Assad Falls

Q. A rebel coalition has taken over large swaths of Syrian territory including the capital, Damascus. The rebels are mainly Islamist and are backed by Turkey. President Bashar Assad has fled and the Syrian army has collapsed. Iranian and Russian allied forces have abandoned the regime. What does this mean for Israel, the region, and the world?

A. Once again, and not surprisingly, events are not unfolding as expected in the Middle East. Israel’s battlefield achievements in Lebanon and against Iran appear to have ended up, in neighboring Syria, weakening some actors and empowering others in a manner anticipated by almost none.

This is a major strategic and intelligence surprise on all fronts--for all parties, Israel included, with the sole exception of Turkiye. One obvious interim conclusion at the intelligence level is that the degree of Syrian military dependency on Iranian, Hezbollah and Russian forces, meaning the inherent weakness of the Assad regime, was vastly underestimated by not only Israel but practically everyone else.

The rebels are led by Hayat Tahrir a-Sham, an offshoot of al-Qaeda that survived the years since the Qaeda defeat in Iraq and Syria by sheltering in the northwest corner of Syria under the auspices of Turkiye, which is led by the Erdogan government with its Islamist leanings. But the rebel coalition includes non-Islamist Arabs as well as non-Arabs: Kurds and Druze.

The dust has not even begun to settle yet, so this is a very preliminary assessment of the strategic consequences for Israel and for additional regional and global actors.

Q. Let’s start with the Israel-Hezbollah-Syria-Iran dynamic . . .

A. In the course of recent months, Israel inflicted heavy losses on Hezbollah as well as its patron, Iran. This had the effect of weakening the Assad regime in Syria, which Iran and Hezbollah had been supporting in its conflicts with Syrian Islamists and Kurds. And while Bashar Assad was no friend of Israel and the Iranian and Iranian-proxy presence in Syria was seen as a threat, the specter of resurgent Islamists setting up shop in Damascus is hardly welcomed by Jerusalem.

Under prevailing geostrategic circumstances, there is no ideal neighbor for Israel across the Golan border with Syria. Israel confronts the reality of its battlefield accomplishments in southern Lebanon contributing to a dangerous destabilization in Syria and a possible Islamist threat on Israel’s northern border with Syria. This is particularly worrisome insofar as those same battlefield accomplishments against Hezbollah will not necessarily lead to a stable ceasefire on the northern border with Lebanon.

Not necessarily, yet with Hezbollah weakened and no longer supported by an Iranian arms pipeline via Syria, the balance of power within Lebanon is changing. Admittedly, Lebanon is a largely dysfunctional state. But if relatively moderate Lebanese actors--Christians, Sunni Muslims, Druze, moderate Shiites--now even begin to get their political act together, Israel may be able to contemplate a more tranquil Lebanon border and even genuine cooperation in the maritime gas sector.

On the other hand, a resurgent Sunni Islamist Syria could seek to empower Lebanon’s Sunnis or to reassert hegemony in Lebanon. In other words, too many options are opening up to be able to project the future course of Syrian-Lebanese and Israeli-Lebanese relations.

At the very least, a million Syrian refugees in Lebanon, a similar number in Jordan, and several million in Turkiye--another Erdogan concern--may now go home. On the eve of this revolution, roughly a third of all Syrians were refugees or internally displaced.

