“A severely hobbled Hezbollah was in no position to help defend former Syrian
President Bashar Assad, a longtime ally, from the lightning-fast insurgency
that toppled him. With Assad gone, the militant group based in Lebanon is even
weaker. Hezbollah was dealt a major blow during 14 months of war with Israel.
The toppling of Assad, who had strong ties to Iran, has now crippled its
ability to bounce back by cutting off a vital weapons-smuggling route through
Syria. Hezbollah officials are deeply concerned but defiant. “What is happening
in Syria is a major, dangerous and new change, and to know why this happened
needs evaluation,” Hassan Fadlallah, a Lebanese lawmaker who represents
Hezbollah’s political wing, said during a speech at a funeral for militants
killed by Israel.”











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Eye on Extremism



December 16, 2024



Associated Press: A Diminished Hezbollah Is Made Even Weaker By The Toppling
Of Assad In Syria
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“A severely hobbled Hezbollah was in no position to help defend former Syrian
President Bashar Assad, a longtime ally, from the lightning-fast insurgency
that toppled him. With Assad gone, the militant group based in Lebanon is even
weaker. Hezbollah was dealt a major blow during 14 months of war with Israel.
The toppling of Assad, who had strong ties to Iran, has now crippled its
ability to bounce back by cutting off a vital weapons-smuggling route through
Syria. Hezbollah officials are deeply concerned but defiant. “What is happening
in Syria is a major, dangerous and new change, and to know why this happened
needs evaluation,” Hassan Fadlallah, a Lebanese lawmaker who represents
Hezbollah’s political wing, said during a speech at a funeral for militants
killed by Israel.”



Associated Press: Death Toll In Gaza Strip From Israel-Hamas War Tops 45,000,
Palestinians Say
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“The death toll in the Gaza Strip from the 14-month war between Israel and
Hamas militants has topped 45,000 people, Palestinian health officials said
Monday, with 52 dead arriving at hospitals across the bombed-out strip over the
past 24 hours. The Gaza Health Ministry does not distinguish between civilians
and combatants in its count, but it has said that more than half of the
fatalities are women and children. The Israeli military says it has killed more
than 17,000 militants, without providing evidence. The Health Ministry said
45,028 people have been killed and 106,962 have been wounded since the start of
the war. It has said the real toll is higher because thousands of bodies are
still buried under rubble or in areas that medics cannot access.”




CEP Expert Analysis

*
ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency In October 2024
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*
ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency In September 2024
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CEP Report: Civilian Counterterrorism Militias Take Action, Introduce New
Challenges to Combatting Violent Extremism in Africa
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CEP Policy Brief: Identifying and Disrupting Key Antisemitic Actors
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Extremist Content Online: Extreme Right Celebrates Anti-Muslim Immigration
Riots on Telegram and X
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CEP Mentions



iMEdD News: “Do Whatever You Need To Do To Survive In Syria”: The Person
Behind Assad’s Overthrow
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“The Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has been at the forefront of
international news over the past 24 hours following its advance on Damascus and
the December 8, 2024 toppling of the Assad regime after five decades in power.
HTS appears to be leading the coalition of rebel units in Syria that launched
an offensive against government forces two weeks ago from the city of Idlib in
the northwest of the country... Dr. Hans-Jakob Schindler, a diplomat with years
of experience in Middle East affairs, former coordinator at the UN Security
Council and now director of the Counter Extremism Project, a non-profit
organization with offices in New York and Berlin, tells iMEdD that it will take
time to prove that the shift away from Islamic extremism advocated by HTS is
sincere. “The group’s history is really also the current leader’s history,”
says Dr. Schindler, highlighting al-Jolani’s role in the creation and
development of the organization.”



