By Jon Coupal
California politicians have been blind to the fact that the state’s High Speed Rail project is an utter failure. However, the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) by the Trump administration might finally force HSR advocates to open their eyes to the reality that the project will never be completed as promised 26 years ago.
Throughout the early 2000’s a high-speed rail project from San Francisco to Los Angles was the dream of rail advocates and politicians who were too disengaged from reality to consider whether the project even made sense. Once the California Legislature approved placing a nearly $10 billion bond measure on the ballot, few in government were asking the most important question: Is this massive project even viable?
For that reason, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association took it upon itself to finance a study to determine just what the state would be getting into. In conjunction with transportation experts at the Reason Foundation, we released a High-Speed Rail Due Diligence Report prior to the November 2008 election when the bond would appear on the ballot.
The conclusion of the study confirmed our worst fears: “The CHSRA plans as currently proposed are likely to have very little relationship to what would eventually be built due to questionable ridership projections and cost assumptions, overly optimistic projections of ridership diversion from other modes of transport, insufficient attention to potential speed restrictions and safety issues and discounting of potential community or political opposition. Further, the system’s environmental benefits have been grossly exaggerated, especially with respect to reduction of greenhouse gas emissions that have been associated with climate change.”
Unfortunately, from the start, we had an uphill battle convincing voters how ill-conceived the project was. The California Legislature had already stacked the deck by providing such a biased title and summary that HJTA successfully initiated litigation. But the ruling in our favor was issued after the election when the damage was already done. This, in addition to the campaign contributions from those who would profit from the project, was enough to ensure victory at the polls – albeit by a very small margin.
By now, transportation experts and most in the media realize that all the predictions from the study came true. After voters approved the project, the cost estimate was revised upward to $95 billion. Voters were told that private investors would pick up a share of the cost, but there were no private investors interested in sinking their money into the bullet train.
Another promise made by backers of the project in 2008 was that, in addition to private investment, the federal government would provide up to a third of the needed revenue. And it is true that under both the bipartisan infrastructure bill, as well as Biden’s most absurdly named law in American history, the Inflation Reduction Act, the feds provided over $3 billion. But the Biden regime has been ousted, and the Trump administration has made clear its hostility to California’s legendary boondoggle.
While DOGE is not (yet) an official government agency, the two leaders of this advisory commission are businessmen Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy.
A posting on X from DOGE reviews the sad history of HSR:
“Originally projected (in 2008) to cost $33 billion; now projected to cost between $88.5 and $127.9 billion;
- Estimated completion date was 2020; as of 2024, zero passengers have been transported and the majority has not even been fully designed;
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Received $6.8 billion in federal funds;
- Requesting $8 billion in additional federal funds.”
In addition to the Executive Branch long knives out for the project, Congress is paying attention as well.
California’s own Congressman Kevin Kiley has announced his intentions to submit a bill that would limit all federal funding. The legislation and other federal intervention will have broad support in California notwithstanding the unpopularity of President Trump by the state’s political elites.
If the measure were on the ballot today, it would fail.
Now is the perfect time to finally pull the plug on California’s embarrassing boondoggle.
Jon Coupal is president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.
