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Afternoon Edition

December 9, 2024

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Juan Soto’s $765 million contract with the Mets has reverberated across the sports world, and it will have wide effects across this MLB offseason. In that way, it mirrors another historic deal: Alex Rodriguez’s 10-year, $252 million Rangers contract, signed 24 years ago at the same hotel and with the same agent. We examine the similarities and the events that could follow based on that precedent.

— Eric Fisher [[link removed]], David Rumsey [[link removed]], and Colin Salao [[link removed]]

Soto Contract Echoes 2000 A-Rod Deal. Could Similar Fallout Follow? [[link removed]]

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Baseball history doesn’t necessarily repeat, but it certainly rhymes, and the record-breaking $765 million free-agent contract for Juan Soto [[link removed]] is poised to create massive fallout across the sport—just as a similarly historic deal for Alex Rodriguez did more than a generation ago.

In late 2000, Rodriguez signed a 10-year, $252 million deal with the Rangers, with the then-unprecedented deal being completed at the same MLB winter meetings hotel in Dallas and with the same agent, Scott Boras, as Soto’s new deal with the Mets.

The Rodriguez deal was the highlight of a frenetic set of winter meetings that year with nearly $800 million in total player guarantees made in just a few days. The fallout from the financial largess, however, was often ugly—particularly in Texas. With Rodriguez, the Rangers suffered three straight losing seasons, as they were unable to build fully around the star shortstop, before trading him to the Yankees in early 2004, while he also later admitted to using performance-enhancing drugs during this period. By 2010, the entire Rangers franchise was sold in bankruptcy court.

MLB, meanwhile, suffered both internal and external strife as a result of the Rodriguez deal. The league went through a bruising round of labor negotiations in 2002 with the MLB Players Association, narrowly averting a work stoppage with a last-minute agreement that, among other measures, reinstated the league’s luxury tax. Many small-market team owners decried the Rodriguez deal and the growing economic disparity in the sport, and after experimenting with various formulas, MLB in 2002 also introduced a straight-pool revenue-sharing system in which each team contributed 34% of its local revenue to the pool.

Many of the reforms ultimately were helpful, though, as MLB is now enjoying unrivaled competitive parity in major U.S. pro sports with no team winning a repeat World Series title since 2000.

Back to the Future

The Soto deal threatens to bring many of those same conflicts back to the surface. Already, the league went through a 99-day lockout before reaching the 2022 labor deal with the players, and many of the sport’s large-scale economic issues are still decidedly unsettled—particularly as the local media industry continues to experience major disruption [[link removed]].

The current collective bargaining agreement with the players expires after the 2026 season. Already, expectations have been heavy for another complex and potentially combative round of talks—particularly as the sport’s revenue flow, though growing in the aggregate to more than $11 billion annually, is changing at an accelerating pace.

The 15-year term of the Soto deal with the Mets, also establishing a league record for its duration, will theoretically cover multiple contract periods with the MLB Players Association, a new set of national TV deals following the current ones expiring in 2028, and perhaps, an eventual reformation of that now-challenged local media landscape.

The Mets, meanwhile, could still end up with a smaller 2025 payroll than in 2024, even with the historic addition of Soto. The team currently has about $249 million in salary commitments for next year [[link removed]]. Even with numerous roster decisions unresolved, that figure is nearly $100 million less than the team’s spending this year, thanks to numerous obligations newly coming off its books, including traded pitchers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer [[link removed]] and free agents such as first baseman Pete Alonso and pitcher Luis Severino, who recently signed with the A’s [[link removed]].

There are still some other notable commitments in place for the Mets, however, including the restructured deferral payments for the long-retired Bobby Bonilla that will continue until 2035 [[link removed]]—just four years before the end of Soto’s deal.