United States



Associated Press: US Officials Have Been In Direct Contact With The Syrian
Rebel Group That Ousted Assad, Blinken Says
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“American officials have been in direct contact with the terrorist-designated
rebel group that led the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar Assad, U.S.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Saturday. Blinken, speaking at a news
conference in Jordan, was the first U.S. official to publicly confirm contacts
between the Biden administration and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, which led a
coalition of armed opposition groups that drove Assad from power and into
asylum in Russia last weekend. Along with counterparts from eight Arab nations
and Turkey and senior officials from the European Union and United Nations,
Blinken signed off on a set of principles meant to guide Syria’s transition to
a peaceful, nonsectarian and inclusive country.”



The Washington Post: Virginia Man Convicted Of Funding Islamic State In
Terrorism Trial
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“Mohammed Chhipa led a double life, by his own attorney’s telling, spreading
online propaganda for the Islamic State with “bravado and bluster” while he was
brooding in Northern Virginia as “a lonely, sad and deflated man” secretly
being monitored by the U.S. government for a decade. Federal prosecutors said
he then took a darker turn, fleeing the country after agents searched his
Fairfax County home in 2019 and sending funds over the next three years to an
Islamic State operative who had broken out of a refugee camp run by the Syrian
Defense Forces and was working to free other women. After a week-long trial, a
jury in U.S. District Court in Alexandria agreed Friday, convicting Chhipa on
all charges, including conspiracy and providing material support to a foreign
terrorist organization.”



Reuters: Blinken, In Turkey, Discusses Islamic State In Syria, Gaza Ceasefire
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“U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan
Fidan agreed on Friday on the need for continued efforts to counter any
resurgence of Islamic State in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad.
Washington's top diplomat also said that he discussed the imperative of
Palestinian militant group Hamas saying "yes" to a Gaza ceasefire agreement in
his talks with Turkey's president and foreign minister. A U.S. official said
Hamas has softened its position in ceasefire talks. Blinken is touring the
Middle East to establish a united front with Arab and Turkish allies on the set
of principles that Washington hopes will guide Syria's political transition,
such as inclusivity and respect for minorities. He said on Monday that Islamic
State would try to use this period to re-establish capabilities in Syria, but
the United States was determined not to let that happen.”



Syria



CBS News: U.S.-Backed Syrian Forces On Edge Amid Concern ISIS Could Try To
Stage A Comeback On Heels Of Assad's Ouster
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“CBS News was among the first news outlets to speak on Thursday with Travis
Timmerman, an American who was feared dead by family and friends, days after he
was freed from a notorious prison in Syria. He said he had spent seven months
jailed by the regime of now-ousted dictator Bashar al-Assad before rebels broke
down his cell door. But he was just one of the many thousands of people locked
up over half a century of iron-fisted rule by Assad, and his father before him.
Many remain missing, and the rebel forces, along with the families of those
who've disappeared without a trace, have mounted a herculean effort since Assad
fled to Russia on Sunday to find those who vanished. But there's one group of
prisoners that Syria's still-evolving, rebel-led leadership wants to keep
behind bars.”



Reuters: The Fall Of Assad In Syria: How It Happened And What Comes Next
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“The rebels who ended the Assad family’s brutal rule in Syria began asserting
control on Monday. They took up positions outside public buildings in Damascus
and directed traffic in a show of their newly claimed authority. Major
questions remained unanswered, including who would lead the new government.
Euphoria around the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad over the weekend mixed
with uncertainty about the future of the country and the intentions of the
rebels who now hold the capital, Damascus. Here’s a guide to understanding how
the rebels unseated Mr. al-Assad, and what may come next. In just over a week,
Syrian rebel forces seized much of Syria’s northwest.”



Turkey



Reuters: Turkey Ready To Offer Military Training To Syria If New
Administration Requests, Minister Says
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“The new administration in Syria should be given a chance to govern following
their constructive messages, and Turkey stands ready to provide military
training if such help is requested, Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler said.
NATO member Turkey backed the Syrian rebels who toppled President Bashar
al-Assad last weekend, ending a 13-year civil war. Turkey reopened its embassy
in Damascus on Saturday, two days after its intelligence chief visited the
Syrian capital. "In their first statement, the new administration that toppled
Assad announced that it would respect all government institutions, the United
Nations and other international organisations," Guler told reporters in Ankara
in comments authorised for publication on Sunday.”