2. Letters
3. Hearings
4. Selected Members on the Record
5. Selected Media & Press releases/Statements

1. Bills & Resolutions

Introduced

(PUNISH UNIVERSITIES THAT BOYCOTT ISRAEL) HR 10257: Introduced 11/26/24 by Foxx (R-NC) and Gottheimer (D-NJ), “To amend the Higher Education Act of 1965 to prohibit an institution that participates in a nonexpressive commercial boycott of Israel from being eligible for certain funds under that Act.“ Referred to the House Committee on Education and the Workforce. Also see: press release 11/26/24: Foxx, Gottheimer: No Federal Student Aid for Colleges Who Boycott, Divest from Israel [bill text]; ‘Enough is Enough’: Foxx Introduces Bipartisan Bill Prohibiting Aid to Universities That Boycott Israel (Free Beacon 11/26/24); Lawmakers want to yank federal financial aid from colleges that divest from Israel (USA Today 11/26/24); US Lawmakers Introduce Bipartisan Bill to Strip Funding From Universities That Boycott Israel (Algemeiner 11/26/24)
(ANTI-SLAPP LEGISLATION) HR 10310 /S. 5438: Introduced 12/5/24 by Raskin (D-MD) and Kiley (R-CA) in the House, and Wyden (D-OR) in the Senate, “To amend title 28, United States Code, to establish a procedure to dismiss and deter strategic lawsuits against public participation, and for other purposes,” aka, the “Free Speech Protection Act.” Referred to the House Committee on the Judiciary and Senate Committee on the Judiciary. Also see: Raskin, Wyden, Kiley Introduce Bipartisan Legislation Promoting Free Speech, Cracking Down on Frivolous “Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation” [bill text]. Endorsed by: American Booksellers for Free Expression; American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU); American Society for Collective Rights Licensing (ASCRL); Association of American Publishers; Authors Guild; California Anti-SLAPP Project; Center for Democracy & Technology; Committee to Protect Journalists; Earthjustice Action; EarthRights International; Electronic Frontier Foundation; First Amendment Foundation; Freedom of the Press Foundation; Greenpeace USA; Institute for Free Speech; International Corporate Accountability Roundtable (ICAR); Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University; Know Your IX, a project of Advocates for Youth; National Press Club; National Press Club Journalism Institute; National Press Club Press Freedom Committee; National Press Photographers Association (NPPA); National Women’s Law Center; News/Media Alliance; No Business With Genocide; PEN America; Public Participation Project; Reporters Without Borders; Society of Composers & Lyricists (SCL); Society of Professional Journalists; Songwriters Guild of America (SGA); Student Press Law Center.
(US MUST USE BIBLICAL NAMES FOR LAND THE BIBLE SAYS BELONGS TO ISRAEL) S. 5431 [bill text]: Introduced 12/5/24 by Cotton (R-AR), “A bill to prohibit the use of materials that use the term ‘West Bank’, and for other purposes,” aka, “Retiring the Egregious Confusion Over the Genuine Name of Israel’s Zone of Influence by Necessitating Government-use of Judea and Samaria Act” aka the “RECOGNIZING Judea and Samaria Act”. Referred to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. Referred to the Committee on Foreign Relations. Also see: Cotton Introduces Legislation to Eliminate Federal Use of the Term “West Bank”; Cotton X-post – “Referring to Judea and Samaria as the ‘West Bank’ is a slap in the face to historical truth. It’s time to call this region by its rightful name and stop playing into anti-Israel propaganda.” NOTE: This bill was previously introduced in the House on 3/5/24 by Tenney (R-NY) and 2 Republican cosponsors (HR 7552). It has gone nowhere in the House and not attracted a single additional cosponsor since it was introduced. As noted in the Round-Up at that time, the bill raises the question: in this era of rising evangelical Christian political power, will there be legislation requiring that US laws/documents/statements refer to other areas of the Middle East by their biblical names? And also worth noting – Cotton’s bill and HR 7552, in substance, are both Greater Israel bills, in effect making it US policy to define Israel as spanning from the river to the sea. Notably, while both the Cotton bill and HR 7552 explicitly seek to compel the use of the terms “Judea and Samaria” to refer to the entire West Bank, the bills’ text specifies that it is referring to land “annexed by Israel from Jordan during the 1967 Six-Day War.” Which suggests either (a) very sloppy drafting on the part of whomever wrote the bill, (b) that Cotton and Tenney intend the word “annex” in a sense other than the legal one (since as of this writing Israel has not moved to formally annex any of the West Bank other than East Jerusalem and its West Bank environs; or (c) that the drafters of this bill are intentionally seeking to have the US formally recognize West Bank annexation by Israel in advance of – and in fact, irrespective of – a formal declaration of annexation by Israel. Also see: Cotton introduces bill to ban federal use of the term ‘West Bank’ (Jewish News Syndicate 12/5/24)
(TARGETING IRAN ACTIONS IN THE US) S. 5398 / HR 10256 [one-pager on the bill]: Introduced 11/21/24 in the Senate by Hassan (D-NH) and Ernst (R-IA), and 11/22/24 in the House by Wagner (R-MO) and 4 bipartisan cosponsors, “To authorize sentencing enhancements for certain criminal offenses directed by or coordinated with foreign governments,” aka the “Deterring External Threats and Ensuring Robust
Responses to Egregious and Nefarious Criminal Endeavors Act (DETERRENCE Act).” Referred to the House and Senate Judiciary Committees. Also see: Hassan press release – Senators Hassan, Ernst Introduce Bipartisan, Bicameral Legislation to Strengthen Criminal Penalties for Violent Crimes Directed by Foreign Adversaries; Wagner press release –Wagner, Colleagues Introduce Bipartisan, Bicameral DETERRENCE Act; Jewish Insider 11/25/24: Bipartisan, bicameral bill aims to crack down on Iranian criminal activity in the U.S.

Assad Falls

2. Letters 3. Hearings 4. Selected Members on the Record 5. Selected Media & Press releases/Statements

1. Bills & Resolutions

2. Letters
3. Hearings
4. Selected Members on the Record
5. Selected Media & Press releases/Statements