|
A note from the editor, Ryan Costello: Thank you, Iran Unfiltered readers, for your continued interest in our efforts to shine a light on Iranian politics and society. If you have found this newsletter to be helpful and informative, please consider making a donation today so that we can continue our work to provide this critical resource. Every week, my colleagues on the NIAC team closely track events in Iran, translating important developments into English and sharing them with you, free of bias. Any support you can provide would be greatly appreciated and help us prepare for the important year to come. DONATE
Week of December 9, 2024 | Iran Unfiltered is a digest tracking Iranian politics & society by the National Iranian American Council
The dramatic fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, has profoundly reshaped the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. For Iran, the loss of its most significant ally in the Levant represents a seismic shift, forcing a reevaluation of its regional strategy. The severing of its direct connection to Lebanon weakens the “Axis of Resistance,” leaving Tehran to grapple with the consequences of this pivotal moment.
The collapse of Assad’s government, culminating in his flight from Damascus, exposed the fragility of his regime despite years of extensive support from Iran and Russia. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist group that spearheaded the opposition, swiftly declared Syria “free,” calling for the return of displaced Syrians. Following Assad’s collapse, the Iranian embassy in Damascus was stormed by opponents, underscoring Tehran’s declining influence after years of warfare against rebel forces that now dominate Syrian politics. Videos shared online depicted defaced portraits of Iranian figures like Qassem Soleimani and Hassan Nasrallah, highlighting the symbolic loss of authority.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei responded to Assad’s fall in a major speech Wednesday by framing it as part of a “U.S.-Israeli plot” to destabilize the region. He stressed that resistance is a belief system that strengthens under pressure, asserting that Iran’s ideological commitment remains unshaken. Khamenei justified Tehran’s military involvement in Syria as a defensive measure to counter ISIS and protect regional stability.
In his address, Khamenei emphasized that Iran’s efforts in Syria had been hampered by external forces. He highlighted how U.S. and Israeli airstrikes blocked aid routes, isolating pro-Assad forces: “In the final days, plans were in place to deliver aid and supplies to the people of a Syrian region—particularly Zainabiya. However, the Zionists blocked all land routes, and American and Zionist aircraft conducted extensive operations to prevent the delivery of this aid by air. If they are not directly involved in the conflict and are not supporting certain terrorist or militant groups against Syria, why did they obstruct humanitarian aid intended for the Syrian people?” Despite these challenges, Khamenei expressed confidence in the resilience of the resistance movement, predicting its continued growth across the region.
Khamenei’s remarks noting the U.S. and Israeli role in blocking Iran and ousting Assad were mirrored by triumphalist remarks from both Biden and Netanyahu, claiming that the broader regional war had weakened the proxy network that propped up Assad. However, the decisiveness of the U.S. and Israel role is very much open to debate. HTS appears to have received significant military support from Turkey, and reports have emerged that Ukraine provided drones and trained HTS forces in their operation prior to the lightning offensive that swept the Assad regime from power. Moreover, as noted by separate Iranian officials, the Syrian government army largely seems to have abandoned their positions without putting up much of a fight – underscoring the weakness of the government despite years of reprieve following what had appeared to be the triumph of the government in the civil war. As they have noted, if Syrians were unwilling to die for the government, it was unclear what Iranian forces could do.
The fall of Assad also brings attention to the evolving relationship between Hamas and Syria. Tensions between the two began in 2011, when Hamas openly supported opposition forces against Assad’s regime, leading to a significant rift. However, following Assad’s fall, Hamas congratulated the Syrian people on their “success in achieving freedom and justice.” This shift underscores Hamas’ willingness to realign with the emerging power structures in Syria. It remains unclear whether such support will lead to tensions or another break between Iran and Hamas, or if Iran could utilize Hamas’ outreach to the Syrian government to seek to rebuild relations with the new government.
The news of Assad’s collapse elicited a spectrum of reactions among Iranian politicians. Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, a former Iranian MP, welcomed the development, criticizing the financial drain caused by Iran’s support for Assad. He tweeted, “No one has the right to squander the nation’s dollars on preserving spider webs anymore.” In contrast, Amirhossein Sabati, a hardline MP, accused Falahatpisheh of aligning with “Israeli positions,” defending Iran’s involvement in Syria as a strategic necessity. Sadegh Zibakalam, a reformist academic, celebrated Assad’s fall, describing it as beneficial for both Syria and Iran. He criticized the massive financial aid Iran provided to prop up Assad’s oppressive regime.
