“Syrians awakened on Monday to a hopeful if uncertain future, after rebels
seized the capital Damascus and President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia,
following 13 years of civil war and more than 50 years of his family's brutal
rule. With a curfew declared by the rebels, Damascus was calm after dawn, with
shops closed and streets largely empty. Most of those out were rebels, and many
cars bore licence plates from Idlib, the northwestern province from which the
fighters launched their lightning advance just 12 days ago. Firdous Omar, from
Idlib, among a group of fighters in central Umayyad Square, said he had been
battling the Assad regime since 2011 and was now looking forward to laying down
his weapon and returning to his job as a farmer.”











<[link removed]>
<[link removed]>
<[link removed]>
<[link removed]>



Eye on Extremism



December 9, 2024



Reuters: With Assad Gone, New Era Starts In Syria As The World Watches
<[link removed]>



“Syrians awakened on Monday to a hopeful if uncertain future, after rebels
seized the capital Damascus and President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia,
following 13 years of civil war and more than 50 years of his family's brutal
rule. With a curfew declared by the rebels, Damascus was calm after dawn, with
shops closed and streets largely empty. Most of those out were rebels, and many
cars bore licence plates from Idlib, the northwestern province from which the
fighters launched their lightning advance just 12 days ago. Firdous Omar, from
Idlib, among a group of fighters in central Umayyad Square, said he had been
battling the Assad regime since 2011 and was now looking forward to laying down
his weapon and returning to his job as a farmer.”



The Washington Post: Biden Officials Race To Help Stabilize Syria After Regime
Collapse
<[link removed]>



“The Biden administration raced Sunday to try to help stabilize Syria after
the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, targeting the Islamic State
with dozens of airstrikes and monitoring Syrian stockpiles of chemical weapons.
President Joe Biden announced that U.S. forces had hit Islamic State camps and
operatives in Syria, and said that the United States was working with its
partners to address concerns that extremist groups could capitalize on the
power vacuum left by Assad’s departure to Russia. “We’re clear-eyed about the
fact that ISIS will try to take advantage of any vacuum to reestablish its
capabilities to create a safe haven,” Biden said, speaking from the Roosevelt
Room. “We will not let that happen.””




CEP Expert Analysis

*
ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency In October 2024
<[link removed]>

*
ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency In September 2024
<[link removed]>

*
CEP Report: Civilian Counterterrorism Militias Take Action, Introduce New
Challenges to Combatting Violent Extremism in Africa
<[link removed]>

*
CEP Policy Brief: Identifying and Disrupting Key Antisemitic Actors
<[link removed]>

*
Extremist Content Online: Extreme Right Celebrates Anti-Muslim Immigration
Riots on Telegram and X
<[link removed]>




CEP Mentions



UnHerd: Are Teenage Terrorists Really On The Rise?
<[link removed]>



“This week, newly-released Prevent statistics showed that a record 44% of
those referred to the anti-radicalisation scheme in the last year were aged
under 15. At the same time, Counter Terrorism Police published a joint paper
between the Five Eyes Alliance of the UK, USA, Canada, Australia, and New
Zealand, warning of the “imminent threat to national security” posed by
terrorist minors. In subsequent reporting, the two developments have been
closely linked — and no doubt the publication of both on the same day was
intentional — but the Prevent referral statistics do not support the argument
of a teenage terror threat.”



UnHerd: Britain’s Prisons Crisis Goes Deeper Than Starmer Realises
<[link removed]>



“Thanks to a new National Audit Office report on jail capacity, we now know
that prison is awful — but there’s also not enough of it. This paradox sits at
the heart of the present overcrowding crisis. The report highlights that the
current prison expansion plans are insufficient to meet future demand,
projecting a shortage of 12,400 prison places by the end of 2027. The
Government’s commitment to provide 20,000 new prison places is significantly
delayed and over budget, with completion now expected to take a decade. Let’s
not forget that the absurdly optimistic forecasting, brought to you by the
Ministry of Justice and His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service, has
resulted in the emergency release of thousands of dangerous prisoners.”



Conservative Home: Ian Acheson: Challenging Labour On Criminal Justice Means
Admitting To Fourteen Years Of Destruction
<[link removed]>



“The news agenda has been quite chewy of late, so not many people will have
noticed the publication of The Home Detention Curfew and Requisite and Minimum
Custodial Periods (Amendment) Order 2024, slipped out last month. Statutory
Orders can be made through delegated authority from primary legislation. What
this means with this draft order is that from July next year, the length of
time a prisoner is eligible to be released on electronic monitoring before the
end of his sentence is doubled from a maximum of 6 months out to a maximum of a
year, without the faff of any further debate in Parliament. So what? Well,
electronic monitoring or tagging has been used since the late 1990s. It is
deployed mainly to manage risky prisoners released on different forms of
licence by applying an ankle tag which offenders must wear continuously as a
condition of continuing release from jail.”



