Hi there, AAPC insiders!
 
This issue is loaded with insights to sharpen your strategy. Nathan Gonzales discusses the tight margins and leadership shifts in the next Congress, Patrick Ruffini dives into evolving voter coalitions, Top Ops share their secrets of success and new Advocacy Committees tackle the industry’s biggest challenges. Let’s get into it! 🚀
 
Cass Awalt
Senior Manager, Membership
 
As a reminder, AAPC offices will be closed December 23rd through January 1st.
 
In this edition…
What’s Ahead for Congress
Patrick Ruffini on Shifting Voter Coalitions
Winning Campaign Strategies From Top Ops
New AAPC Committees Lead the Way
New and Returning Members this Month

What's Ahead for Congress

Here are the top takeaways from Nathan Gonzales’ recent AAPC webinar: [ [link removed] ]
 
Margins Are Everything
With only a couple of votes to spare, every decision and every member counts. For consultants, this means campaigns in swing districts just got even more important.
 
Thune Isn’t McConnell
According to Gonzales’ analysis, McConnell had a unique mix of respect, trust, and let’s be honest, a little fear that kept things running smoothly. Thune? Not quite the same dynamic. This could mean more infighting and a bumpier road ahead for Republicans and an opportunity for messaging on both sides.
 
Eyes on 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, the margin for 2024 also matters because Republicans may have won enough to insulate themselves from a difficult 2026 midterm. Strengthening a candidate’s position today could save a seat down the line.

Patrick Ruffini on the Diploma Divide and more

In our latest episode [ [link removed] ] of the Future of Political Consulting podcast, courtesy of our Greater NY Chapter, Chapter Co-Chairs Bradley Honan (Honan Strategy Group) and Chapin Fay (Lighthouse Public Affairs), talk with renowned GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini (Echelon Insights) and author of Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP, about the shifting dynamics of voter coalitions.
 
“The fundamental dividing line has been between those with and without a college degree,” Bradley noted, emphasizing the role of education in recent voting shifts. Patrick highlighted a striking 37-point swing toward the GOP among non-white voters without college degrees, noting that it’s “redefining the ideological terrain,” and challenging traditional partisan assumptions.
 
Locally, Chapin observed rightward shifts in New York City’s diverse communities, with Patrick describing this as a “microcosm” of national trends, explaining that these shifts are a testament to the GOP’s ability to connect on cultural and economic issues, with the former taking center stage as a key driver of voter behavior.
 
Patrick also detailed how Trump’s campaign leveraged issues like trade and immigration to win over working-class voters: “He positioned himself as an anti-establishment candidate in a way that resonated deeply. It’s a strategy that’s durable, not just because of Trump, but because of the broader realignment within the electorate.”
 
Looking ahead, Patrick stressed the importance of targeted outreach: “This is an all-of-the-above strategy, from podcasts to door-knocking in diverse neighborhoods. Campaigns need to meet voters where they are. The electorate in 2028 will look fundamentally different from what we’ve seen in the past.”
 
Subscribe to the Future of Political Consulting podcast and catch the full episode with Patrick, Bradley, and Chapin here. [ [link removed] ]

Strategies That Drove Winning Campaigns

This month, we caught up with two Top Ops honorees [ [link removed] ] —Republican Caroline Tarwid, Deputy Digital Director for the NRSC, and Democrat Dylan McArthur, Campaign Manager for Congressman Gabe Vasquez—to discuss the strategies behind their standout campaigns.
 
Caroline’s team saw their fundraising strategy was working early on, outraising every national committee online by mid-2023, by partnering with over 40 vendors and incentivizing the acquisition of new donors. “Over 60% of our donors this cycle were new to us, and we brought over 100,000 new donors into the WinRed ecosystem.”
 
Dylan’s campaign flipped a Trump +3 district with a laser focus on local issues and strong stakeholder engagement, securing a 4-point win in a challenging national environment. “About a month out from Election Day, we knew we had to stay in our own lane [and] focus on issues driving voter shifts. After polls closed, we saw a significant amount of ticket splitting.” He attributed this to an issues-focused campaign and robust local stakeholder engagement. “[Our] political stakeholder network…provided anecdotal data [and] helped us identify and address hyper-local issues. Building these relationships early…allowed us to explain how national policy affected local issues—and why our candidate was best suited to address them.”
 
Discover more about their standout approaches and the full class of 2024 Top Ops honorees here. [ [link removed] ]

Driving the Future: New AAPC Committees Lead the Way

We're launching three member-led Committees: Political Messaging, AI & Emerging Technologies, and Data & Privacy. These groups will drive innovation, promote ethics, and advocate for the industry with policymakers—all to protect free speech, democratic practices and our businesses. Contact Julie Sweet [ mailto:[email protected] ] if you'd like to learn more.

