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Week of December 9, 2024 | Iran Unfiltered is a digest tracking Iranian politics & society by the National Iranian American Council
In the last week of December 2024, schools in dozens of Iranian cities were shut down due to severe air pollution. Local officials in various provinces announced that classes would be held online throughout the week. The air quality index (AQI) in Tehran reached 158, marking a “red alert” level hazardous to all age groups. In response, authorities urged citizens to limit unnecessary outdoor activities and use public transportation. Vulnerable groups, including individuals with pre-existing conditions, were advised to avoid exposure to polluted air.
Babak Yektapour, spokesperson for the National Emergency Organization, reported a 35% increase in respiratory-related emergency calls. He highlighted a 72% rise in Tehran and a 167% surge in industrial cities like Arak. Symptoms linked to air pollution include respiratory problems, chest pain, dry coughing, eye irritation, and fatigue. Long-term exposure risks aggravating cardiovascular and respiratory health issues.
Saeid Tavakoli, CEO of Iran’s National Gas Company, warned that “gas reserves are at a critical low,” and the situation could worsen as temperatures drop. Severe weather and persistent pollution led to widespread closures across 23 provinces, including Tehran, Alborz, Isfahan, and Khorasan. Minister of Petroleum Mohsen Paknejad acknowledged the challenges but attributed the shutdowns to cold weather rather than energy shortages, stating that a 3-4°C drop in temperature increases household gas consumption by 25 million cubic meters.
Reports of power outages in Tehran and industrial hubs have further compounded the crisis and exacerbated public unrest. While the government claims these measures aim to address gas and electricity imbalances, critics argue they reflect years of neglect and poor planning. In some areas, power outages have been strategically timed during peak business hours, significantly impacting local businesses.
In this context, President Masoud Pezeshkian called on citizens to help alleviate the crisis. In a video message, he urged households and workplaces to reduce indoor heating by at least 2°C, framing it as a collective effort to ensure energy availability for all regions during this critical time. While the request reflects a pragmatic approach to addressing immediate challenges, it also sparked backlash on social media, where some criticized the government for shifting responsibility on to the public. Supporters of the president’s message highlighted the importance of public cooperation in navigating a national crisis, emphasizing that minor adjustments in energy consumption could play a significant role in preventing more severe consequences. Critics, however, viewed the call as insufficient, pointing to systemic issues that require long-term solutions.
Hamidreza Rastgar, head of the Tehran Chamber of Guilds, announced that non-essential stores must close during the crisis, leaving only essential goods providers operational. Additionally, guilds are required to reduce energy consumption, particularly electricity, to alleviate grid stress. Businesses in industrial zones report losses of up to $8 billion from recent energy shutdowns, with many unable to recover from earlier disruptions.
Industrial advocates are urging the government to invest $1 billion in power generation for industrial parks, warning that without immediate action, further losses are inevitable. Mohammad Bahreinian, a prominent industrial researcher, criticized the government’s short-sighted planning, highlighting the issuance of over a million new electricity subscriptions annually without corresponding infrastructure to meet demand.
The government’s mismanagement of energy resources is not new, but its consequences have reached unprecedented levels this year. Critics argue that successive administrations have focused on expanding consumption without preparing adequate supply strategies, leaving the industry sector to bear the brunt of blackouts while residential consumption remains protected.
The recurring crises in energy and air quality reflect deeper structural inefficiencies in Iran’s governance. Critics like Bahreinian question how policymakers failed to anticipate energy shortfalls despite clear warning signs over the years. Meanwhile, short-term fixes such as shutting down industrial zones and schools are seen as insufficient to address the long-term challenges facing Iran’s energy sector.
As the crisis deepens, calls for comprehensive energy reforms are growing louder. However, the lack of clear data on the effectiveness of current measures, combined with public dissatisfaction, raises doubts about the government’s ability to stabilize the situation.
The value of the Iranian Rial hit a historic low as the exchange rate for one U.S. dollar surpassed 77,150 tomans in Tehran’s open market on Tuesday, marking an unprecedented milestone. Meanwhile, the Euro traded at a record 81,050 tomans. In contrast, in Iran’s official currency exchange center, the U.S. dollar was valued at 63,418 tomans for cash transactions and 61,752 tomans for remittances, with the Euro priced at 66,727 tomans in the regulated market.
This rapid devaluation follows a shift in central bank policy, which ended NIMA-based currency allocations through the Integrated Currency System on Saturday. Instead of the prior system wherein currency exchanges were set at fixed rates, major exporters are now mandated to sell foreign currency earnings in a demand-driven market, which should make it easer for importers to get the currency they need.
