The world’s coal use is expected to reach a fresh high of 8.7bn tonnes this year, and remain at near-record levels for years as a result of a global gas crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
There has been record production and trade of coal and power generation from coal since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine inflated global gas market prices, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA said the coal rebound, after a slump during the global Covid pandemic, means consumption of the fossil fuel is now on track to rise to a new peak of 8.77bn tonnes by the end of the year – and could remain at near-record levels until 2027.
The Paris-based agency blamed power plants for the growing use of coal over the last year, particularly in China which consumes 30% more of the polluting fuel than the rest of the world put together.
In developed economies such as the US and the European Union coal power generation has already passed its peak, the IEA said, and is forecast to fall by 5% and 12% respectively this year.
In the UK, coal power has been consigned to history after the last coal plant at Ratcliffe-on-Soar in Nottinghamshire generated its final megawatt in September, narrowly beating the government’s 2024 deadline.
Coal demand in China is expected to grow by 1% in 2024 to reach 4.9bn tonnes, which is another record, according to the IEA. India is expected to see demand grow by more than 5% to 1.3bn tonnes, a level previously reached only by China.
The IEA said that the forecast boom in renewable energy over the coming years is expected to keep a cap on coal use for the next three years, even as demand for electricity is expected to surge in developing countries, before demand for the fossil fuel begins to fall by the end of the decade, the report said.
Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of energy markets and security, said: “The rapid deployment of clean energy technologies is reshaping the global electricity sector, which accounts for two-thirds of the world’s coal use. As a result, our models show global demand for coal plateauing through 2027 even as electricity consumption rises sharply.”
“However, weather factors – particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer – will have a major impact on short-term trends for coal demand. The speed at which electricity demand grows will also be very important over the medium term,” he added.
Jillian Ambrose is the Guardian's energy correspondent