Soto Sets MLB Pay Record

FOS graphic

Juan Soto’s total contract with the Mets is the largest in MLB history—and all of professional sports. In terms of average annual value (AAV), it is, on paper, less than the $70 million per year Shohei Ohtani signed with the Dodgers [[link removed]] last summer. However, because of the deferrals on Ohtani’s deal, the adjusted AAV on his deal is $46 million per year, which makes Soto’s $51 million per year the highest in MLB.

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CFP Era Redefines Bowl Season: Tradition Meets Transformation [[link removed]]

Brett Davis-Imagn Images

While the fallout from the much-debated reveal of the first 12-team College Football Playoff [[link removed]] continues, a new era for the sport’s traditional postseason bowl games is set to begin.

For the first time, the New Year’s Six bowl games—the most well-known contests each year—will all be part of the CFP.

After first-round games are played on campuses, the four quarterfinal matchups will play out at the Fiesta, Peach, Rose, and Sugar bowls. The winners of those games will then square off in the semifinals at the Orange and Cotton bowls. In future years, which bowl games host quarterfinal matchups and which ones host semifinals will rotate.

While that’s great for those historic bowl games, what does the new move mean for the others? Bowl Season executive director Nick Carparelli, whose organization oversees the scheduling of bowl games, previously told Front Office Sports that he would like to see all CFP matchups played at neutral-site bowl games [[link removed]]—including first-round games.

After the CFP bracket was announced Sunday, so were matchups for the other 36 non-Playoff bowl games to be played out during December and early January.

Winning Mentality

In addition to the CFP, Disney’s networks annually broadcast the majority of bowl games. This year, they’ll benefit from two matchups in particular that include teams with something left to prove on the field.

The Reliaquest Bowl in Tampa on Dec. 31 will pit Alabama (9–3), the first team left out of the CFP [[link removed]], against Michigan (7–5) on ESPN. The Crimson Tide were at the center of debate after SMU (11–2) made things complicated by losing the ACC championship, giving Clemson (10–3) an automatic Playoff berth. Alabama’s exclusion gave the Big Ten a 4–3 edge over the SEC as the conference with the most CFP bids [[link removed]].

On Dec. 28, ABC will broadcast Deion Sanders’s first bowl game as a head coach when Colorado (9–3) takes on Big 12 rival BYU (10–2) in the Valero Alamo Bowl in San Antonio. The Buffaloes narrowly missed out on a Hollywood-esque, and potentially extremely lucrative, run to the CFP [[link removed]].

What’s in a Name?

Not every bowl features as intriguing matchups on the field, but for some games, the title sponsors end up being the stars of the show, anyway.

In 2023, snack brands were the big winners as over-the-top efforts generated tens of millions of dollars in marketing [[link removed]] for bowl game sponsors.

This year, several of those wacky sponsors are back for more:

Pop-Tarts Bowl, Dec. 28: Iowa State (10–3) vs. Miami (10–2) Cheez-It Citrus Bowl, Dec. 31: South Carolina (9–3) vs. Illinois (9–3) Duke’s Mayo Bowl, Jan. 3: Minnesota (7–5) vs. Virginia Tech (6–6)

Other bowl game names drawing attention include the Art of Sport LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk, the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl, and the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl, among others.

Amazon Breaks NFL Streaming Record (Again) With ‘TNF’ Ratings [[link removed]]

Detroit Free Press

Amazon Prime Video has broken its own NFL streaming record for Thursday Night Football ratings—again.

Last week’s matchup, which saw the Lions defeat the NFC North rival Packers for the second time this season 34–31 on a last-second field goal, drew an average of 17.29 million viewers, according to Nielsen.

That figure breaks the record set during the Week 4 Cowboys-Giants TNF game. That stream drew 16.22 million viewers [[link removed]], per Nielsen’s panel-only measurement, which is the current industry standard. Its final viewership estimate, when including “big data” figures, was 17.61 million. An update to Packers-Lions, scheduled to be released Tuesday, is expected to surpass that final Cowboys-Giants number.

