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DAILY ENERGY NEWS  | 12/30/2024
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22 days until we put an end to this nonsense.


Washington Times (12/26/24) editorial: "Gavin Newsom will now decide what kind of car you’re allowed to drive. The Environmental Protection Agency last week granted California’s Democratic governor the power to forbid consumers from buying gasoline-powered vehicles across 18 states and territories — including Maryland, Virginia and the District. Beginning next year, 40% of new cars sold in the U.S. will fall under Soviet-style production quotas set by government bureaus in Sacramento. The Biden administration is letting California make it a crime to sell too many of the conventional automobiles that Americans prefer. For model year 2026, the quota is 35% of car sales in affected states must be electric. The target increases by roughly 8% each year until it reaches 100% in 2035."

"SB-1322 may have been designed to shine a light on oil refiners, but its findings reveal a fundamental truth: California itself profits more from gasoline sales than the refiners do. When operational costs are factored in, the profits earned by refiners are minimal. If policymakers and consumer groups are serious about tackling high gasoline prices in the state, they would be better served scrutinizing California’s tax and regulatory structure instead of targeting the refiners."

 

– Robert Rapier, Oil Price

Wrong again.


Oil Price (12/28/24) opinion: "About a month ago, the World Bank predicted in a blog post that crude oil demand would hit 103 million barrels daily in 2024. What the World Bank noted was that this number represented slowing demand. What the World Bank did not mention was that the number also represented another all-time high for oil demand. In its latest monthly oil market report, the International Energy Agency, another doomsayer for oil demand, said demand was about to actually pick up in 2025, rising from this year’s estimated 840,000 barrels daily to 1.1 million barrels daily. The IEA attributed the pick-up to the increase in demand for petrochemical products that would offset lost demand from the transport sector. Yet even demand from the transport sector is not shrinking anywhere near the rate that was predicted. China has cemented its place as the world’s number-one market for electric vehicles. These constitute increasingly large portions of total car sales. July 2024 was the first month ever in which so-called new energy vehicle sales exceeded ICE car sales. Since July, China has consistently marked months of EV sales, holding more than 50% of new car sales."

More baseload energy now.


CEI (12/27/24) blog: "The North American Reliability Corporation (NERC) released its 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Tuesday. This report examines the challenges the power grid will face over the next 10 years. The top concerns raised by this year’s report include accelerating coal and natural gas plant retirements, escalating demand growth, and declining dispatchable resources (those that can be ramped up and down to meet demand at any time). The report found that several regions of the United States and Canada are at elevated or high risk for resource adequacy shortfalls over the next decade. Most notable among these is MISO, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, which covers much of the Midwest. It was deemed high risk—a more concerning forecast than elevated risk. MISO is at risk of shortfalls by 2025 due largely to resource additions failing to keep up with the retirements of plants as demand grows. There simply aren’t enough new power plants coming online to offset retirements and rising demand. The Southwest Power Pool (SPP), which covers the middle of the US, is at elevated risk by 2025 because of low wind at peak demand in winter and summer, as well as due to natural gas supply concerns. By 2026, the New England grid faces elevated risk from demand growth and the limitations of its natural gas delivery infrastructure. PJM, the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection, will also face elevated risk by 2026, because additions to the grid are failing to keep up with retirements and growth in demand, and because of fuel supply issues in the winter. ERCOT, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, is in the same boat and at elevated risk due, in large part, to the growth of dispatchable resources not keeping pace with demand and the growth of less reliable power sources, leaving the grid vulnerable especially in extreme weather." 

EV startups fail when you don't feed them subsidies fast enough.


Bloomberg (12/23/24) reports: "Quebec committed billions of dollars to carve out its place in North America’s electric vehicle supply chain, but those efforts have been thwarted by a string of bad news. The latest: electric bus and truck maker Lion Electric Co. expects to seek creditor protection. The Saint-Jerome, Que.-based company announced in a news release the expiry of covenants on a credit line and the maturity on a separate loan as no 'alternatives have materialized and no further amendments, concessions or waivers have been obtained.' As a result, Lion expects to initiate a restructuring process under Canada’s Companies Creditors Arrangement Act, and 'pursue a formal sales and investment solicitation process in respect of the company’s business or assets.' Lion’s problems stem from delays in subsidy and incentive programs in Canada and the US, as well as supply chain disruptions, scaling issues, too many vehicle models being developed at the same time and slower EV adoption."
 

Energy Markets

 
WTI Crude Oil: ↓ $70.56
Natural Gas: ↑ $3.77
Gasoline: ↑ $3.03
Diesel: ↓ $3.49
Heating Oil: ↑ $226.75
Brent Crude Oil: ↓ $74.08
US Rig Count: ↓ 575

 

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