Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** Jan. 2, 2025
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How to Get Ahead of H5N1
After the first severe case of H5N1 required a patient to be hospitalized last month, concerns are rising about the U.S. response to the virus (also known as bird flu). While the current strain is not considered to be contagious enough for sustained human-to-human transmission, questions persist about how H5N1 spreads, its potential to cause significant morbidity, and possible mutations.
Time may be running out before the H5N1 threat spirals out of control, say RAND experts: "Failing to act decisively risks repeating the missteps of early COVID-19 response efforts, where hesitation and underestimation allowed opportunities for containment to slip away."
Steps that could be taken now include
- declaring H5N1 a public health emergency and mandating ongoing testing of representative samples of dairy and beef cattle, free of charge to farmers
- expanding the National Wastewater Surveillance program to test for H5N1 and associated variants from different hosts
- making H5N1 vaccines available to anyone likely to have been exposed to infected animals and planning for possible nationwide vaccine distribution.
Our experts emphasize that the time to act is now--"when swift, coordinated efforts can make the greatest impact"--not when the threat becomes unmanageable.
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Low-Cost Ways to Deter an Invasion of Taiwan
The threat of China invading Taiwan is a significant challenge for the United States. A successful conquest of the island by Beijing would lead to ruthless repression of Taiwan's population, menace other East Asian nations, and amplify China's power projection. A new commentary by RAND's Scott Savitz discusses how Washington can further deter China by helping Taiwan enhance its porcupine defenses. For example, Taiwan could build artificial reefs and other obstacles, use naval mines, and prepare to tear up roads and runways. These efforts could help stymie China, preventing an outcome that would be "disastrous for the entire world."
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Russia's Illicit Gold Trade
Recent RAND research finds that gold has become a vital resource for Russia since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In fact, gold plays a key role in Russia's developing "shadow trade." For instance, Moscow has reportedly used gold to facilitate payments with partners in China and as payment for drones in Iran. With global demand for gold at an all-time high, Russia's reliance on gold is likely to continue. Thus, disrupting the Kremlin's international networks of middlemen and shell companies is vital to ensuring that Ukraine's supporters can maintain pressure on Moscow.
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** RAND Recommends
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- In case you missed it, our president and CEO Jason Matheny reflected on RAND's contributions in 2024, highlighting some of the many ways our research and analysis helped leaders better understand and address humanity's greatest challenges.
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- In the Wall Street Journal, RAND's Jonathan Welburn and Vegard Nygaard write about the importance of bringing more people who are currently "unbanked" into the traditional banking sector.
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- RAND's Wendy Troxel discusses seven ways to wake yourself up when you're tired. (None involve caffeine.)
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** Events
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Admissions Webinar: Pardee RAND Graduate School Master of National Security Policy
Thursday, January 23, 2025 (Online)
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Policy Lab: AI and Homeland Security
Thursday, January 30, 2025 (Online)
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