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Surveying the WMD Challenges That Lay Ahead
As the Biden administration’s four years in office draw to a close and the Trump 2.0 administration approaches, the world faces a complex, perhaps unprecedented, array of nuclear risks. At the invitation of the Arms Control Association and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, White House principal deputy national security advisor Jonathan Finer spoke on Dec. 19 on the Biden administration’s efforts to reduce nuclear dangers and adapt U.S. nuclear weapons and nonproliferation policy to an uncertain world.
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Finer outlined President Joe Biden’s efforts to deal with the challenges posed by Russia’s nuclear behavior and the looming expiration of the last remaining bilateral arms control agreement, its concerns about China’s nuclear buildup, and how this has influenced U.S. nuclear weapons policy and planning, as well as the evolving challenges posed by North Korea and Iran, and the essential need to continue to reinforce efforts to engage through arms control and disarmament diplomacy to reduce and eliminate WMD risks.
Following Finer’s remarks, we engaged in a conversation on several key issues and he took questions from the audience.
Following Finer’s remarks, our expert panel – including Madelyn Creedon, chair of the 2023 Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, Adam Mount, senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, and James Acton, co-director of Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy program – explored key considerations surrounding U.S. nuclear forces and requirements, and options for arms control constraints to head off a dangerous three-way arms race involving the United States, Russia, and China.
You can watch a video recording of the entire event online here or via C-SPAN, which broadcast the session live.
And for an in-depth analysis of the challenges and ways forward on some of the top issues of 2025, check-out the five essays in the December issue of Arms Control Today exploring the question: “Trump to Regain Control of U.S. Nuclear Policy. Now What?”
With gratitude,
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Daryl G. Kimball,
Executive Director
In 2024: Double Your Gift to Support ACA!
As 2024 draws to a close, the risks of nuclear conflict are high and growing, arms racing is accelerating, and arms control guardrails are in jeopardy.
At ACA, our team is intensifying our work to meet the increasingly difficult nuclear weapons challenges of our time. We can only make progress with the help of loyal, committed, and well-informed advocates for commonsense solutions posed the world’s most dangerous weapons – like you.
And this is a great time to give, because until the end of the year you can double your impact, gifts up to $20,000 will be matched thanks to a generous ACA member.
This holiday season and beyond, we are grateful for your generous support. Thank you.
Please make a year-end gift now.
Stronger Together: Building Field Collaboration for Nuclear Disarmament
Though we’re modest in size, ACA has and can bend the arc of nuclear weapons history in a safer direction.
However, given the scale and the scope of today’s nuclear weapons challenges, there is no single organization working in the field today that has the resources, capacity, and political power to effect the change needed today. But history shows that we are stronger and more effective together, and we can eventually succeed even against long odds.
That’s why ACA, with the support of the Prospect Hill Foundation and the partnership of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, organized a very successful “Nuclear Disarmament Campaigners Strategy Retreat” on Dec. 5-6. The gathering included a diverse group of more than 50 leaders, experts, an exciting generation of smart younger campaigners from 28 organizations from working nationally, internationally, and at the local, grassroots levels.
The in-person gathering reinforced our shared commitment to working in collaboration for nuclear disarmament at a fraught and challenging moment. Together, we identified common goals and priorities for the next 2-4 years, we discussed a game plan to launch some new and more impactful initiatives, and we agreed on next steps to help expand our outreach to engage a wider array of concerned citizens in an effort to halt and reverse a new nuclear arms race and get back on track toward a world without nuclear weapons.
We’ll keep our ACA members and friends updated as we roll out new initiatives next year.
Cast Your Ballot for the 2024 “Arms Control Person(s) of the Year”
The 2024 election season is not quite over! You can still vote online by Jan. 13 for one of ten outstanding nominees for “Arms Control Person of the Year.”
Since 2007, the independent, nongovernmental Arms Control Association has nominated individuals and institutions that have, in the previous 12 months, advanced effective arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament solutions and raised awareness of the threats and the human impacts posed by mass casualty weapons.
