FRIDAY, 12/20/2024

History is moving fast in the Middle East, raising the possibility, for better or for worse, of massive changes throughout the region. The collapse of Syria’s Assad-family dictatorship took everyone by surprise, starting with Bashar al-Assad himself, and certainly including Russia and Iran. Arab and Western intelligence services missed the regime’s vulnerability, particularly the weakness and disloyalty of its military and security services.

The brutal dictatorship is gone, but what comes next? 

Most importantly, Assad’s removal is yet another massive defeat for Iran. Following Israel’s thrashing of Hezbollah and its near-total dismemberment of Hamas, this is the third major catastrophe for Tehran’s anti-Israel “ring-of-fire” strategy. 

Disarray and fragmentation in the senior ranks of authoritarian governments are often the first signs of regime collapse. While there is considerable good news surrounding Assad’s ouster and Israel’s progress against its adversaries, circumstances in Syria still pose serious threats to peace and security in the Middle East and globally. This is no time to relax or turn away, especially for the incoming Trump administration.