By Wednesday, December 18, 2024, the Iranian Rial reached its lowest recorded value, dropping over 10% since Donald Trump’s re-election victory. This decline exacerbates existing challenges for Tehran, which is grappling with energy crises and regional conflicts.
According to Tehran market traders, the exchange rate plummeted to 777,000 rials per U.S. dollar, compared to 703,000 rials on the day of Trump’s victory. Mohammad Reza Farzin, Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, stated in a televised interview that $220 million had been injected into the currency market to stabilize rates, with promises of increased foreign currency supplies in the coming weeks.
Despite possessing 17% of the world’s proven natural gas reserves and ranking as the third-largest holder of proven oil reserves globally, Iran faces severe energy shortages. These crises intensify during peak summer and winter months due to heightened demand, leading to blackouts in residential and commercial areas during the summer and gas shortages and industrial shutdowns in the winter.
The combination of these energy shortages, compounded by crippling international sanctions, has deeply disrupted daily life and added economic strain on businesses and households alike.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has arrived in Cairo to attend the summit of the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation, known as the Developing Eight. This marks the first visit by a high-ranking Iranian official to Egypt in 13 years, signaling a potential thaw in the long-strained relations between the two nations.
The last such visit was made by then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2013, who met with Egypt’s then-leader Mohamed Morsi. Diplomatic ties between Tehran and Cairo have been severed since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, primarily due to Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel and the fallout over Egypt granting asylum to the exiled Shah of Iran. However, observers hope that Pezeshkian’s visit, accompanied by a high-ranking delegation, could usher in a new era in relations between the two Middle Eastern powers.
The D-8, comprising Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt, and Nigeria, represents over 1.2 billion people and a combined GDP of $4.8 trillion. Established in 1997, the group aims to strengthen economic ties among member states. This year’s summit focuses on “youth economies,” with a target to elevate trade among member states from $130 billion to $500 billion by 2030.
According to Iranian state media, a significant portion of the discussions are expected to focus on regional crises, including the situations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Pezeshkian’s schedule includes a special session on the “humanitarian crisis and reconstruction challenges in Gaza and Lebanon,” alongside bilateral meetings with regional leaders, including Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
Pezeshkian emphasized the importance of bolstering relations with Muslim nations before departing for Cairo, stating, “The closer and more practical our relations with Islamic countries become, the better we can counter conspiracies against our country and the Muslim world.”
The visit comes amid ongoing regional instability, including the continued bombardment of Gaza. Egypt, a key mediator between Hamas and Israel, plays a central role in peace efforts, while Iran has been a staunch supporter of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the now-toppled Assad regime in Syria and Hamas. Any potential dialogue between Tehran and Cairo could have significant ramifications for the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape.
Tehran and Cairo enjoyed close ties during the reign of Iran’s last monarch, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, with extensive Iranian investments in Egypt. Over the years, several attempts at rapprochement have been thwarted by hardliners in both nations. Iran’s decision to name a Tehran street after Khalid Islambouli, the assassin of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, further strained relations. However, the recent decision to rename the street was seen as a conciliatory gesture towards Cairo.
The first high-level contact in decades occurred in 2012, when Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi visited Tehran for the Non-Aligned Movement summit. Shortly after, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad traveled to Cairo for the Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit, meeting Morsi and Al-Azhar’s Sheikh. Despite being described as “historic” by Iranian media, these visits did not yield tangible improvements in bilateral relations, especially following Morsi’s ousting in 2013.
Pezeshkian’s visit comes amid cautious optimism from Iranian officials and observers who view it as an opportunity to reset relations. Mehdi Sanaei, a political advisor to Pezeshkian, described the trip as “a critical step toward strengthening regional cooperation and reviving Iran-Egypt relations.”
The Egyptian media has also noted the strategic importance of hosting the Iranian president, emphasizing Cairo’s role as a mediator in the region. As regional dynamics shift following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, some analysts believe that el-Sisi may seek to position Egypt as a key player in facilitating dialogue between Tehran and Ankara.
While the outcome of Pezeshkian’s visit remains uncertain, the stakes are considerable. With regional tensions escalating and Iran grappling with its own economic challenges and internal tensions, improved relations with Cairo could open new avenues for trade and diplomacy. Whether this visit will mark the beginning of a genuine rapprochement or become another missed opportunity will depend on the willingness of both nations to overcome decades of mistrust and seize this critical moment.
In the wake of mounting criticisms against the controversial “Chastity and Hijab” law, Shahram Dabiri, Parliamentary Deputy to President Masoud Pezeshkian, announced on Saturday, December 14, that the government has requested a temporary suspension of the law’s enforcement. Dabiri stated, “We requested that the law not be enforced for now and that a revised bill be sent to Parliament for further consideration.”
