Two reports examine national and state-level employment trends

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Two reports examine national and state-level employment trends
Washington, D.C. (December 19, 2024) — Two new reports from the Center for Immigration Studies reveal a significant and long-term decline in labor force participation among U.S. born working-age men, particularly those without a bachelor’s degree. The reports emphasize the untapped labor potential in the United States, with millions of U.S.-born adults remaining on the economic sidelines, challenging the argument that a shortage of workers necessitates reliance on illegal immigration.

The primary report ([link removed]) documents a six-decade long increase in the number and share of working-age U.S.-born men who are not in the labor force — neither working nor looking for work. Those who are not in the labor force are not counted as unemployed because they have not looked for work in the prior four weeks. A companion report ([link removed]) also released today highlights similar trends at the state level, underscoring the scale of this issue across the country. Both analyses highlight the social consequences of declining labor force participation, including increased crime, overdose deaths, and welfare dependency.

“Relying on immigrant workers has allowed our country to ignore the decades-long decline in labor force participation,” said Steven Camarota the Center’s Director of Research and the report’s lead author. “Reducing immigration would cause wages to rise, incentivizing work and compelling policymakers to undertake much-needed reforms in welfare and disability programs.”

Key findings:
* The share of working-age (16 to 64) U.S.-born men not in the labor force increased from 11 percent in April 1960 to 17 percent in April 2000, and to 22 percent in April 2024.
* Among “prime-age” U.S.-born men (25 to 54), the group most likely to work, the share not in the labor force was 4 percent in April 1960, 9 percent in 2000 and 12 percent in 2024.
* This rise in non-participation is not attributable to “population aging.” Even the share of younger U.S.-born men (25 to 34) not in the labor force has increased over the last six decades.
* If the 2024 labor force participation rate for U.S.-born men (16 to 64) matched the 1960 rate, there would be nine million more U.S.-born men in the labor force. Returning to the 2000 level would add more than 4 million men to the labor force.
* In total, 43 million U.S.-born men and women (16 to 64) were not in the labor force in April 2024 — 8.5 million more than in 2000. This does not include the 9.7 million immigrants not in the labor force nor does it include 5.8 million unemployed immigrants and U.S.-born.
* Focusing only on U.S.-born men without a bachelor’s degree and excluding teenagers still shows the share (20 to 64) not in the labor force increased from 7 percent in 1960 to 16 percent in 2000, and to 22 percent in 2024.
* Male immigrants (20 to 64) without a bachelor’s degree have also experienced a rise in the share not working. In 2006, 11 percent of less-educated immigrant men were not in the labor force. In 2024, it was 14 percent.
* At the state level, the share of working-age (16 to 64) U.S.-born men not in the labor force was higher in every state in 2000 than in 1960. The share not in went up further in 48 out of 50 states from 2000 to 2024.
* The largest increases in the share of working-age men not working since 2000 have been in Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, Alaska, Florida, New Jersey, Mississippi, North Carolina, and California.
* As is true nationally, the share of working-age, U.S.-born men (16 to 64) not in the labor force at the state level is most pronounced among those without a bachelor’s degree.
* While traditionally higher than the share of men, the share of women (16 to 64) not in the labor force increased dramatically from 1960 to 2000 as women entered the labor force in huge numbers. After 2000 the trend reversed, with an increase in women not in the labor force. There has been some rebound post-Covid, but participation has not returned to the 2000 level.

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Working- Age, But Not Working - 1960-2024 ([link removed])
Labor Force Participation Deterioration Among US-Born at the State Level - 1960-2024 ([link removed])

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