Spiked: How Usman Khan Slipped Through The Net
<[link removed]>



“Five years ago, convicted terrorist Usman Khan murdered two young people at
an event hosted by the prisoner-rehabilitation scheme, Learning Together, at
London Bridge. Saskia Jones and Jack Merritt were both involved in running
Learning Together, which was part of the University of Cambridge. They were
stabbed to death on 29 November 2019 by the 28-year-old Khan, who was
supposedly on community supervision nearly a year after being released from HMP
Whitemoor. Khan had taken part in previous publicity for Learning Together,
which showcased him as a reformed character, moving on from his terrorist
lifestyle. He had been sentenced to prison indefinitely in 2012 for planning a
terrorist bomb attack on the London Stock exchange with a group of nine
extremists.”



Deutsche Welle: Syrian Rebels Declare Damascus ‘Free From Assad’
<[link removed]>



“The regime of President Bashar al-Assad has collapsed after a lightning
rebel offensive that began less than two weeks ago. The alliance of opposition
groups is led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Hans-Jakob Schindler of the
Counter Extremism Project talked to DW about support for the rebels among the
Syrian public.”



Forskning.no: Who Are The Rebels Controlling Syria?
<[link removed]>



“The rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which spearheaded the lightning
offensive against the capital, is an Islamist movement that has controlled
Syria's northwestern areas for several years… Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of
the international research institute Counter Extremism Project (CEP), believes
that there is no reason to remove the blacklist. "If you have to ask permission
from al-Qaeda's leadership before breaking ties with al-Qaeda, the sincerity of
the ideological reorientation is questionable," he told AFP. – There is
absolutely no doubt that they should still be listed as a terrorist group, he
claims.”



Modern Ghana: Who Is The Leader Of Syrian Islamist Group HTS, And How Is The
Region Reacting To Assad's Downfall?
<[link removed]>



“The Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, led by Abu Mohammad
al-Jolani, has toppled the regime of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad. The
group insists it has renounced its ties to al-Qaeda and that it will respect
pluralism and the rights of minorities. Since the downfall of Assad's regime,
the Syrian President has reportedly fled the country and been granted asylum in
Russia. Meanwhile Israel has seized a buffer zone in the Syrian-controlled area
of the Golan Heights… Hans-Jakob Schindler, Senior Director at the Counter
Extremism Project, on Syrian Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.”



United States



Politico: US Pounds ISIS Camps In Syria After Assad Flees
<[link removed]>



“The U.S. carried out a major round of airstrikes on Islamic State targets on
Sunday, and warned the terror group against trying to regain strength in the
country after rebels took over the government. The operation included “dozens”
of airstrikes on over 75 targets involving ISIS operatives and camps using B-52
bombers, F-15 fighter jets and A-10 close-air support attack aircraft “to
ensure that ISIS does not seek to take advantage of the current situation to
reconstitute in central Syria,” according to a statement from U.S. Central
Command. “There should be no doubt — we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and
take advantage of the current situation in Syria,” said Central Command chief
Gen. Erik Kurilla, “All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold
them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way.””



The Guardian: Trump Pick A Threat To US Military’s Counter-Extremism Effort,
Experts Warn
<[link removed]>



“Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump’s embattled choice for secretary of defense, will
struggle to handle the serious problem of extremism in the US military due to
his own far-right political views, experts in the subject have warned. “I think
it’s going to be an absolute disaster,” said Kristofer Goldsmith, an Iraq war
veteran and the CEO of nonprofit watchdog Task Force Butler. “Pete Hegseth is a
domestic extremist.” One of president Joe Biden’s earliest policy initiatives
was tackling extremism among government workers, including soldiers in the
military. Fresh off January 6, when scores of active duty or former US
servicemen were caught participating in trying to overthrow the Capitol,
current secretary of defense Loyd Austin issued a historic “stand-down order”
in February 2021, demanding all servicemen in every branch of the military
reflect on the issue of extremism.”



Syria



Politico: Israeli Military Enters Golan Heights As Netanyahu Warns Off Syrian
Militants
<[link removed]>



“Israel’s military entered a demilitarized buffer zone in the
Syrian-controlled Golan Heights on Sunday aiming to head off any threat from
the insurgency that has toppled Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu stated. “We will not allow any hostile force to establish
itself on our border,” Netanyahu said. Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the main
Syrian armed opposition group under the command of Abu Mohammad Jolani — who
has family roots in the Golan Heights — overran Damascus early Sunday as Assad
fled to Russia. HTS emerged from a former al-Qaida affiliate, and while Jolani
has distanced himself from the terrorist group and projects modernity, Israel
remains on high alert for threats to its security emerging from the chaos in
Syria.”



