December 16, 2024

 
 

Gaza and the Hostage Issue

Q. Following upon the defeat of Hezbollah, the fall of Assad in Syria and multiple setbacks for Iran, the prospects for an Israel-Hamas hostage deal appear to be improving. And after the deal: what fate awaits the Gaza Strip itself?

A. All relevant parties--Israel, Hamas, Egypt, Qatar, the US--have stepped up the pace of multilateral negotiations over a hostage deal and ceasefire in Gaza. A resurgent Turkiye, after its Islamist allies triumphed over Assad in Syria, is bidding for a role. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu appears finally to be pushing a majority of his right-messianic coalition toward agreeing to the prolonged ceasefire that will be necessary for a prisoner-for-hostage exchange. The heads of Mossad, Shin Bet and the IDF have been in Egypt for talks.

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan just visited Israel, Egypt and Qatar and expressed optimism that a deal could be finalized before President Biden leaves office on January 20, and possibly even this month. US President-elect Donald Trump, waiting in the wings, has threated Hamas that it will “have hell to pay” if it does not free the hostages before he takes office (though what new punishment he could possibly inflict on Gazans after more than a year of death and destruction is not clear). Trump’s designated hostage affairs envoy, Adam Boehler, will arrive in Israel this week.

US pressure and incentives, by both Biden and Trump, appear to be having some effect. It is fascinating to note the degree of apprehension and expectation in Israel projected by Trump’s impending second term when most likely, beyond bluster, he himself has little idea what he will do in the Middle East.

Q. Do we know the outlines of a hostage deal?

A. Not really. This time around, the negotiators are avoiding leaks. Based (cautiously) on informed speculation, it would appear that the deal will play out in stages. It will begin with release of women, children and elderly and ill hostages--sadly, those that Hamas can locate in the ruins of Gaza. Israel will withdraw at least temporarily from some occupied territory such as the Philadelphia Strip separating Gaza from Egyptian Sinai.

At least some of the Hamas prisoners Israel frees will be repatriated not to Gaza but to the West Bank. The Palestinian Authority will possibly play a role supervising a reopened Rafah crossing to Egypt. Augmented humanitarian aid will flow.

The hostage-release phases are expected to generate further negotiations regarding IDF withdrawal. But this is where the picture gets murky.

Yossi Alpher is an independent security analyst. He is the former director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University, a former senior official with the Mossad, and a former IDF intelligence officer. Views and positions expressed here are those of the writer, and do not necessarily represent NJN's views and policy positions.

1. Bills, Resolutions
2. Letters
3. Hearings
4. Selected Members on the Record
5. Selected Media & Press releases/Statements

1. Bills & Resolutions

New legislation

  • (TARGETING WEST BANK SETTLER TERRORISTS) HR 10343/S. 5467 [bill text]: Introduced 12/10/24 in the House by Lee (D-PA) and 9 Democratic cosponsors, and in the Senate by Welch (D-VT) and 5 cosponsors (4 Democrats and 1 Independent). “A bill to codify Executive Order 14115 imposing certain sanctions on persons undermining peace, security, and stability in the West Bank,” aka, the “Sanctions and Accountability for Non-Compliance and Transparent Investigative Oversight for National Security (SANCTIONS).” Referred to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs and the Judiciary, and the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. Also see: Welch Introduces Bicameral Bill to Codify Biden-Era Executive Order on West Bank Sanctions; Rep. Summer Lee and Senator Welch Introduce Bicameral Legislation to Codify U.S. Sanctions Against Persons Enacting Violence in West Bank

  • (SPACE/SATELLITE SECURITY FOR ISRAEL & FRIENDS) HR 10353: Introduced 12/11/24 by Bacon (R-NE), “To direct the Secretary of Defense to conduct an assessment of space and satellite security relating to ally and partner countries in the Middle East.” Referred to the  Committee on Foreign Affairs and the Committee on Armed Services.

  • (NAKED TRANSACTIONALISM AS BIPARTISAN US MIDEAST POLICY) S. 5517: Introduced 12/12/24 by Budd (R-NC) and Hassan (D-NH, “to provide for the establishment, within the Food and Drug Administration, of an Abraham Accords Office to promote and facilitate cooperation between the Food and Drug Administration and entities in Abraham Accords countries wishing to work with the agency in order to develop and sell products in the United States, and for other purposes.” Referred to the Committee on Foreign Relations.

Updates on Pending Bills

  • Antisemitism Awareness Act, aka HR 6090 / S. 4127 (covered in detail in past Round-Ups)

    • No luck attaching it to the NDAA: Jewish Insider 12/9/24: Schumer’s bid to add Antisemitism Awareness Act to NDAA defense bill fails [“The 2025 National Defense Authorization Act was released Saturday evening, without the antisemitism bill, following opposition from House Speaker Mike Johnson“]; The College Fix 10/10/24: Bill to combat campus antisemitism stalled in Senate

    • ADL laments not attaching the AAA to the NDAA: Anti-Defamation League 12/9/24 X-post – “We’re disappointed to see the Antisemitism Awareness Act fail to move forward. As ADL’s Lauren Wolman said, “Combatting antisemitism is not and cannot be allowed to become a partisan issue.” We urge Congressional leaders to pass this important legislation quickly.

    • New idea: add it to the Continuing Resolution! Jewish Insider reports that, having failed at adding the AAA to the NDAA, Schumer is not looking to attach it to the upcoming Continuing Resolution. The CR is another piece of must-pass legislation; given the inability of Congress to pass appropriations bills (which provide funding for government operations), a CR is required to prevent a government shut-down. It is not clear why Schumer thinks this tactic would succeed, given Johnson’s clear insistence on a Senate vote on the AAA in isolation — a demand that in effect allows Johnson and friends to dunk on Democrats for failing to pass the bill, while also enabling them to avoid dealing with the fact that a large part of the US right – across the spectrum from mainstream- to far-right – have deep reservations about (or strongly oppose) the AAA.  For example see: Jewish Insider 12/10/24: Trump DOJ civil rights pick blasted campus protests, opposed Antisemitism Awareness Act [“‘I have been a First Amendment and religious liberties lawyer for minority and majority faith communities for decades and this bill is knee-jerk anti-constitutional dreck,’ Dhillon said. ‘Do better, think harder, and be smarter, Congress. ‘Hate speech’ laws are a liberal concept.’”]

    • ADL Still Pushing Stealth passage of AAA by Attaching it to the CR: Demonstrating that they are not letting up on their campaign to have Congress pass the AAA, on 12/11/24, the Anti-Defamation League posted on action alert to followers on X: “Time is running out. If Congress doesn’t act before Dec 20th, the Countering Antisemitism & Antisemitism Awareness Acts must be reintroduced in the next Congress.   Urge @SpeakerJohnson & @SenSchumer to attach these bills to the Continuing Resolution that funds the US Government.” Center for National Policy’s Dylan Williams commented on the ADL’s post, noting (accurately – as if facts actually matter): “Nope. Much of the US Jewish community opposes the ‘Antisemitism Awareness Act’ because it targets Constitutionally-protected criticism of Israel instead of actual antisemitism. Trying to sneak it through in the bill to keep the government funded shows just how problematic it is.

Lara Friedman is the President of the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP). With more than 25 years working in the Middle East foreign policy arena, Lara is a leading authority on U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, with particular expertise on the Israeli-Arab conflict, Israeli settlements, Jerusalem, and the role of the U.S. Congress. Views and positions expressed here are those of the writer, and do not necessarily represent NJN's views and policy positions.

 
 
 
 
 

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