You can read about this year's nominees and find the ballot here: ArmsControl.org/ACPOY. Follow the discussion on social media using the hashtag
#ACPOY2024 ACA Teams Up with Kazakhstan to Promote Action on NWFZs
On Dec. 12, ACA co-hosted a roundtable discussion with Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to the United States, Yerzan Ashikbayev (pictured below, center) with key Senate staff, diplomats, and civil society experts on the critical role of nuclear-weapon-free zones (NWFZs) in strengthening global security.
The meeting, which will be the first in a series, focused on the opportunity and value of U.S. ratification of the protocols to three NWFZs - the African, South Pacific, and Central Asian - that would codify legally-binding assurances by the five major nuclear weapon states not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against states in these zones. The United States is the only remaining hold-out among the five that has not ratified the protocols.
For more information on the case for ratification, see ACA’s Issue Brief, “The Case for Senate Action on the Protocol to the Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone,” from Feb. 2024.
In case you missed it:
* “Preserving Space for a Nuclear Deal with Iran in 2025,” a Dec. 18 ACA Issue Brief, by director of non-proliferation policy Kelsey Davenport, explores how Tehran’s recent acceleration of proliferation-sensitive activities increases the risk that the United States or Israel perceive its actions as a step toward weaponization, which could trigger military action or prompt Washington to ratchet up economic and political pressure on Iran even further.
* “Pakistan’s missile program is ‘emerging threat,’ top U.S. official says” at ACA/Carnegie Endowment appearance, Reuters, Dec. 19.
* “Syria's unaccounted for chemical weapons 'extremely worrying,' UN official says,” FOX News, Dec. 10, cites ACA’s information about the status of Syria’s prohibited chemical weapons.
* “Japan's Responsibility for Inheriting Hibakusha's Legacy and Philosophy,” an op-ed by ACA Research Assistant Shiuka Kuramitsu in Fukui Shimbun, Dec. 7, 2024
* “Exclusive: Iran dramatically accelerating uranium enrichment to near bomb grade, IAEA says,” Reuters, Dec. 6, quotes ACA Director for Nonproliferation Policy Kelsey Davenport saying that Iran's acceleration of nuclear work at its underground Fordow site is "a dangerous and reckless escalation that risks derailing the prospects for negotiations with the United States.”
* “After a Cease-Fire in Lebanon, Gaza and Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions Await Trump,” The New York Times, Nov. 29, cites ACA’s Kelsey Davenport .
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Members of Congress Speak Out on the Nuclear Danger
On Nov. 13, the U.S. House of Representatives held a special order hour for speeches on nuclear weapons [[link removed]] , organized by Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.). Nine members of the House including McGovern spoke on a range of topics associated with nuclear nonproliferation, arms control, and disarmament.
The initiative was coordinated through the bicameral Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control Working Group, which was formed in 2021. Senior ACA staff provide expert advice and administrative support for the group.
“I rise today to focus on one of the most serious issues of our time: the increasing threat of nuclear weapons. Today we face the challenge that the only remaining arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia, New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, expires in February 2026,” McGovern said. “The world stands at the brink of a nuclear arms race with no guardrails or no limits,” he warned.
The nine other members of the House who took the floor were Bill Foster (Ill.) John Garamendi (Calif.), Don Beyer, Jr. (Va.), Dina Titus (Nev.), Chellie Pingree (Maine), Rashida Tlaib (Mich), Delia Ramirez (Ill.), and Mark DeSaulnier (Calif.).
Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez, D-N.M., speaks during a news conference to call for passage of the Radiation Exposure Compensation Reauthorization Act in Russell building on Tuesday, September 24, 2024. The bill would provide health screenings and financial assistance to those sickened by radiation exposure which includes uranium mining and nuclear weapons testing. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images) [[link removed]]
U.S. Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) addresses the House on Nov. 13, 2024.
Help Make a Difference through ACA’s Matching Gift Challenge!