Ali Rabiei, Social Affairs Advisor to President Pezeshkian, confirmed that the law has been referred to the Supreme National Security Council for review. In a message shared on the social media platform X, Rabiei expressed gratitude for the president’s decision, writing, “Thanks to the President for placing this law on the agenda of the Supreme National Security Council in consideration of its social implications.” However, Alireza Salimi, a member of the Parliamentary Board, responded on Sunday, December 15, stating that the government’s move to revise or withdraw the law “lacks legal grounds.” Salimi asserted that any withdrawal or amendment must occur before the Guardian Council’s approval, and once ratified, no further revisions or withdrawals are permissible by the government.
Iran’s Minister of Tourism, Salehi-Amiri, voiced strong concerns about the adverse effects of the Hijab law on Iran’s tourism industry, stating that the law makes it “impossible to attract foreign tourists.” The remarks came amid broader anxieties from tourism professionals about the law’s negative impact on an already struggling sector. The law’s Article 41, which imposes severe penalties on businesses if employees or customers violate hijab rules, has drawn particular ire. Business owners face heavy fines, travel bans, and even business closures if violations occur. Fines range from two to four months’ business profits, and travel bans can extend from six months to two years.
The law, officially titled the “Protection of Family through the Promotion of Chastity and Hijab,” imposes harsh penalties, including whipping, lengthy prison terms, and heavy fines for non-compliance with mandatory hijab rules. The law even targets girls as young as 12 years old, who can be punished for not adhering to hijab regulations. Additionally, it penalizes those who are deemed to “promote nudity” or wear “inappropriate clothing.” On Tuesday, December 13, UN human rights experts called for the immediate repeal of the law, condemning it for violating basic human rights. The law has drawn widespread criticism and domestic outrage, amplifying calls for its abolition.
Nearly 100 sociologists and social researchers in Iran issued a statement opposing the law, describing it as a “violation of individual and social rights, especially for women.” The statement labeled the law as a “pseudo-legal measure” that fosters violence, insecurity, and discrimination against women. The sociologists, including notable figures such as Ahmad Bokharaei, Emadeddin Baghi, Shirin Ahmadnia, Zhaleh Shaditalab, and Saeed Moeidfar, warned that the law normalizes violence, inequality, and authoritarian control over citizens, particularly women. They demanded its immediate annulment, declaring it “legally invalid.”
Shahram Dabiri, President Pezeshkian’s Parliamentary Deputy, reaffirmed that the hijab law will remain dormant due to its “lack of enforceability.” He stated that discussions are ongoing within the three branches of government and the Supreme National Security Council to halt the law’s implementation until a suitable opportunity arises for further deliberation. Dabiri explained, “It has been discussed that a resolution should be issued to suspend this law for now, similar to how certain other laws like the satellite ban remain unenforced due to practical challenges.”
Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressed broader social and cultural issues during a December 17 meeting with pro-hijab advocates, emphasizing the need to resist “soft tactics” allegedly employed by adversaries to undermine the Islamic Republic. While he discussed general themes related to hijab and morality, Khamenei notably refrained from explicitly addressing the controversial law or opposing the government’s decision to suspend its enforcement. This silence has been interpreted by some observers as a tacit approval of Pezeshkian’s move to halt the law, signaling no direct objection to the decision amid its significant controversy.
The UN Security Council convened on Tuesday, December 17 at its headquarters in New York, where Rosemary DiCarlo, UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, read a report by Secretary-General António Guterres urging Iran and global powers to work swiftly towards restoring the 2015 nuclear deal. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015 between Iran, Britain, France, Germany, the United States, Russia and China, unraveled after the U.S. withdrew in 2018 during Donald Trump’s presidency, prompting Iran to cease compliance with its commitments. While the agreement is effectively dead politically, the United Nations provisions of the framework remain somewhat intact.
The German representative at the meeting warned about Iran’s escalating nuclear non-compliance and urged Tehran to halt its program’s expansion. Similarly, the U.S. representative called on Iran to take concrete steps to restore international trust and reduce tensions.
Britain, France, and Germany issued a letter to the UN Security Council, declaring their preparedness to trigger the snapback mechanism if necessary, to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. According to Reuters, the letter stated: “Iran must scale back its nuclear activities to create a conducive environment for meaningful progress in negotiations and diplomatic solutions.” The letter also emphasized their readiness to use all diplomatic tools, including the snapback mechanism. Under UN Security Council Resolution 2231, a lone party to the accord can theoretically initiate snapback – or the reimposition of all UN sanctions on Iran that had been imposed since 2006 and were waived under the implementation of the accord – without the possibility of a veto by other Council members. A prior attempt by the Trump administration to initiate snapback from outside the agreement failed.
