BRUSSELS — Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, heavy destruction in many communities and uncertain future, an estimated 1 million Ukrainian refugees had returned as of August, either permanently or temporarily. These trends raise questions for European and Ukrainian policymakers about the likely scale and drivers of future returns, as well as how they should adapt their policies and programmes to prepare for these movements. A new study across 10 Central and Eastern European countries by Migration Policy Institute Europe and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) seeks to help answer these questions, exploring how personal circumstances, host-country reception conditions and conditions in Ukraine shape refugees’ intentions to return or remain abroad. As uncertainty has grown about refugees’ future status in EU countries when temporary protection expires in March 2026 and the possibility of return, it has been difficult for those who are displaced to rebuild their lives and for policymakers to craft smart, forward-looking policies, whether focused on supporting local integration or return to Ukraine in the long term. The report, Exploring Refugees’ Intentions to Return to Ukraine: Data Insights and Policy Responses, provides the most comprehensive analysis to date of the factors influencing the return decisions of refugees who fled Ukraine following Russia’s invasion in February 2022 and offers some recommendations for policymakers. Its findings draw from advanced statistical analysis of the IOM Survey with Refugees in the Ukraine Response Region, which is the largest and most internationally comparable survey on return intentions among refugees from Ukraine in Central and Eastern Europe. Fifteen per cent of surveyed Ukrainians across the 10 countries had concrete plans to return in the near term, with 91 per cent hoping to do so over the long term, once it is safe. There is considerable variation in return intentions by host country, though, with more than 40 per cent of refugees surveyed in Poland and Czechia planning a return trip in the near future, compared to just 1 per cent for those in the Republic of Moldova. Among the factors driving differing return intentions: - Security conditions in Ukraine. Among those planning to return in the short term, 28 per cent cited improved security conditions as their primary reason—the single most important reason cited by respondents. This underscores the need for continued international efforts to rebuild and restore security in war-torn communities.
- Host-country reception conditions. Policies governing education, health and social service access for refugees from Ukraine play a vital role in shaping refugees' decision-making. Return intentions were higher in host countries with more favourable economic conditions, suggesting that refugees may be more likely to return if they have the financial resources to do so.
- Personal circumstances. Employment status and family dynamics are significant drivers of return intentions. Refugees employed in their host country were 12 percentage points less likely to say they had plans to return to Ukraine. Additionally, those with dependents, such as children or elderly family members, were less likely to state an intention to return to Ukraine.
- Status as third-country national. Just 3 per cent of third-country nationals displaced from Ukraine by the war expressed an intention to return, with 70 per cent planning to move onward and 27 per cent saying they would stay in the host country. The large share planning onward movement likely reflects the significant legal uncertainty about their status, since many have not benefited from temporary protection.
The survey analysis indicates that large-scale, one-off return movement to Ukraine is unlikely when the war ends. While many refugees intend to return eventually, the process will likely be gradual and dependent on continued recovery efforts in Ukraine. As many refugees have established roots in their host countries, return will involve ongoing movement and reintegration. ‘Consequently, policymakers in Ukraine and other European countries should seek to continue to support refugees, as a means to both facilitate their integration into local communities and to strengthen their capacity to return to and reintegrate in Ukraine once it is safe, along with designing flexible policies to manage increased movement back and forth from Ukraine’, MPI Europe analysts Ravenna Sohst, Tino Tirado, Lucía Salgado and Jasmijn Slootjes conclude. ‘These elements combined will help support the well-being of refugees and their host communities, the future reconstruction of Ukraine and the development of strong links between Ukraine and its European neighbours’. Read the report here: www.migrationpolicy.org/research/return-intentions-ukraine. And for a recent webinar on the issue, featuring experts from MPI Europe, IOM and United for Ukraine, click here. |