Fox News: Turkey Seeks To Purge Pro-US Kurdish Force That Helped Defeat
Islamic State In Syria
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“Just hours after meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and
discussing the fight against the Islamic State in Syria, Turkey's foreign
minister sent a shocking message to Washington by saying his country's goal is
to eliminate the main fighting force of the Syrian Kurds, which defeated ISIS
in tandem with the U.S.. According to Turkish media, Foreign Minister Hakan
Fidan said in a live broadcast on NTV that "the elimination of YPG is
[Turkey's] strategic goal." He also noted the country's Kurds must be
protected. Asked about Fidan's comments, the State Department referred Fox News
Digital to comments made earlier on Friday after Blinken's meeting with Fidan
in Turkey. The statement said, in part, "Secretary Blinken emphasized the
importance of U.S.-Turkish cooperation in the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS
mission in Syria."”



Afghanistan



Voice Of America: Taliban Minister’s Killing Raises Concerns About IS Terror
Group’s Expansion
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“The recent assassination of a Taliban minister in Afghanistan by a local
Islamic State offshoot has raised concerns about the terrorist network's
expansion in the region, while signifying an escalation of the terror group’s
conflict with the country’s de facto Taliban leaders. Taliban Minister of
Refugees and Repartition Khalil-Ur-Rahman Haqqani was killed, along with
several staff members, in a suicide bombing while he was exiting his office in
the Afghan capital on Wednesday. Haqqani, 58, is the highest-profile target of
Islamic State-Khorasan, or IS-K, since the Taliban swept back to power in
August 2021. The group has so far killed at least eight high-ranking Taliban
officials and prominent figures in suicide bombings.”



Associated Press: UN Security Council Criticizes Taliban Ban On Afghan Women’s
Medical Education
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“The U.N. Security Council said Friday it was deeply concerned about the
recent decision by Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers to ban women from medical
education, which could leave millions of women and girls without health care in
the future. The council criticized “the increasing erosion” of human rights
under the Taliban, especially for women and girls who have been denied access
to education beyond the sixth grade, economic opportunities, participation in
public life, freedom of movement and other basics. Authorities previously had
not confirmed reports that Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada ordered
educational institutions to stop providing medical courses for women. In
Afghanistan, women and girls can only be treated by female doctors and health
professionals.”



Middle East



Reuters: Palestinian Security Forces Clash With Militants In West Bank
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“At least one person was killed as Palestinian security forces clashed with
Palestinian militants and set up checkpoints on Saturday in the occupied West
Bank city of Jenin, residents and medics said. Gunshots and explosions could be
heard in the city, where friction has risen in recent days between militant
factions and the Western-backed Palestinian Authority (PA) of Palestinian
President Mahmoud Abbas following raids by the PA. Residents identified the man
who was killed as a militant though none of the factions immediately confirmed
his affiliation. The PA's security branch said in a statement that its forces
were undertaking a security operation to restore law and order to Jenin's
historic refugee camp suburb, a stronghold of Palestinian militants alienated
from the Palestinian leadership.”



Reuters: At Least 22 Killed In Israeli Gaza Strikes, Palestinian Medics Say
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“At least 22 Palestinians were killed in Israeli airstrikes in Gaza on
Saturday, medics said, while the Israeli military said it targeted gunmen
operating from shelters and aid storages. At least 10 people were killed in an
airstrike near the municipality building in Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza
Strip where people gathered to receive aid, medics said. Casualties were being
carried by foot, on rickshaws and private cars from the site of the attack to
the hospital, medics said. The strike killed the head of the Hamas-run
administrative committee in central Gaza, Diab Ali al-Jaru, a Hamas source
said. The Israeli military said al-Jaru, who was also the mayor of Deir
Al-Balah, was the target of the strike and that he had assisted Hamas
militants. Four more people were killed in a separate strike in the area.”