A confidential report revealed on Thursday, December 12, indicated Iran’s acceptance of stricter monitoring measures by the IAEA at the Fordow facility. Iran had recently increased its production of 60%-enriched uranium to over 34 kilograms per month, nearly seven times its previous output at both the Fordow and Natanz facilities.
Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, confirmed the development, stating that Iran operates “within IAEA frameworks” and logically expects increased oversight proportional to its expanded nuclear activities. He asserted that Tehran has not and will not obstruct IAEA inspections.
Rafael Grossi, Director-General of the IAEA, stated on Monday, December 16, that the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran is now obsolete, asserting Iran is enriching uranium close to military levels and rapidly advancing towards becoming a nuclear state. Speaking during his meeting with the Italian Foreign Minister, Grossi emphasized the need for a new agreement reflecting the current realities of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
Grossi further highlighted Iran’s enrichment of uranium to 60%, nearing the 90% military threshold, and called for a fresh approach to negotiations that departs from the framework of the 2015 deal. He urged global powers, including Europe, the United States, China, and Russia, to collaborate with the IAEA in designing a more comprehensive system.
Reza Khandan, a prominent political activist, was recently arrested during a raid by security forces at his home. Reports indicate that Khandan was transferred to Evin Courthouse on Saturday, December 14, to begin serving a contentious prison sentence stemming from a 2018 case.
While the exact reason for his recent arrest remains unclear, Khandan was among the signatories of a petition calling for the immediate revocation of the death sentence for Pakhshan Azizi, an activist facing capital punishment in a highly publicized case. His arrest comes amid heightened tensions surrounding government crackdowns on dissent and raises further questions about the treatment of political activists in Iran.
Mahmoud Behzadi Rad, Khandan’s lawyer, explained in an interview with Sharq Network that the Ministry of Intelligence had previously opposed enforcing the sentence but that recent changes in enforcement policies triggered the arrest: “Unfortunately, Mr. Reza Khandan was arrested today, Friday, December 13, to serve a sentence from his 2018 case. This case was reactivated due to shifts in the judiciary’s stance on older rulings, despite opposition from the Ministry of Intelligence.”
Behzadi Rad elaborated on the case details: “Initially, Mr. Khandan was sentenced to one year of imprisonment for propaganda against the system and five years for assembly and collusion against national security. However, the Supreme Court accepted his appeal, and during retrial, his sentence was reduced under Article 134 of the Penal Code. He was ultimately sentenced to seven months and sixteen days for propaganda charges and three years and six months for assembly and collusion.”
The lawyer emphasized a critical issue in the case: “Mr. Khandan has been convicted on two charges for a single action, which raises questions about the legality of imposing multiple punishments for the same act. Such practices challenge the principles of justice and fairness.”
Khandan’s case is emblematic of the broader pattern of legal actions against activists in Iran. Over the past several years, the Iranian judiciary has faced criticism for its use of vague charges, such as “propaganda against the state” and “collusion against national security,” to target critics and human rights defenders.
Behzadi Rad also highlighted ongoing efforts to challenge the ruling: “We are pursuing his case in the Supreme Court and aim to leverage Articles 474 and 477 of the Criminal Procedure Code to overturn this ruling. These provisions allow us to request a review of the case based on legal errors or procedural violations.”
This arrest follows a series of high-profile detentions in recent months, as the Iranian government faces continued international scrutiny over its human rights record. Khandan’s history of activism has made him a prominent figure among Iran’s dissident community. His past campaigns against compulsory hijab laws, advocacy for human rights defenders, and vocal opposition to capital punishment have placed him in direct conflict with the authorities.
Khandan’s latest arrest has sparked widespread reactions among civil society and human rights advocates, many of whom view his case as a bellwether for the state of political freedoms in Iran. Social media platforms have seen a surge in messages of solidarity, with activists highlighting the disproportionate targeting of individuals advocating for basic rights.
This detention also comes amid broader enforcement of controversial policies and legal measures aimed at controlling dissent. Recent shifts in judiciary policy have revived previously dormant cases, raising concerns about the increasing use of retroactive punishment as a tool for political repression.
Khandan’s situation underscores the precarious position of activists in Iran, as systemic legal and political challenges continue to stifle dissent. His lawyer’s efforts to secure his release reflect a larger struggle for justice and accountability in an environment where such values are under constant threat.
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