Ahmad Naderi, another MP, argued that Iran should pursue nuclear deterrence in response to Assad’s fall. He described the Syrian opposition as a “rebranded Islamist coalition supported by Western media” and called for urgent recalibration of Iran’s regional strategy. Naderi had previously expressed concern about Iran’s inaction, tweeting, “Syria is on the brink of collapse, and we are passively watching. If Damascus falls, Lebanon and Iraq will follow, and we will have to confront the enemy at our borders.” Kambiz Mahdizadeh, the son-in-law of former President Hassan Rouhani, remarked, “He was an ophthalmologist, but he failed to see his people and has now been consigned to the dustbin of history.”
The loss of Syria dismantles Iran’s logistical network to Hezbollah in Lebanon, complicating support for its key proxy. Along with the weakening of Hamas, Tehran’s ability to project power against Israel and deter future attacks is significantly diminished.
Speculation has mounted that Israel views the loss of Syria as a key tactical advantage for possible future Israeli strikes on Iranian territory, including potentially targeting the Iranian nuclear program, with Syrian airspace no longer contested. As reported by The Times of Israel, Israel Defense Forces “believes that following the weakening of Iranian proxy groups in the Middle East and the dramatic fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, there is an opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, military officials said Thursday.”
Israel has opportunistically exploited the fall of the Assad government, seizing a buffer zone beyond the occupied Golan Heights including the strategically-positioned Mount Hermon, the highest point in Syrian territory. Alongside this move, both the U.S. and Israel have engaged in hundreds of airstrikes targeting Syrian government military assets, including air defenses and the Syrian navy. The new Syrian coalition government, amid the chaos, just today sent a letter to the United Nations condemning Israel’s recent military actions on Syrian territory following a muted initial response.
Nonetheless, Iran maintains leverage through its advanced nuclear program and its entrenched presence in Iraq and Yemen. Amid the fall of the Assad government, Iran undertook a major expansion of its nuclear work, escalating its enrichment of uranium to the 60% threshold at the deeply-buried – and difficult to destroy – Fordow facility by several orders of magnitude. Reports of Iranian outreach to Syrian opposition groups, including possible communication with HTS, also highlight that Tehran may pursue a pragmatic approach to try to regain influence. A senior Iranian official quoted by Reuters emphasized the need to prevent hostility, signaling Iran’s intent to rebuild ties with Syria’s new leadership. This shift reflects Tehran’s adaptability in safeguarding its regional interests.
The collapse of Assad’s regime marks the end of an era for Iranian influence in the Levant. Whether Tehran can adapt to this new reality will depend on its willingness to confront hard questions about its priorities and alliances. The emerging debates within Iran suggest that the country may be at a crossroads, with the potential for significant changes in its approach to regional and international relations.
In a society where strict regulations stifle artistic expression, Parastoo Ahmadi’s defiant voice has emerged as a powerful symbol of cultural resistance and women’s continued struggle for their rights in Iran. Her recent musical performance, a bold solo musical act in a caravanserai that was livestreamed and dedicated to the people of Iran, has sparked widespread attention and controversy, shining a spotlight on the enduring struggle of Iranian women against systemic oppression.
On Wednesday night, Ahmadi released a video of her performance, labeled a “hypothetical concert.” She performed without the compulsory hijab and while wearing a dress that revealed her shoulders, an act that defies Iran’s stringent dress code and cultural restrictions that prohibit women from singing solo in public. Alongside musicians Ehsan Biraghdar, Sohail Faghih-Nassiri, Amin Taheri, and Amirali Pirnia, Ahmadi challenged the deeply entrenched norms that have long silenced female artists in the country.
The Iranian judiciary has announced that it will take action against Parastoo Ahmadi for performing music without obtaining the necessary permits and allegedly failing to adhere to “legal and religious regulations.” According to Mizan News Agency, a case has been filed against those involved in the performance, and measures will also be taken against other contributors to the event.
Parastoo Ahmadi’s musical act of defiance took place amid heated debates surrounding the controversial new Hijab bill, which seeks to further entrench restrictions on women’s freedoms. Her choice to perform without wearing the mandatory hijab underscores the growing discontent among Iranian women, who are increasingly rejecting imposed dress codes and broader gender-based limitations. Ahmadi’s performance represents a courageous act of defiance against these regulations, signaling that Iranian women are resolute in their fight for their autonomy and rights. In this concert, she performed several musical pieces, including the renowned “Az Khoon-e Javanan-e Vatan” and “Zemestan.”
