North Korea and Russia finalize defense pact as offensive against Kursk looms
North Korea and Russia completed the ratification of their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty in early November. Alongside outlining a broad spectrum of defense cooperation, the treaty includes a commitment to mutual defense if attacked. Some South Korean analysts see the Ukrainian invasion of Russian territory in Kursk Oblast as having prompted North Korea to act, as it could be argued to trigger the mutual defense provision to which they were acceding. However, the Ukrainian move could also merely have provided a pretext for Pyongyang’s aid to Moscow.
Despite speculation about an eventual major increase in North Korean troop levels, perhaps to as many as 100,000 North Korean personnel, the number committed seems to have plateaued for now. Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh stated on November 18 that the U.S. believes that there are around 11,000 North Korean troops in the Kursk region. Some reports have indicated that North Korean soldiers are being integrated to support Russian units but may be of limited utility due to their lack of Russian language training.
The exchange is significantly increasing North Korea’s access to advanced technologies from Russia. South Korean officials have said that North Korea recently received new Russian anti-aircraft systems to which it had not previously had access.
South Korean observers have also expressed concern that the new alliance could embolden Kim Jong-Un over time. This view suggests that as the DPRK amasses additional arms, technology, and money from Russia, Kim is likely to engage in increasingly provocative behavior. Growing support from Moscow could also reduce Pyongyang’s relative dependence on China and weaken Beijing’s ability to discourage provocative behavior.
Nuclear-capable bombers from Russia and China prompt South Korean and Japanese intercepts
Russian and Chinese heavy nuclear-capable bombers conducted two days of joint long-range air patrols on November 29-30, this time over the Sea of Japan/East Sea, prompting both Japan and South Korea to send fighter aircraft to make intercepts. In July, a joint Russian-Chinese bomber patrol flew over waters adjacent to Alaska in the North Pacific and the Arctic, prompting U.S. and Canadian fighter intercepts. Russian and Chinese fighter aircraft and a Chinese electronic intelligence aircraft were involved in some parts of the exercise as well. While the Russian and Chinese aircraft did not violate either South Korea’s or Japan’s airspace, South Korea lodged a diplomatic protest with Moscow about their failure to provide notice of the exercise.
Continuing Russian payment troubles?
Some Chinese companies appear to be facing trade and investment challenges in Russia due to U.S. and EU sanctions that limit their ability to clear transactions. For example, a Chinese television manufacturer has had to close a factory it owns near St. Petersburg due to problems with payments for components. Deprived of access to many of its usual suppliers in Europe, Russian firms have been forced to look to China for alternatives, while Chinese companies face no such pressure to seek Russian sourcing amid the payment difficulties. This is clearly giving China the upper hand in the economic relationship.
Trump advisor says U.S. to open dialogue with China about Iranian oil
Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), who has been tapped by president-elect Trump as his new National Security Advisor, used surprisingly conciliatory language toward China when he was asked during a CNBC interview on November 27 about how the U.S. would tighten sanctions on Iran. None of this walked back what incoming administration figures have said about a return to “maximum pressure” on Iran. That said, acknowledging the need to open a dialogue with China beforehand could blunt some of the impact on Chinese oil majors and banks if China is willing to compromise. Most oil analysts expect Iranian exports to fall significantly, but not to anywhere near zero, as the U.S. tightens sanctions enforcement. China may aim to use Iranian crude only in independent “teapot” refineries again, with minor banks handling the transactions in yuan, where the trade has expanded a bit beyond that during the recent period, when the Biden administration has soft-pedaled enforcement.
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