Don't Miss!

• Give the gift of recognition with a Campaign Excellence [ [link removed] ] or 40 Under 40 Award [ [link removed] ] nomination.
 • Play a vital role in honoring the most impactful work from the ‘24 cycle - apply to be a Pollie judge [ [link removed] ] .
 • Register for our Orlando Networking Luncheon [ [link removed] ] on February 4, 2025.
 • Did you use generative AI to create an ad, a chatbot for voter outreach, or predictive analytics for targeting? Share your experience with the AI Political Archive [ [link removed] ] and help us build a clearer picture of how AI is changing the way campaigns connect with voters.

Welcome to our new and returning members this month:

Rebecca Gonzalez (Broadnet), Briam Smoot (4C Partners), Fouad Oki (The Eko Akete Institute), Ty Williams (Leadership for Educational Equity), Sophia Burnett (Navigate Campaigns), Caroline Foret (Landslide Political), Geoffrey Bell (Navigate Campaigns), Sara Swezy (Sena Kozar Strategies), Ben Nuckels (Nuckels Media Partners), William Berry Jr. (William Berry Campaigns), Ryan Olson (GMMB), Grant Hodges (JCD Consulting Services), Lauren Wells (JCD Consulting Services), Phil Valenziano (ColdSpark), Lauren Titchen (ColdSpark), Lyndsey Brzozowski (Bascom Communications Group), Cathy Finney (The A.B. Data Group), Chris Schrimpf (Storytellers Mail, LLC), Sarah Bascom (Bascom Communications Group), Alicia Resnicoff (Endeavor Digital Group), James Thomas (NYS Conservative Party), Rachel Walker (ColdSpark), Matt Merriman-Preston (Change Research), Diana Andreini (ColdSpark), Kristen Grissom (Bascom Communications Group), Kelsey Deasy (Bascom Communications Group), Nick Wirth (Ethos Campaigns), Philip Cunningham (Political Communications Advertising), Candice Evans (L2 Data), Craig Broitman (Katz Television Group), Angela Loftus (Katz Digital Group), Mitch Kline (Katz Digital Group), James Green (Basis Technologies), Aaron Kelley (EMC Research, Inc.), Benjamin Koisti (Koisti Strategy Group), Jillian Davidson (National Republican Congressional Committee), Gerry Allen (The TARA Group LLC), CS Freeland (Texas Venture Alliance), Randy Skoglund (DMM Media, INC), Delana Jones (Bottled Lightning Collective), Corbin Spencer (SPLC Action Fund), Margaret Gonzalez (Katz Digital), Chelsea Sektnan (EMC Research), Jay Howser (GPS Impact), Reily Werness (Snyder Pickerill Media Group), Vriti Jain (GPS Impact), Musa Fate (Emerald Outdoor System), Matt Hilton (Echo Canyon Consulting), Rudy Cota (Echo Canyon Consulting), Sharon Aho (BrabenderCox), Timothy Persico (GPS Impact), Simon Persico (Great Society Strategies), Annie Levene (Rising Tide Interactive), Sarah Gaylard (NationBuilder), Tate Holcombe (Go BIG Media), David Huguenel (Go BIG Media), John Brabender (BrabenderCox), Dean Petrone (Go BIG Media), Tyler Spicer (Pasadena City College), Katie Tilton (Landslide Political), Whit Porter (Statecraft Digital), Alison Hiestand (Guidant Polling & Strategy), Matthew Woolbright (Kingmaker Data, LLC), Kyle Richards (Progress Action Fund), John Rasure (Convergence Targeted Communications), Hannah Stansbury (Convergence Targeted Communications), Lilah Shandel (Convergence Targeted Communications), Gavin Humble (5 Point Strategy), Jake Chapman (5 Point Strategy), Charles Nodine (5 Point Strategy), Dominick Cavalieri (5 Point Strategy), Abby Cameron (5 Point Strategy), Nicole Dunger (PeopleFirst), Kara Ramsay (Accelevate 2020 LLC), Maya Hutchinson (BattlegroundAI), Kristin Sosanie (Impulsion Strategies), Paul Rohde (Waterways Council, Inc.), Grace Willoughby, Sarah Driscoll, Sarah Boczon, Jasmine Rishi, Katreena Salgado (Imprenta Communications Group), Nachama Soloveichik (ColdSpark), Robert Barlow (Creative Direct), and Constantin Querard (US Term Limits).

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