Ahmadi, born in Nowshahr in April 1997, first garnered attention during the 2022 protests by performing the iconic anthem “Az Khoon-e Javanan-e Vatan” (From the Blood of the Nation’s Youth) by Aref Qazvini. A graduate of Sura University in directing, Ahmadi’s journey has been marked by years of sharing piano covers and renditions of classic songs on Instagram. Her first professional project was a reinterpretation of the Mazandarani folk song “Aziz Joon” in the summer of 2019, followed by “Heyrani” with poetry by Baba Taher in 2020 and “Lahzeh Didar”, a poem by Mehdi Akhavan-Sales, in 2022.
Her latest performance, titled “Karavansera” has been widely lauded as a cultural protest and a beacon of artistic bravery. In June 2023, she released “Havaye Azadi” (Air of Freedom), a tribute to the “Women, Life, Freedom” movement, with lyrics by poet Fatemeh DoGohrani. However, just months later, she faced legal charges and was summoned to Tehran’s security court. Despite the challenges, Ahmadi’s spirit remains unbroken—her recent release of a song based on a poem by Houshang Ebtehaj is a poignant testament to the resilience of Iranian women.
Ahmadi’s courageous act has sparked heated debates and widespread admiration on social media. Many users hailed her as a voice for a generation breaking the chains of oppression. “Her voice is the voice of a generation that has shattered silence,” wrote one user. Another described her concert as a “cultural resistance against restrictions.”
Rapper Justina, known for her underground protest songs in Iran, applauded Ahmadi’s bravery: “Many of us started singing in Iran because of the courage of women before us, who broke the taboo of female singing under the Islamic Republic in even darker times. It’s magnificent to see this chain continue, breaking even bigger idols.”
Mehdi Yarrahi, another prominent protest singer currently out of prison on bail, expressed his support on social media, writing, “You are a sun that cannot set.”
Ahmadi’s act has drawn attention and comparisons to other Iranian artists who have also used music as a form of protest. Figures like Toomaj Salehi, Mehdi Yarrahi, Shervin Hajipour, Zara Esmaeili, and Saman Yasin have all faced legal repercussions for their work.
The plight of female singers in Iran is emblematic of broader gender discrimination. Women are barred from singing solo publicly, forcing many to abandon their artistic ambitions or leave the country altogether. Last year, singer Niousha Ghorbani of the band “Otagh” was arrested mid-concert in Tehran by intelligence agents. Similarly, in August 2023, young singer Zara Esmaeili was arrested for singing in a public space, and her Instagram account was subsequently blocked by the judiciary.
Ahmadi’s story is a poignant reminder of the power of art in the face of oppression. Her defiance, like that of many Iranian women, reflects an enduring struggle for dignity and freedom. As one social media user aptly noted, “This courage comes at a cost. But the question remains—are we prepared to support her and others like her in their fight for a better future?”
Parastoo Ahmadi’s voice is not just her own; it is the collective cry of a generation challenging the status quo. In a country where silence is often enforced, her music serves as a reminder that art and courage can break through even the most oppressive barriers.
The human rights landscape in Iran continues to oscillate between hope and repression. Recent developments reflect this complex dynamic, combining moments of relief with harrowing reminders of systemic injustice.
A rare glimmer of hope emerged as the Supreme Court of Iran overturned the death sentence of Mojtaba Korkor, who had been accused in the highly contentious case of Kian Pirfalak’s murder. Korkor’s case, steeped in controversy and accusations of judicial overreach, has drawn significant national and international attention with many speculating that Korkor is not the true killer. The court’s decision to send the case for review marks a critical moment in a story that has deeply affected Iranian society.
Korkor, initially accused of murder of the 9 year-old Pirfalak in 2022, faced charges of “waging war against God” and “corruption on earth” after allegations shifted. His family and advocates highlighted procedural flaws and questioned the fairness of the investigation, urgently calling for the identification of their son’s true killer. Korkor’s arrest during the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests further intensified scrutiny, amplifying calls for justice and transparency.
Adding to the moments of hope, Atena Farghadani, a renowned cartoonist and former political prisoner, was released from Evin Prison. Farghadani’s incarceration symbolized the suppression of artistic expression in Iran, stemming from her satirical depictions of government officials and criticism of policies infringing on women’s rights. Her work, which earned her international recognition, including the Courage in Cartooning Award, stands as a testament to the power of art in challenging oppression. Her release, albeit following the completion of her sentence, underscores the ongoing fight for freedom of expression in a society that penalizes dissent.