We urgently need your help to enable us to continue our work.
We are asking you, along with all ACA supporters, to pitch in with added generosity as you make an end of the year gift.
Until the end of the year, there is a special opportunity to increase the value of your support.
Gifts up to $20,000 will be matched thanks to a generous ACA member who understands the urgency of the moment.
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With your contribution, you get access to the flagship monthly journal Arms Control Today , invitations to briefings and events, and other benefits. Make your gift at ArmsControl.org/Donate [[link removed]] .
You can also sign up for timely news and updates on the issues of interest to you, and we invite you to become part of our growing action network - learn how you can write, call, and meet with key policymakers. Sign up at ArmsControl.org/get-the-latest [[link removed]] .
There are many ways to give to ACA . Our staff can help you make a bequest [[link removed]] of charitable assets to ACA to support our work in the years to come. We also gratefully accept donor-advised fund grants, gifts of cash, stocks, or other assets , and qualified charitable distributions from an IRA. Visit ArmsControl.org/Give [[link removed]] to learn more.
AI and Nuclear Use: A Human “In the Loop” Is Necessary But Insufficient
Earlier this month, President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping met at the APEC Summit in Peru where they issued a joint statement affirming , “The need to maintain human control over the decision to use nuclear weapons.” The two leaders also stressed “the need to consider carefully the potential risks and develop AI technology in the military field in a prudent and responsible manner.”
However, the two sides did not discuss how to implement such a policy or implement safeguards to ensure it is not violated.
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Under the Biden administration, the United States and its allies have promoted the adoption of voluntary guidelines against the misuse of AI in accordance with its Political Declaration on the Responsible Military Use of Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy. This initiative includes a recommendation for the presence of humans “in the loop” for all nuclear decision-making, mirroring language contained in the Biden Administration’s 2022 Nuclear Posture Review. Congress is expected to endorse such a policy in the National Defense Authorization Act.
ACA Senior Fellow Michael Klare and Senior Analyst Xiaodon Liang write in a new ACA Issue Brief “Beyond a Human “In the Loop”: Strategic Stability and Artificial Intelligence [[link removed]] ,“ such a policy, while essential, is not sufficient to guard against the risk posed by the introduction of artificial intelligence into nuclear command and control systems.
In 2025, ACA will work with the incoming Congress to press the Pentagon to provide more detail on how the “human in the loop” concept would be implemented. We will also underscore that retaining human control over all decisions involving nuclear weapons requires the insertion of automated “tripwires” in advanced command-and-control systems to disallow escalatory dynamics, especially those that could lead to nuclear use or miscalculation.
ACA Joins Effort to Push for RECA Reauthorization
The Arms Control Association joined a diverse coalition of advocates and stakeholders on a joint letter to Congress [[link removed]] urging action in the lame-duck session to reauthorize the law compensating Americans exposed to nuclear radiation by the federal government, the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act (RECA).
The bill, which passed the Senate by a 2-1 bipartisan margin in March, has been denied a floor vote in the House by the Speaker.
For more on the case for the legislation, see: “ Congress Must Expand Support for Downwinders [[link removed]] ” in the October issue of Arms Control Today .
Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez, D-N.M., speaks during a news conference to call for passage of the Radiation Exposure Compensation Reauthorization Act in Russell building on Tuesday, September 24, 2024. The bill would provide health screenings and financial assistance to those sickened by radiation exposure which includes uranium mining and nuclear weapons testing. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images) [[link removed]]
Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez, D-N.M., speaks during a news conference to call for passage of the Radiation Exposure Compensation Reauthorization Act on September 24. The bill would provide health screenings and financial assistance to those sickened by radiation exposure which includes uranium mining and nuclear weapons testing. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
OPCW Finds Illegal Use of Toxic Chemicals in Ukraine
On November 18, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) announced the results of a Technical Assistance Visit (TAV) [[link removed]] in Ukraine confirmed the use of toxic chemicals, a riot control agent, as a weapon. For more background, see the news report in the September issue of Arms Control Today [[link removed]] .