Bloomberg: Palestinian Authority Mounts Rare, Lethal Raids In West Bank
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“The Palestinian government has been carrying out a rare and lethal sweep
against militants in a flashpoint West Bank city, saying it was needed to foil
an imminent car-bombing and other attacks. The operation by the Palestinian
Authority, targeting Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants in the city of Jenin,
was launched on Dec. 5 but only announced this weekend as clashes escalated.
Three Palestinians — at least two of them gunmen — have been killed and several
PA security men wounded. “The security forces managed to prevent potential
disasters for our people,” the PA military spokesman, Brig.-Gen. Anwar Rajab,
said, accusing local gunmen of “ISIS-like practices and behavior.” The
operation comes as the PA is seeking to bolster its credibility as an
organization capable of strong governance, amid ongoing Israeli raids there and
Donald Trump’s return to the White House.”



Africa



The New York Times: Security Strategy Of Recruiting Cheap Militiamen Backfires
In Africa
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“They were falling asleep on a thin mat that they had been sharing since they
were married five years ago. Suddenly, the roar of motorcycles woke them up.
Armed men then dragged Rainatou Diallo and her husband, Adama Diallo, out of
bed and into their courtyard. Without a word, the men shot Mr. Diallo dead. As
Ms. Diallo fled the village, one of many engulfed by violence in Burkina Faso,
she recognized her husband’s masked killers: They were neighbors. Burkina Faso,
a nation that once prided itself on tolerance and peaceful interethnic
relations, is now home to one of the deadliest conflicts in West Africa. Since
the current military leader, Capt. Ibrahim Traoré, seized power in a coup in
2022, he has escalated a war against Islamist insurgents that has now killed
tens of thousands of people and displaced nearly three million others.”



Associated Press: Gunmen Clash In A Libyan City And Fires Erupt At A Nearby
Oil Refinery
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“Clashes broke out Sunday between armed groups in a western Libyan city,
trapping residents in their homes and causing fires in the country’s second
largest oil refinery, officials said. The fighting in the coastal city of
Zawiya, about 47 kilometers (about 30 miles) west of capital Tripoli, pitted
gunmen loyal to the Shurafaa tribe against warlord Mohamed Kushlaf, according
to local media. Kushalf was sanctioned by the U.N. Security Council in 2018 for
his alleged involvement in human trafficking. It wasn’t immediately clear what
triggered the clashes but they are not uncommon in western Libya, which is
controlled by an array of lawless militias and armed groups allied with Prime
Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah’s government. Oil-rich Libya has been divided for
years between rival administrations in the east and west.”



France



Reuters: France To Send Diplomats To Syria On Tuesday
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“France will send a team of diplomats to Syria on Tuesday to assess the
political and security situation, the foreign ministry said, without specifying
whom they would meet. Most EU governments welcomed Bashar al-Assad's fall but
are considering whether they can work with the rebels who ousted him, including
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group that is designated a terrorist
organisation by the EU. "A team of French diplomats will travel to Syria this
Tuesday to mark France's willingness to support the Syrian people," the
ministry said, adding that they would report back to the foreign minister after
a series of contacts there. Since cutting ties with Assad in 2012, France has
not sought to normalise ties with Syria's government and has backed a broadly
secular exiled opposition and Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria.”



Europe



Associated Press: Four Men Arrested In North Macedonia During Anti-Terror
Operation, Interior Minister Says
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“Four men suspected of planning terrorist attacks were arrested Sunday in
western North Macedonia, authorities said. Interior Minister Panche Toshkovski
said the arrests were made during raids on several locations in the western
towns of Struga and Gostivar. The four men are suspected of being “part of
terrorist organizations (and) have been under surveillance for a long time.”
All are Macedonian nationals and were expected to face an investigating
magistrate Sunday. Toshkovski did not specify what terrorist organizations the
suspects were connected with. “We have reasonable suspicion that they are
connected to groups supporting certain extremist and religious organizations,”
he said.””



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