In stark contrast, the plight of Manouchehr Bakhtiari reveals the persistent cruelty of Iran’s judicial and prison systems. Bakhtiari, a political prisoner and father of Pouya Bakhtiari, a victim of the November 2019 protests, was forcibly returned to prison despite critical health conditions. His wife’s pleas and medical recommendations for rest and care were ignored, raising fears for his life. His advocacy for justice for his son has made him a target of systemic harassment, resulting in multiple incarcerations and severe sentences, including flogging. His suffering embodies the cost of standing against state oppression.
These stories unfold against the backdrop of Iran’s new Hijab laws, which have sparked widespread protests and resistance, as highlighted in previous reports. The overturning of Korkor’s death sentence and Farghadani’s release are victories for justice and artistic freedom, yet they remain exceptions in a landscape dominated by systemic repression.
The intersection of these developments within the broader fight for human rights in Iran underscores the resilience of Iranian citizens in the face of systemic challenges. The debates within President Pezeshkian’s government and the critiques from figures like Zarif highlight a potential shift in strategy as moderates advocate for reforms and possible negotiations with Western powers. This evolving dynamic raises hope that isolated victories could eventually pave the way for a more significant reckoning in Iran’s approach to governance and human rights.
As Iran’s citizens continue to fight for their rights, these stories serve as a powerful reminder of the costs and courage required to challenge systemic oppression. The path forward remains fraught, but the resilience and resistance of the Iranian people shine as a beacon of hope amid adversity.
Air pollution in cities such as Tehran, Ahvaz, and Mahshahr has reached hazardous levels, with the Air Quality Index (AQI) recording values between 152 and 161, indicating a red alert for public health. Videos shared by local news outlets like Mahshahr News vividly depict the grey, suffocating skies that have become a daily reality for residents. Despite the severity of the situation, government officials have failed to present immediate and effective solutions, with one spokesperson stating, “Air pollution is a global problem and a challenge of the century.”
The hazardous conditions have led to the closure of schools in numerous cities, disrupting education across the country. In Khuzestan Province, schools in 17 cities have shifted to online classes, while closures were announced in Isfahan, Tehran, and several other provinces. The situation has also prompted emergency advisories urging citizens, especially vulnerable groups, to limit outdoor activities and use public transportation when necessary.
Despite the visible impact on public life, Tehran schools remain open as authorities await decisions from the emergency pollution committee. However, health experts warn that prolonged exposure to such conditions can have severe consequences, particularly for children and individuals with underlying health issues.
Alarming statistics provided by Iran’s Deputy Health Minister, Alireza Raeisi, shed light on the grave consequences of air pollution. According to Raeisi, air pollution is responsible for an estimated 30,000 to 35,000 deaths annually in Iran, with approximately 7,000 deaths occurring in Tehran alone. The economic cost of pollution-related healthcare is also staggering, with central provinces like Isfahan bearing costs as high as $800 million annually.
Raeisi criticized the reliance on mazut (a low-quality heavy fuel oil) in power plants, describing it as a public health threat. “I would rather sit in darkness than burn mazut to generate electricity,” he said, emphasizing that health should take precedence over energy concerns. Last month, authorities intervened to halt the burning of mazut at certain locations, though this decision was reversed amid heightened demand in the winter months.
Sixty percent of Iran’s air pollution is attributed to motor vehicle emissions, with dust storms further exacerbating the crisis. The persistent use of outdated fuel technologies and insufficient environmental regulations underscore the systemic failures in addressing this pressing issue.
The escalating pollution crisis has overwhelmed Iran’s healthcare system. Babak Yektapour, a spokesperson for the National Emergency Organization, reported a 35% surge in respiratory-related emergencies in Tehran and a staggering 167% increase in industrial cities like Arak. Common symptoms include chest pain, coughing, eye irritation, and fatigue, with long-term exposure posing significant risks to cardiovascular and respiratory health.
The crisis has also disrupted cultural and sports activities, with all football matches in Tehran canceled due to hazardous conditions. The widespread cancellations highlight how air pollution has permeated every aspect of daily life in Iran.
Iran’s air pollution crisis is not merely an environmental issue but a reflection of deeper governance failures. Raeisi lamented the lack of enforcement of the 2017 Clean Air Law, which outlined 174 responsibilities across 23 governmental agencies. Despite its ambitious framework, implementation has been woefully inadequate.
