From "lesser of two evils" to wasteful runoff elections, here's what we're researching at FairVote

Dear John,

Since the polls closed on November 5, FairVote’s research team has been hard at work analyzing how this year’s elections went, and how Americans feel about the state of our politics. Today, we’re excited to share some of our latest findings!

Read on to learn about how ranked choice voting is working in Alaska and Portland, Oregon; our new polls on “lesser of two evils” and third-party voting; the exorbitant cost of runoff elections; and the growing importance of partisanship in election outcomes.

Ranked choice voting makes elections better in Alaska and Portland

The 2024 elections in Alaska and Portland, Oregon are in the books, and ranked choice voting was a major success in both.

In Alaska, 84% of voters say that they found RCV simple, and many crossed party lines in their rankings – showing how RCV empowers voters to look beyond party lines at candidate quality. After the election, bipartisan majority coalitions formed in both houses of the state legislature, putting the needs of Alaskans above partisan interests.

In Portland, where RCV was being used for the first time, 91% of voters say they understood how to fill out their ballot. Voters elected their most diverse and representative government ever.

Winners in both Alaska and Portland had broad support, and voters used RCV when it was offered to them – ranking second, third, and more candidates on the ballot.

Polls show Americans want more choices in elections

Following the 2024 elections, FairVote commissioned two national polls on how voters felt about their experience.

The first poll, conducted by Citizen Data, finds 47% of American voters feel they voted for the lesser of two evils in at least one election this year. Young voters, Black voters, and Asian American voters were especially likely to say they picked the lesser of two evils.

The second poll, conducted by Lake Research Partners, surveyed voters who supported third-party or independent candidates in the presidential election. The poll found that 87% of those voters were aware of ranked choice voting, and 86% supported it. The poll also found that most of those voters preferred Donald Trump over Kamala Harris.

Taken together, the polls highlight how voters’ preferences are more nuanced than “red versus blue,” and point to the value of reforms like ranked choice voting that can support a wider range of candidates on the ballot. With RCV, the pressure to vote for the lesser of two evils is eliminated, and voters who rank a long shot candidate first can have their vote count for a backup choice. At a time when almost half of Americans identify as politically independent, reforms like RCV are especially important.

Runoffs plagued by high costs and low turnout

Eight states hold runoff elections if no candidate wins a majority of votes in a party primary. A new FairVote report finds that every 2024 federal primary runoff had lower turnout than the first round, with turnout falling by a median of 63%. 81% of candidates who won runoffs received fewer votes in the runoff than they did in the first round, effectively negating the runoff’s purpose.

We’ve seen similar problems in general election runoffs, too; Georgia’s runoffs this month saw turnout decline by a whopping 92%!

With runoff elections, we pay more to get less – weeks more of toxic campaigning and dramatically fewer voters actually heard at the polls. Ranked choice voting is a better alternative, capturing the majority’s preferences in a single election when turnout is highest.

Read our full report on runoffs here.

Partisanship rules in congressional elections

FairVote’s Monopoly Politics project predicted the results of all 2024 U.S. House races with 98% accuracy – two years in advance. At the same time, the “incumbency advantage” has fallen to a record low – U.S. House incumbents performed just 1.1 percentage points better than non-incumbents, controlling for other factors.

These findings demonstrate just how much partisanship is the defining factor in election outcomes, rather than local issues, candidate quality, or how campaigns are run. When 72% of Americans say our country is no longer a good example of democracy, this is much of what they’re talking about – candidates are elected for their ability to box out opponents, rather than work together to make our nation stronger.

The Fair Representation Act would end “Monopoly Politics” by instituting ranked choice voting in multi-member U.S. House districts. Multiple Republicans, Democrats, and third-party candidates would compete in each House race, giving general election voters meaningful choices and forcing candidates to campaign on more than just their party label.

Thank you for taking the time to read this far. Stay tuned for more from us in 2025 – including our U.S. House projections for the 2026 midterms!

Best,

Deb Otis
FairVote Director of Research of Policy

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