New York by the Numbers
Monthly Economic and Fiscal Outlook
No. 96 - December 10, 2024
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Photo Credit: Gorodenkoff on Shutterstock
A Message from the Comptroller
Dear New Yorkers,
As we approach the holidays, there are some encouraging numbers in the data. Job growth nationwide picked up in November. While local numbers are flatter, jobs are growing here as well. And there’s some reason to believe this growth, while modest, is broader-based—somewhat less concentrated in health care and social assistance—than it has appeared. Nearly 60% of adults New Yorkers are working, reflecting record high labor force participation.
Tourism has continued to strengthen. Broadway theatre attendance and hotel occupancy rates both reached post-pandemic highs in recent weeks. Meanwhile, office rents, vacancies, attendance, and transit ridership continue to indicate that New York City’s commercial real estate sector has bottomed and begun to recover.
On the other hand, some big clouds loom on the horizon—and one of the biggest is the potential for large federal budget cuts. As we outlined last month in Protecting New York City [[link removed]] , the incoming Trump administration poses many risks. In this month’s Spotlight [[link removed]] , we offer a deeper dive into the ways federal funding serves New Yorkers. Over $100 billion flows from Washington to New York City. While a chunk flows to the City’s operating budget ($9.6 billion), entities like NYCHA and H+H ($4.5 billion), and our capital budget ($2.6 billion), the vast majority goes directly to individuals for income security programs like Social Security ($25 billion) and Medicare ($22 billion).
We can’t predict what will happen, of course. Trump promised during the campaign not to cut entitlements like Social Security and Medicare—so there is certainly reason to be concerned that the enormous cuts (nearly one-third of the federal budget) that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have promised to make will hit the aid that comes directly to cities and states.
New Yorkers are not helpless, though. Last month, we convened civic, business, labor, religious, and community leaders to discuss how we can best prepare to protect New York City and those who may be targeted by the policies of the incoming Trump Administration.
It’s important to remember, as analysis by New York State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli shows, that the money that New Yorkers send to Washington in taxes usually exceeds what we collectively receive back in benefits. We’ll be keeping an eye on that balance. It continues to be our tax dollars, our democracy, and our future that are at stake.
With clear eyes on the promising signs, and the frightening ones,
[[link removed]]
Brad Lander
Table of Contents
* The U.S. Economy [[link removed]]
* New York City Economy [[link removed]]
* City Finances [[link removed]]
Highlights
* U.S. job growth picked back up in November, after a hurricane-driven pause in October; but the underlying pace of job creation appears to have slowed somewhat. The U.S. unemployment rate edged up and labor force participation edged down.
* Year to date, outside of the Health & Social Assistance sector, NYC has seen little or no net job creation. However, incoming data suggest that this trend will be revised up modestly when annual benchmark revisions are released in March 2025.


* On a more positive note, a near-record 59.4% of New York City’s adult residents were employed in October, reflecting low unemployment and record high labor force participation.


* A variety of indicators—office rents and vacancies, office attendance, and transit ridership—increasingly reinforce the premise that New York City’s commercial real estate sector has bottomed and begun to recover.


* Tourism has continued to strengthen, as indicated by hotel occupancy rates and Broadway theatre attendance; both reached post-pandemic highs in recent weeks.


* The number of asylum-seekers in City shelters continued to trend down in November, while the number of people in shelter who are not asylum-seekers continued to rise. The decline in NYC Shelter entrants is consistent with, and likely related to, the decline in southern U.S. border encounters since June.


* NYC personal income (PIT and PTET) revenues in FY 2025 through October are growing robustly and are almost exactly as expected in the budget adopted in June, and current cash balances are only slightly below record high cash balances reached last year.
View the November Newsletter [[link removed]]
Spotlight
NYC’s Federal Funding: Outlook Under Trump
Last month, this Office released Protecting New York City [[link removed]] , a report that offered a broad assessment of the potential threats posed by the incoming Trump administration. Here, we offer a deeper dive into the many ways that federally-funded programs serve New Yorkers, and the risks this funding could face.
View the Spotlight [[link removed]]
In Case You Missed It
Over the past month, the Office of Comptroller released the following announcements on the state of NYC’s economy and finances:
1. New York City Cash Balance Projection [[link removed]]
2. New York City Quarterly Cash Report [[link removed]]
3. NEW AUDIT: NYC Comptroller Lander Releases Audit on Foster Care Safety Oversight by Administration for Children’s Services [[link removed]]
4. Annual report on Capital Debt & Obligations for FY 2025 [[link removed]]
5. NYC Pension Investments with MWBE Asset Managers Reach Record of $23.1 Billion for FY 24 [[link removed]]
6. Popular Annual Financial Report for FY 24 [[link removed]]
7. NEW AUDIT: New York City Housing Authority’s Monitoring of Contractor Repairs [[link removed]] .
A new case study [[link removed]] from Work for America and the 5BORO Institute explores how the Comptroller’s Agency Staffing Dashboard [[link removed]] can and should be a model for cities nationwide.
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Office of the New York City Comptroller
Office of New York City Comptroller Brad Lander
1 Centre Street
New York, NY 10007
United States
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