As Virginia Democrats, we have always focused our energy on creating a better commonwealth that works for all Virginians, one where the principles of opportunity, equity, and sustainability lift everyone up. Yet, the 2024 election results reveal a glaring failure in executing that vision: we have failed to address the escalating housing crisis, a failure that has cost us politically and is reshaping our communities for the worse.
For the first time in decades, more people are leaving Virginia than moving in. Nowhere is this more visible than in Northern Virginia. This migration is hollowing out our middle class, weakening our economic competitiveness, and jeopardizing our long-term growth.
Over the past decade, three-quarters of Virginia’s net migration losses have come from Northern Virginia. Our population is leaving for Republican-controlled states like North Carolina, Florida, and Texas, where housing is more affordable, or relocating within Virginia to areas like Richmond, which has experienced a population boom.
The primary reason? Housing costs. New data from UVA confirms that the high cost of housing is the leading driver behind the outflow of residents from Northern Virginia to other parts of the state and beyond.
This loss isn’t just a housing problem—it’s a political and economic one. The exodus has slowed Virginia’s population growth, potentially reducing our representation in Congress and the Electoral College. It’s also eroding our middle class, as rising housing costs force working families to seek opportunities elsewhere. This same story has already started to play out in longtime Democratic-run states like New York and California. If we do not change course, Democrats risk losing over a dozen electoral votes and congressional seats after the 2030 census and redistricting.
As Democrats, we should be the party of solutions. Yet too often, we’ve been complicit in perpetuating the housing shortage. In Democratic-run cities and counties, local resistance to development, restrictive zoning laws, and cumbersome permitting processes have all contributed to a lack of housing supply, particularly in high-demand areas.
These policies have allowed affluent homeowners to block the construction of new housing under the guise of “neighborhood character,” leaving working- and middle-class renters and prospective homebuyers to bear the brunt of the crisis. This approach not only deepens inequality but has also alienated young, diverse, and working-class voters, many of whom shifted toward Republicans in November.
I know firsthand how important this issue is. When my family immigrated here, our apartment in D.C. was slated to be demolished, and we were left homeless. It took years for us to find stable, affordable housing, and we were eventually lucky enough to afford a home—something that is now falling out of reach for more and more families across our country.
Republicans have seized on this issue to advance their narrative, blaming out-migration from Democratic strongholds on taxes, crime, and cost-of-living. While their critique often oversimplifies the issues, we cannot ignore the truth: our inaction on housing has made us vulnerable to political attacks and failed the very people we claim to fight for.
The path forward is clear: we need to build more housing.
We must start by reforming zoning laws. This includes legalizing certain types of multifamily housing and accessory dwelling units in areas currently reserved for single-family homes, especially near job hubs and transit. We need to streamline development by cutting red tape and speeding up permitting processes that unnecessarily slow down housing construction.
We also need to consider state-level action. While we are frequently hesitant to override local land-use decisions, the housing crisis has reached a point where this may be necessary. Every tool must be on the table to bring down housing costs, including statewide policies that override local restrictions and encourage housing production.
The data is clear: cities like Austin and Minneapolis, which have dramatically reformed their zoning laws and expanded their housing supply, have actually seen rents fall relative to inflation over the last few years. This comes at a time when most cities have experienced historic increases in rents and housing prices.
Building more housing should be paired with additional solutions, including new funding for affordable housing programs, tax incentives for developers who build below-market-rate units, and robust tenant protections to prevent displacement and exploitation while increasing supply.
The housing crisis touches every aspect of our society. Without affordable homes, families can’t thrive, workers can’t live near their jobs, and our communities lose their vibrancy. Housing costs are eating up more and more of families’ budgets, and housing affordability is now consistently ranking as one of the top issues for voters. If Democrats are serious about building a Virginia where everyone has a fair shot, we must make housing abundance a central plank of our platform moving forward.
Northern Virginia’s struggles are a warning sign. We are at risk of losing not only residents, but also the progressive vision that makes our communities strong. Embracing a pro-housing agenda will not only help everyday Virginians but also show voters that Democrats are ready to lead.
The 2024 election was a wake-up call. Let’s use this moment to champion bold housing solutions and build a future where every Virginian has a place to call home.