Through 12 games of the 2024 NFL regular season, TNF is averaging 13.61 million viewers on Prime Video, which is 9% higher than ratings through this same point last season, and continues a record pace for the streamer [[link removed]].

Green Bay–Detroit marks the second straight record TV number involving the Lions, who drew the largest early afternoon Thanksgiving Day audience [[link removed]] on record, 37.4 million viewers on CBS, for their dramatic 23–20 victory over the Bears during the 12:30 p.m. ET time slot.

Despite not getting to broadcast any ratings-magnet Thanksgiving NFL games, Amazon was able to cash in on its second annual Black Friday game, as the Raiders-Chiefs matchup saw a 41% ratings increase [[link removed]] over last year’s Jets-Dolphins game, drawing 13.51 million viewers on the holiday weekend.

STATUS REPORT Two Up, One Down, One Push

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Bill Belichick ⬆⬇ The six-time Super Bowl–winning head coach confirmed he’s talked to UNC about its open football job. “We’ve had a couple good conversations,” Belichick said Monday [[link removed]] during his weekly appearance on The Pat McAfee Show. Belichick laid out how he would approach coaching in college, saying he would create “an NFL program.” However, ProFootballTalk reported Belichick is “surprised” he has not heard from any of the three NFL teams [[link removed]] with coaching vacancies. On Fox’s NFL pregame show Sunday [[link removed]], Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, and Rob Gronkowski all said they could not see Belichick coaching in college.

Michigan ⬆ Class of 2025 quarterback and three-star recruit [[link removed]] Chase Herbstreit, the son of ESPN analyst and former Ohio State quarterback Kirk Herbstreit, has committed to the Wolverines [[link removed]]. QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 recruit in the class, also committed to Michigan in recent weeks, with FOS reporting that Oracle founder Larry Ellison was instrumental in securing a historic NIL deal [[link removed]] that brought Underwood to Ann Arbor.

Scottie Scheffler ⬆ The PGA Tour’s 2024 FedExCup champion added a ninth trophy to his record year, after winning the Tiger Woods–hosted Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas over the weekend. Scheffler took home a $1 million first-place prize, to add to the $62 million he’s won on the PGA Tour this past season [[link removed]].

Conference championship games ⬇ Several Power 4 title matchups had lower attendance numbers [[link removed]] than they annually do, including the Big 12, SEC, and Big Ten.

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Conversation Starters Arizona State football coach Kenny Dillingham received a $395,000 bonus for winning the Big 12 conference title—the most of any conference-winning coach. Take a look [[link removed]] at the other payouts. Lewis Hamilton capped off his 12-year run with Mercedes by doing some donuts following the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. The seven-time world champion will join Ferrari next year. Check it out [[link removed]]. Oklahoma State and its head football coach, Mike Gundy, are in a standoff after the school offered him a reduced contract [[link removed]] to shift some of his salary to NIL (name, image, and likeness) deals, according to On3. Editors’ Picks Sens. Say DraftKings, FanDuel May Have Conspired to Crush Competition: ‘One Company’ [[link removed]]by Margaret Fleming [[link removed]]The senators asked the FTC and DOJ to investigate the gambling companies. Jay-Z’s Attorney Calls Sexual Assault Lawsuit a ‘Campaign of Extortion’ [[link removed]]by A.J. Perez [[link removed]]The lawsuit was originally filed against Sean Combs in October. A Jets–Aaron Rodgers Divorce Could Get Expensive [[link removed]]by Margaret Fleming [[link removed]]The Jets could end up with $49 million or more in dead money. Advertise [[link removed]] Awards [[link removed]] Learning [[link removed]] Events [[link removed]] Video [[link removed]] Podcast [[link removed]] Written by Eric Fisher [[link removed]], David Rumsey [[link removed]], Colin Salao [[link removed]] Edited by Matthew Tabeek [[link removed]], Or Moyal [[link removed]], Catherine Chen [[link removed]]

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