For Immediate Release: December 16, 2024

Job Outlook to 2032 – Moderate, Gradual Change Expected

AUGUSTA - The Maine Department of Labor’s Center for Workforce Research and Information (CWRI) recently released its Job Outlook for Maine. The series of slides highlights broad trends shaping the size and rate of change in jobs and the industry and occupational trends expected in the decade from 2022 to 2032.

Some highlights include:

• Moderate, gradual change is expected to continue
• An increased share of the population will be retired
• Productivity improvements will allow an employment base that is little changed in size to meet demand from a larger population

Job growth has gradually slowed over many decades, primarily from sliding birth rates which yield smaller numbers of labor force entrants. Combined with thousands of retiring baby boomers, the number of jobs is not expected to change appreciably in the decade through 2032, even as the population gradually increases.

This situation has raised concern that there will not be enough workforce to support the population. Job Outlook shows a more complete view, recognizing that productivity gains are likely to exceed the differential in population and job growth. Output of the economy increased much faster than jobs throughout the 2000s. Expected continued improvements in the productivity of the workforce should both meet demand from a larger population and keep wages rising.

The rapid reallocation of jobs from some sectors of the economy to others that occurred in the decades leading up to 2010 has moderated since then. That moderation in change is likely to continue in the decade through 2032. Jobs are expected to gradually shift from certain functions, particularly those that can be automated, toward others. Jobs in healthcare, for example, are expected to rise in share, partly driven by increased demand from an aging population.

Detail on expected job openings for occupations and high-wage, in-demand jobs can be found here: maine.gov/labor/cwri/outlook.html.

The full job outlook can be found here: Job Outlook for Maine

Other Labor Market Context:

The Labor Market is More Dynamic Than Headline Data Portrays

Each month the net change in jobs is published along with the unemployment rate for Maine.

Underlying the usually small changes are thousands of job transitions that occur. Some start and others leave a job and some hold multiple jobs for part or all of the year. Labor Market Dynamics in Maine, published by the Department of Labor’s Center for Workforce Research and Information, highlights patterns underlying the number of jobs and job change.

Among the highlights:

• Nearly eight percent of wage and salary jobholders have more than one job
• Rates of multiple jobholding are highest among workers whose primary job is in healthcare and social assistance, education, leisure and hospitality, or retail trade
• Earnings of workers with more than one job are close to, but slightly lower than for those with a single job
• In economic downturns, including in 2020, the number of job starts, or hires, typically decreases as much or more than the number of job separations, or layoffs, increases
• Most sectors have some seasonal employment patterns, though leisure and hospitality business account for most job starts related to summer tourism. This also drives seasonal patterns in multiple jobholding.

The article can be found here: maine.gov/labor/cwri/blogs/LaborMarketDynamics2024.pdf

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