DFP's newsletter of our latest polls, memos, and memes.

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Like our shared addiction to doomscrolling on TwitterXThreadsBluesky, Data for Progress isn’t going anywhere in the new year, and we appreciate you being a reader and supporter of our work. And if you’ve enjoyed or used our data this year, we won’t say no to a holiday contribution ([link removed]) . Keep an eye out for what we’ve got cooking up in 2025, and we’ll see you next year!

How the Grinch won the election

His heart’s an empty hole, his brain is full of spiders, he’s got garlic in his soul… and he was just elected the next president of the United States.

Our comprehensive post-election report ([link removed]) examines the factors that led to Trump's win, using longitudinal data collected throughout 2024. Primarily, we find that voters were upset with the economy and the status quo, while Democrats struggled to get the message out about their popular economic agenda.

What led Trump voters to choose him over Kamala Harris? It wasn’t “extremism around gender,” and it wasn’t even that he would “lower costs” or “secure the border.” For a plurality of Trump voters, and even more Independent ones, it was simply that Trump was a “change from the current Biden-Harris administration."

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Importantly, 2024 was a change election. Inflation — and specifically the cost of food and groceries — ranked as voters’ top concern. Voters blamed Biden more than any other group for what they perceived to be a bad economy, and they thought Harris would continue the same policies.

Support for Harris decreased with political news engagement, and while Harris’ economic proposals had strong support, less than half of voters heard about popular aspects of her agenda or the administration's achievements.

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It won’t be easy to solve the problems of the 2024 election, which range from backlash to an elderly and unpopular incumbent to the cost of a burrito bowl at Chipotle. But our new report offers a starting point for your analysis — and your arguments with your family over the winter holidays.

The full report includes hundreds of data points and over 40 charts to help you make sense of the 2024 election. Just a bit of light reading to go with your spiked eggnog this season.

You can give it a read here ([link removed]) .

Here are some of the top highlights from DFP this year:

Throughout 2024, Data for Progress released dozens of polls covering policy issues from health care to student debt and artificial intelligence to clean energy technology. We even found out ([link removed]) that only 56% of voters believe they exist in the context of all in which they live and what came before them.

For our end-of-year newsletter, we’re highlighting some of our most-read polls from the past year.

We’re gifting Clarence Thomas a lump of coal.

This past week, Justice Kentanji Brown Jackson made her Broadway debut ([link removed]) , while Justices Thomas and Alito were probably out on some right-wing billionaire’s yacht in the Mediterranean.

In July, we found that ([link removed]) a majority of voters said that Justices Thomas and Alito should be impeached for their undisclosed gifts and refusal to recuse themselves from Jan. 6 cases.

We also found that 61% of voters were concerned that the Supreme Court is biased towards conservative causes, including Independents by a +12-point margin.

Because the Supreme Court doesn’t have a binding code of ethics, there’s nothing to stop the Justices from ruling in favor of their conservative allies. While the Supreme Court is showered with undisclosed gifts from the .01%, it’s clear that voters want to see SCOTUS reform under the tree this year.

Popular! We know about popular!

She’s green. She’s a star. And she’s popular with voters. And no, we’re not talking about Cynthia Erivo at the Oscars next year.

This year, we retested support ([link removed]) for the Green New Deal on its fifth anniversary of introduction. Despite Republicans having spent half a decade trying to convince voters that the Green New Deal would force buildings to be rebuilt with “tiny little windows ([link removed]) ,” a majority of voters supported the Green New Deal agenda (65%).

After reading descriptions of the proposals, the Green New Deal for Public Housing (67%), the Green New Deal for Public Schools (68%), the Green New Deal for Cities (63%), and the Green New Deal for Health (68%) all had strong support from the public in our poll.

He’s a Veep, he’s a weirdo.

JD Vance is basically what happens when the guy who couldn’t stop “playing devil’s advocate” during your college debate seminar runs for public office. We tested ([link removed]) some of his most controversial statements during the election this year and found that voters clearly disagreed that the country is run by “a bunch of childless cat ladies,” that “the childless left has no physical commitment to the future of this country,” and that “Trump should fire every single mid-level bureaucrat."

Unfortunately, we know that Republicans did the best this year among voters who didn’t pay much attention to political news. So next time Vance makes some creepy statement that sounds like it could have come out of the upcoming script for Luca Guadagnino’s American Psycho remake, make sure you send it to the group text. The 2028 election (and literally everything we hold dear) may depend on it.

Make the Yuletide gay — and our communities safe for LGBTQ+ Americans

For Pride Month 2024, we conducted a survey ([link removed]) of LGBTQ+ adults, a community facing relentless political attacks.

More than a third of LGBTQ+ adults (37%), including nearly two-thirds of transgender adults (65%), said quality of life has gotten worse for LGBTQ+ Americans in the past year. And 44% of transgender adults said that they have considered moving or already moved out of their community or state as a result of anti-LGBTQ+ legislation.

Now more than ever, it will be essential to defend our queer and trans friends from Republican attacks, instead of capitulating to hate and ignorance.

(War Needs to Be Over)

In June — after Biden announced a proposed ceasefire deal to end fighting in Gaza — we found ([link removed]) that 64% of voters supported the proposal, including Democrats by a +77-point margin and Independents by a +37-point margin.

However, Israeli officials stated ([link removed]) that the country would not accept a deal that did not allow the fighting to resume. In the poll, we found that a majority of voters supported withdrawing military aid from Israel if it rejects the current ceasefire proposal. This support included 70% of Democrats, 51% of Independents, and 53% of swing voters.

In all seriousness, may this new year bring peace and liberation to Gaza and all areas of the world stricken by violence. We’re committed to continuing to highlight the unpopularity of perpetual war, no matter the administration.

DFP In The News

HuffPost: Trump Victory A ‘Broad Condemnation’ Of Biden Strategy, Progressive Group Concludes ([link removed])

Inside Higher Ed: Americans Value Trade Colleges Over Ivies ([link removed])

New York Times: Gillibrand Presses Biden to Amend the Constitution to Enshrine Sex Equality ([link removed])

The Hill: Survey: Most voters disapprove of RFK Jr.’s nomination after learning his views ([link removed])

On Social
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