irrigate 13,000 hectares of farmland. According to reports, a construction firm from Azerbaijan worked 18-hour days to expedite completion, allowing water storage to begin in recent weeks.

Since taking power, the Taliban has adopted a broader policy in managing its water resources, focusing on harnessing Afghanistan’s rivers for domestic use . Alongside the Pashdan Dam, Afghan officials have announced plans to build at least two more dams—Tirpol and Gofgan—which could further reduce water flows to neighboring countries. Iran, already contending with a diminished water supply from the Helmand River in Sistan and Baluchestan, now faces a widening crisis on multiple fronts. Another worrying project is the Bakhshabad Dam in Farah Province, which can store 1.3 billion cubic meters of water. Standing 81 meters tall, it could potentially capture up to 75 percent of the Farah Rud’s annual flow, leaving little or no water to reach Iran, even during relatively wet years.

Observers note that this strategy not only impacts Iran but also raises tensions with other regional states . Despite repeated negotiations, Tehran’s water diplomacy has so far been unable to secure reliable guarantees for Iran’s historical water access.

Meanwhile, Sistan and Baluchestan continue to struggle with chronic water shortages, worsened by drought and Afghanistan’s widespread dam-building . The once-thriving Hamoun wetlands have turned into dust bowls, fueling sandstorms and displacement. Critics argue that Afghanistan’s aggressive approach, combined with Iran’s limited success in finalizing water-sharing agreements, has brought the region to the brink of a humanitarian and environmental crisis.

Iranian officials have publicly decried the Taliban’s unilateral moves on shared rivers. Eisa Bozorgzadeh, spokesperson for Iran’s water industry, warned that Pashdan Dam’s filling has already caused a “serious challenge” for the drinking water supply in Mashhad, Iran’s second-largest city. He stressed that the people on both sides of the border have historically benefited from the Harirud’s natural flow, and any unilateral damming could threaten millions of lives while harming the downstream environment.

Despite ongoing talks, the Taliban appears resolute in pursuing additional dam projects . Some neighboring states, such as Pakistan and Uzbekistan, are moving quickly to develop joint initiatives to stave off water shortages, yet Iran remains mired in stalled negotiations and lacks comprehensive agreements on multiple shared waterways. With each new Afghan dam, the strain on Iran’s eastern provinces intensifies, prompting questions about whether existing diplomatic channels can adequately address a crisis that grows more urgent by the day.

Jimmy Carter Dies at 100: A Presidency Shaped by Iran’s Revolutionary Upheaval [[link removed]]
Jimmy Carter, the former president of the United States, died on December 29, 2024, at the age of 100 . Leaders worldwide, including President Joe Biden, joined prominent figures in offering condolences and paying tribute to Carter. In a statement, Carter’s family said he died peacefully at home and was surrounded by loved ones.

A member of the Democratic Party, Carter entered the White House in 1977 and served only one term . His four years in office were marked by several major global crises, most notably the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Iran’s subsequent hostage-taking at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, and the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan. The inability to secure the prompt release of American hostages in Iran was a key factor contributing to his electoral defeat.

Carter assumed office amid national disillusionment following the Watergate scandal under President Richard Nixon and lingering public frustration over the Vietnam War . Campaigning on honesty, faith, and human values, he outmaneuvered his Democratic rivals through a grassroots, door-to-door strategy, convincing many Americans he could restore public trust. Once in office, he pardoned Vietnam War draft evaders and started a nationwide program to reduce America’s reliance on oil. Notably, he installed solar panels at the White House to champion renewable energy.

In foreign affairs, Carter orchestrated the Camp David talks between Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin, culminating in a landmark peace agreement . He also worked to elevate human rights to a central role in U.S. foreign policy, establishing the first human rights division within the State Department.

Yet unrest in Iran soon became a severe test of Carter’s foreign policy. Growing unrest against Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi – a key U.S. ally – went far beyond an oil workers’ strike, evolving into mass demonstrations, strikes across various industries, and an increasingly vocal opposition that brought the Shah’s rule to a tipping point. As oil exports from Iran ground to a halt, the United States faced gasoline shortages and rising inflation at home, amplifying the crisis. Carter attempted to engage diplomatically and monitor the fast-moving developments, yet the wave of protest—culminating in the Shah’s departure—proved unstoppable. Millions of Iranians welcomed Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini upon his return on February 1, 1979, and the monarchy collapsed just ten days later. The birth of the Islamic Republic that followed became a defining moment for both Iran and the Carter administration, re-shaping U.S.–Iran relations for decades to come.

Carter’s decision to admit the ailing Shah to the United States for treatment triggered an immediate backlash and a major political crisis. Revolutionary students seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, taking American personnel hostage, dashing Carter’s hopes for a manageable transition in Iran. The crisis was a seminal moment in the Carter administration and American politics of that era, fanning xenophobia against the Iranian-American community and Iranian students in the United States. Carter ordered Operation Eagle Claw to rescue the hostages, but helicopter malfunctions led to a disastrous failure in the Iranian desert, further tarnishing his presidency.

Carter responded by freezing Iranian assets in U.S. banks and imposing sanctions . Although some officials mulled broader military action, Carter opted to negotiate through intermediaries. Despite those efforts, the prolonged hostage crisis eroded public support and significantly damaged his 1980 re-election campaign.

In his final State of the Union address on January 23, 1980 —facing the hostage standoff, inflation, and an oil shortage – Carter announced the Carter Doctrine, declaring the Persian Gulf a “vital interest” of the United States. He warned that any foreign attempt to control the Gulf would be considered an attack on American interests and met with all necessary measures, including military force. This doctrine laid the groundwork for the expansion of the U.S. military presence in the region through basing agreements aimed at safeguarding energy resources and shipping lanes.

Carter continued seeking a diplomatic solution to the hostage crisis until his last day in office. On January 20, 1981—the day Ronald Reagan was inaugurated—Iran released the remaining American hostages. Rumors [[link removed]] , since confirmed [[link removed]] , indicated that interlocutors for the Reagan campaign secretly urged Iran not to conclude a hostage deal under Carter and instead delay it to the very moment when Carter was leaving office.

In his post-presidency years, Carter dedicated himself to promoting human rights, peace, and democracy , earning the Nobel Peace Prize and regaining much of the popularity he lost while in the White House.

Within Iran, opinions on Carter’s legacy are varied. Supporters of the Pahlavi monarchy and some critics of the Islamic Republic blame him for pressuring the Shah into limited reforms, arguing that this weakened the monarchy. Others credit Carter for emphasizing human rights at a time when the Shah’s security forces were widely condemned as repressive. Iranian journalist Ahmad Zeidabadi has noted that by criticizing Carter’s role in the Shah’s downfall, monarchists implicitly concede the Pahlavi system was so reliant on coercive methods that any political liberalization could have led to its collapse. Regardless, Carter’s policies toward Iran remain a subject of debate among those reflecting on the 1979 Revolution and its enduring impact on U.S.–Iran relations.
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