📊 Deep Dive

Though we are still processing all of the data and results from last month’s huge elections, it’s never too early to start preparing, and Sister District is turning its attention to the critical elections coming up in Virginia next November. The entire VA House of Delegates (but not the state senate) will be up for election. There will also be an open gubernatorial race at the top of the ballot—the GOP incumbent governor, Glenn Youngkin, is ineligible to run for a consecutive term.

Currently, Democrats hold razor-thin majorities in both chambers of the state legislature: 51-48 in the House, 21-19 in the Senate. Note that special elections have been scheduled for Jan. 7 to fill vacancies in SD 32 and HD 26 – these seats are must-holds for VA Democrats to preserve their majorities. We know how close state legislative races can be, and in recent elections (including 2024) many pivotal races were decided by hundreds of votes. We’ve also seen that downballot roll-off—where people vote for top-of-ticket candidates but not for candidates farther down the ballot—can have serious consequences when the margins of victory are so small.

Virginia is certainly no exception. In our analysis of the last VA gubernatorial election in 2021, we found that Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe received 63,666 more votes than his fellow Democrats running for the state legislature; by contrast, Youngkin actually received 2,973 fewer votes than state legislative Republicans. Democrats lost the majority in the House that year by a combined total of just 750 votes across the 3 tightest races. These data suggest that thousands of McAuliffe voters likely rolled off, and by reducing roll-off by 750 votes (0.05% of all votes cast for Democratic VA House candidates that year), Democrats could have held the chamber in 2021. The fact that Republican state legislative candidates outperformed Youngkin indicates that they experienced very little roll-off and did a better job of persuading their voters to vote all the way down the ballot.

We must not let this happen again. In 2025, to preserve the party’s majority, it will be essential to motivate Democrats to vote for their state legislative candidates, not just for governor. One messaging approach, backed by our research, is to raise voters’ awareness of the authority that states have over the issues they care the most about. Another effective message emphasizes the power of their votes in closely contested state legislative races – showing (not just telling) voters that every vote counts, by sharing just how close the margins tend to be. Now is the time to start laying the groundwork in Virginia.

Do you have any questions about this deep dive? Have an interesting study or report you’d like us to highlight? Hit reply and let us know!