Daily News Brief

January 3, 2025

Top of the Agenda

Tensions around the fate of President Yoon Suk Yeol following his short-lived declaration of martial law last month escalated to a tense standoff at the presidential residence today. Investigators and police tried to carry out a warrant for Yoon’s detention as part of a government probe, but the presidential security detail blocked their entrance. Crowds of pro-Yoon protesters also gathered outside the residence. Investigators said today they were aborting arrest efforts for the time being over concerns of a potential confrontation.  

The standoff comes against a backdrop of broader uncertainty about South Korea’s political future: Yoon has already been impeached in the days following the incident and faces potential removal from office, contingent on the ruling of a court investigation that could last months. South Korea’s prime minister Han Duck-soo was elevated to the role of acting president but was impeached, too, on December 27 over a dispute regarding the appointment of judges to the country’s Constitutional Court—the same court that will rule on Yoon’s removal from his post. In a meeting with business leaders today, new acting President Choi Sang-mok acknowledged that the country’s economy was facing “uncertainty never seen before.” (Nikkei, Yonhap)

Analysis

“The turmoil has raised concerns over the possible impact on South Korea's economy as well as stability on the Korean Peninsula, where South Korean and U.S. troops are faced off against North Korea's military along what is often described as the world's most heavily armed border,” Nikkei’s Steven Borowiec and Kim Jaewon write.

“Seoul’s democratic friends overseas are already reluctant to engage South Korea at senior levels because they do not want to be perceived as providing any affirmation to Yoon personally, who is now seen as toxic. They are, however, comfortable engaging Seoul at the working level,” the Center for a New American Security’s Duyeon Kim tells CFR Senior Fellow Sheila Smith for Asia Unbound.

United States

U.S. President Joe Biden used executive authority to stymie the proposed $14 billion purchase on national security concerns, citing the goal of a strong domestic steel industry. The federal Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. reviewed the deal for months but ultimately made no recommendation on whether to block it. Biden and President-elect Donald Trump both spoke out during last year’s presidential campaign against the proposed takeover, which the United Steelworkers union has long opposed. (NYT)

CFR expert Matthew P. Goodman unpacks whether blocking the Nippon deal is a matter of policy or politics. 

The FBI assessed that Shamsud-Din Jabbar acted alone when he drove a truck into a New Year’s Eve crowd in New Orleans, and there is no other threat around the Bourbon Street area, a senior official said. He added there was “no definitive link” to the Las Vegas car explosion the same day. Nevada officials identified the driver of that vehicle, who died before the explosion, as Matthew Livelsberger, an army soldier from Colorado who was on leave. (NPR, ABC)

Pacific Rim

Though automaker BYD sold slightly fewer electric cars worldwide, those sales rose 12 percent year-on-year, while Tesla’s annual sales declined for the first time in over a decade. The trends reflect the stiff global competition in the electric car market; Tesla’s eventual strategy includes a shift toward robotics and artificial intelligence. (WSJ)

CFR Senior Fellow Brad W. Setser discusses China’s position in the global auto industry.

South and Central Asia

The countries are exploring the revival of bilateral oil trade, which halted in 2019 over Indian concerns about secondary sanctions during the first Trump administration, the Hindustan Times reported. Iran was one of India’s top three oil suppliers before then. (Hindustan Times) 

Bangladesh: A court for the second time rejected a bail request by a jailed Hindu leader who had led demonstrations calling for better security for minorities. Hindu groups in the country have said the August 2024 ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was followed by attacks on Hindus in the country. (AP)

Middle East and North Africa

For the first time, Iranian authorities publicly linked last month’s arrest of Italian reporter Cecilia Sala in Tehran to the days-earlier detention of Iranian businessman Mohammad Abedini in Milan on a U.S. arrest warrant. Italian authorities are seeking immediate release for Sala, who was on a journalist visa. The United States says Abedini supplied drone parts that were used in a 2023 attack on U.S. service members in Jordan. Iran denied a role in the attack. (Reuters)

Palestinian territories: An Israeli strike inside an Israeli-designated humanitarian zone in Gaza killed Hamas’s head of police, the group said. Medics reported that eleven people including women and children died in the strike. Earlier this week, Israel’s defense minister threatened stepped-up attacks against Hamas if it does not soon release Israeli hostages and keeps firing at Israeli communities; Hamas has increased rocket fire at Israel over the past week. (Times of Israel)

At this event, CFR experts assess the Israel-Hamas conflict after more than a year of war. 

Sub-Saharan Africa

The two countries had been at odds for the past year over Ethiopia’s early 2024 deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland. But following Turkey-brokered talks, Somalia is considering reallowing Ethiopia to join a multinational security force that Addis Ababa had been a main contributor to for two decades, a senior Somali official said. (Bloomberg)

Ghana: The turn of the year marks the end of visa requirements in Ghana for travel by all African passport holders. It is the fifth African country to take such a step. (RFI)

Europe

Múte Egede did not mention U.S. President-elect Trump’s recent statements on controlling the territory in his speech but said Greenland should decide who its international partners are. The territory achieved the right to claim independence through a vote in 2009; it will hold parliamentary elections this spring. (Reuters)

This In Brief by Joseph Wehmeyer explains what independence would mean for Greenland. 

Austria: Talks on forming a new government collapsed after one of its three prospective parties, the liberal NEOS party, pulled out, saying talks were taking the country backward. Austria’s president in October directed conservative Chancellor Karl Nehammer to form a government after an impasse in which parties refused to work with a far-right party victorious in the country’s national election. (AP)

Americas

Over three hundred thousand people made the journey across the jungle border known as the Darién Gap. Since July, Panama has cracked down by fencing off part of the area and stepping up migrant deportations via U.S.-funded flights. (Reuters)

CFR’s Sabine Baumgartner and Diana Roy lay out the dangerous path through the Darién Gap.

Argentina/Venezuela: Venezuelan opposition figure Edmundo González is beginning a tour of Latin America in Argentina, he posted on X. The opposition and some countries including the United States say González won Venezuela’s July 2024 presidential election, while President Nicolás Maduro is preparing to be sworn in for a third term on January 10. (AFP)

Friday Editor’s Pick

New Lines Magazine peels back the exploitation under the wrapping of one of the world’s favorite treats—chocolate—and how cocoa-growing communities are fighting back.

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