In May, ACA and the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) Coalition called on CWC states parties [[link removed]] to condemn violations of the treaty and to support an investigation of alleged Russian use of chemical weapons in its war on Ukraine.
This week, ACA’s CWC Coalition coordinator Mina Rozei and Coalition chair Paul Walker are at The Hague to help facilitate expert input from civil society at the annual meeting of CWC states-parties. For more information on this event, see the CWC Coalition website [[link removed]] .
ACA and U.S. Campaign to Ban Landmines Condemn U.S. Transfers
On November 19, The Washington Post reported [[link removed]] that the Biden administration intends to provide antipersonnel landmines to Ukraine, breaking with its June 2022 policy [[link removed]] that the United States would, “Not assist, encourage, or induce anyone, outside of the context of the Korean Peninsula, to engage in any activity that would be prohibited by the Ottawa Convention" also known as 1997 Mine Ban Treaty.
In a joint statement [[link removed]] , and at a later White House meeting on the issues attended by executive director Daryl Kimball, ACA and U.S. Campaign to Ban Landmines strongly condemned any use and transfer of internationally-banned antipersonnel landmines to any country or actor. ACA is a member of the steering committee of the Campaign.
The move, which follows the Biden administration’s decision to transfer internationally-banned cluster munitions to Ukraine, represents another violation of the rules-based international order by the Biden administration in its effort to support the defense of Ukraine.
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ACA Chair Tom Countryman Addresses Belgrade Security Conference
On November 18, ACA Board Chair Tom Countryman was a featured speaker at the 2024 Belgrade Security Conference speaking on the subject of “The World after the U.S. and EU Elections.” You can watch a clip from the conference online here [[link removed]] .
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ACA In The News
* “Russia debuts new missile in Ukraine strike as Putin threatens West,” The Washington Post [[link removed]] , Nov. 21. Cites comments by ACA’s Daryl Kimball.
* “ What is the intercontinental ballistic missile Ukraine says Russia fired? [[link removed]] ” Reuters, Nov. 21. Cites ACA’s online resources on global missile arsenals.
* “ Putin’s Decision to Lower Threshold for Nuclear Use Is Irresponsible and Dangerous [[link removed]] ,” ACA Press Statement, Nov. 19.
* “U.S. Must Be Prepared to Expand Nuclear-Weapons Force, Biden Officials Say. Decision on whether to do so will be left to President-elect Donald Trump,” The Wall Street Journal [[link removed]] , Nov. 15. Cites remarks by senior White House official at ACA’s June 2 Annual Meeting.
* “ Iran faces fresh censure over lack of cooperation at UN nuclear meeting [[link removed]] ,” Agence France Press and The Times of Israel, Nov. 19. IAEA Director-General “Grossi’s visit to Tehran was… too little and too late to stave off a censure from the board,” His visit was “a missed opportunity for Iranian President Pezeshkian to demonstrate that he is serious about de-escalation,” ACA’s Kelsey Davenport said.
* “ Advocates call on Congress to reauthorize radiation compensation law in lame-duck session [[link removed]] ,” in The Hill , Nov. 13, cites the letter endorsed by ACA and 45, mainly local and state, organizations.
* “ Trump, Putin could agree on limits of nuclear warheads [[link removed]] ,” ACA’s Daryl Kimball tells Russia’s TASS news agency in an interview, Nov. 11. “Maintaining caps on strategic nuclear arsenals, even by way of an informal agreement between Trump and Putin, would serve U.S. and global interests,” he says.
* “ Explainer: Why nuclear weapons will be on Trump's agenda [[link removed]] ,” Reuters, Nov. 8. Cites ACA estimates of the cost of the U.S. nuclear weapons modernization program.
* “ What to expect from Trump’s second term [[link removed]] ,” ACA’s Daryl Kimball and other nuclear experts react to the election results in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Nov. 7.
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