Critics argue that the government’s failure to act decisively stems from prioritizing short-term economic gains over long-term public health. The continued use of mazut in power plants and the absence of robust public transportation initiatives exemplify this mismanagement.
The air pollution crisis intersects with broader systemic issues in Iran, where citizens face limited avenues to advocate for their rights. Much like the women fighting for autonomy and expression, the struggle for clean air reflects a populace increasingly disillusioned with the state’s capacity to ensure basic quality of life.
As grievances against government inaction grow, the crisis could become a catalyst for broader demands for accountability and reform. For now, however, millions of Iranians are left grappling with the immediate health risks and the long-term implications of living under a perpetual cloud of pollution.
The Iranian economy continues to face severe challenges, highlighted by spiraling inflation, energy mismanagement, and a rapidly depreciating national currency. Recent developments paint a grim picture, with President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledging the gravity of the crises in stark terms, while ordinary citizens grapple with skyrocketing prices and dwindling purchasing power.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, who campaigned on promises to address Iran’s economic challenges, recently admitted the extent of the crises gripping the country. Speaking at Tehran University on December 7, 2024, he openly discussed issues ranging from energy inefficiencies to the unresolved Financial Action Task Force (FATF) compliance, warning that without decisive action, Iran could face a gas supply crisis this winter.
In a surprising moment of candor at Sharif University, Pezeshkian stated, “We have problems with electricity, water, oil, gasoline, and money. Whatever we touch, it hurts. Treating a patient requires bitter medicine, and we must confront this reality.”
The president reiterated these concerns during a recent state television interview, emphasizing the country’s “severe imbalances” and warning that failure to address them could lead to unmanageable crises. Despite earlier pledges to resolve international trade limitations, Pezeshkian conceded that issues like FATF compliance remain major obstacles for his administration.
As Pezeshkian delivered his address, reports emerged of a shocking 43% one-day price surge for potatoes, a staple food in Iran. According to Tejarat News, potato prices jumped from 21,000 toman to 30,000 toman in a single day, following similar increases in tomatoes and kiwis.
Experts attribute these price hikes to a combination of currency volatility, rising production costs, reduced supply, and irregular exports. Asadollah Kargar, head of the Fruit and Vegetable Union, cited unregulated exports as a significant factor, warning that continued trends could destabilize agricultural markets and disproportionately impact vulnerable populations.
The inflationary pressure extends far beyond produce. The price of gold has soared alongside the free-market dollar rate, which reached an unprecedented 74,000 toman on December 11, marking a 20% increase within a single week. These developments come in the wake of the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, which has had a ripple effect on Iran’s economy.
The fall of Assad’s regime has coincided with heightened geopolitical tensions, exacerbating Iran’s economic instability. Since early December, the free-market dollar rate has climbed by over 2,000 tomans, driven by a mix of domestic uncertainty and international pressures.
This currency collapse marks one of the sharpest declines since the early 2000s, when the dollar traded at less than 1,000 tomans. Over successive administrations, from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Hassan Rouhani and Ebrahim Raisi, the rial has lost over 70 times its value.
Gold prices have followed suit, with 18-karat gold hitting a record 4,831,300 tomans per gram. The devaluation underscores the fragile state of Iran’s economy, which remains mired in structural inefficiencies and heavily impacted by international sanctions.
Compounding the crisis is Iran’s ongoing energy mismanagement. Pezeshkian warned that inadequate gas supply planning could leave the country vulnerable during the winter months. The continued use of low-quality mazut in power plants has drawn criticism for its health and environmental costs.
Deputy Health Minister Alireza Raeisi highlighted the dire consequences of this practice, stating, “I’d rather sit in darkness than burn mazut to generate electricity.” Raeisi also revealed that air pollution, partly caused by mazut, is responsible for 30,000 to 35,000 deaths annually, with Tehran accounting for 7,000 of these fatalities.
Iran’s economic challenges are multi-faceted and deeply entrenched, spanning currency instability, inflation, energy mismanagement, and international isolation. President Pezeshkian’s rare admission of these issues reflects the growing urgency for structural reform. However, the path forward remains uncertain, as systemic inefficiencies and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh heavily on the nation.
For the Iranian people, the economic crisis is not merely a political talking point but a daily struggle for survival. With inflation eroding incomes and basic goods becoming increasingly unaffordable, the calls for decisive action are growing louder. Whether Pezeshkian’s administration can rise to the occasion remains to be seen, but for now, the challenges ahead seem daunting and unresolved.
|
