How Close Was The 2024 Election

WG Economy | December 20, 2024

Prior to the November election, we had talked about what can happen in close elections when the

margin was within 3%. History has shown that when the margin is within 3%, there is a significant

chance the popular vote winner may not win in the Electoral College, as we saw in 2016.

Starting with the 1856 election, which was the first contest between a Republican and Democrat, there

have been 43 presidential elections. In that timeframe, there have been 11 elections in which the

popular vote margin was 3% or less. Of those 11 elections, 4 were won by the candidate who did not

win the popular vote: 1876, 1888, 2000, 2016. In 2024, the popular vote margin — currently 1.47% —

fell within the 3% range. In this case, the popular vote and Electoral College were in agreement, with the Electoral College margin being much more decisive (15.98%) than the popular vote margin. Counting 2024 into this set of close elections, there is a 36% possibility the winner of a popular vote margin of 3% or less will not win in the Electoral College.

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