Iran



Reuters: Exclusive: Iran In Direct Contact With Groups In Syria's New
Leadership, Iranian Official Says
<[link removed]>



“Iran has opened a direct line of communication with rebels in Syria's new
leadership since its ally Bashar al-Assad was ousted, a senior Iranian official
told Reuters on Monday, in an attempt to "prevent a hostile trajectory" between
the countries. The lightning advance of a militia alliance spearheaded by Hayat
Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, marked one of the biggest turning
points for the Middle East in generations. Assad's fall as president removed a
bastion from which Iran and Russia exercised influence across the Arab world.
Hours after Assad's fall, Iran said it expected relations with Damascus to
continue based on the two countries' "far-sighted and wise approach" and called
for the establishment of an inclusive government representing all segments of
Syrian society.”



Afghanistan



Forbes: Taliban Targeting The Hazara In Afghanistan Yet Again
<[link removed]>



“In November 2024, the Guardian, the Centre for Information Resilience’s
Afghan Witness project, Lighthouse Reports and the Afghan news outlets Zan
Times and Etilaat Roz published the findings of their investigation into the
Taliban’s “regeneration program” across Kabul. According to the report, the
Taliban began the “redevelopment” in Kabul soon after returning to power in
August 2021 and continues to this day. Their analysis of satellite imagery
revealed that 1.56 sq km (385 acres) of the city was flattened. While the
Taliban claim that such demolitions were part of the “regeneration program” of
the area, it now transpires that the Taliban had a brutal impact on the most
vulnerable communities, such as minorities or internally displaced people
(IDPs).”



Pakistan



Reuters: Six Pakistani Soldiers, 22 Militants Killed In Clashes Near Afghan
Border, Army Says
<[link removed]>



“Six Pakistani soldiers and 22 militants were killed in armed clashes in a
northwestern region near the Afghan border on Saturday, the army said, as
Islamist fighters increase their attacks on security forces in the area. The
firefights took place in three districts after soldiers conducted
intelligence-based operations in Waziristan and its adjoining regions, the army
statement said. The Pakistan Taliban, known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan
(TTP), said its fighters had killed the soldiers by storming a security
checkpoint. It did not say how many militants had died in the clashes. The TTP
has accelerated its attacks in recent months, mostly targeting members of the
security forces.”



Lebanon



Reuters: Hezbollah Sent 'Supervising' Forces To Syria's Homs, Sources Say
<[link removed]>



“Lebanese armed group Hezbollah sent a small number of "supervising forces"
from Lebanon to Syria overnight to help prevent anti-government fighters from
seizing the strategic city of Homs, two senior Lebanese security sources said
on Friday. "Homs must not fall," one of the sources told Reuters, adding that
senior officers deployed overnight to oversee some Hezbollah fighters who had
been in Syria near the border with Lebanon for years. A Syrian military officer
and two regional officials close to Tehran also told Reuters that elite
Hezbollah forces had crossed over from Lebanon and taken up positions in Homs.
The move reflects the dramatic shakeup in Syria's battlegrounds since Monday,
when sources close to the group said Hezbollah was not intending to deploy to
Syria for now.”



Middle East



Reuters: Israel Says It Will Destroy Syria's Heavy Strategic Weaponry
<[link removed]>



“Israel will step up airstrikes on Syrian stores of advanced weaponry,
Israeli officials said on Monday, and keep a 'limited' troop presence on the
ground, hoping to head off any threat that could emerge in the fallout of
president Bashar al-Assad's overthrow. Israel has watched the upheaval in Syria
with a mixture of hope and concern as it weighs the consequences of one of the
most significant strategic shifts in the Middle East in years. While Assad's
fall wiped out a bastion from which Israel's arch-foe Iran had exercised
influence in the region, the lightning advance of a disparate group of rebel
forces with roots in the Islamist ideology of Al Qaeda poses risks.”



Associated Press: Middle East Latest: Israeli Strikes Hit Gaza And Also Target
Suspected Weapons Sites In Syria
<[link removed]>



“Israeli strikes killed at least six people in the central Gaza Strip,
Palestinian medical officials said Monday, while also hitting suspected
chemical and long-range weapons sites in Syria to keep them from rebels who
seized Damascus. The U.N. Security Council plans to hold emergency closed
consultations on Syria later Monday at the request of Russia, which on Monday
said it granted asylum to its longtime ally Syrian leader Bashar Assad. Russian
President Vladimir Putin personally made the decision to offer asylum to Assad,
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. Peskov wouldn’t comment on
Assad’s specific whereabouts and said that Putin wasn’t planning to meet with
him.”



Associated Press: Gaza Health Officials Say Latest Israeli Airstrikes Kill At
Least 14 Including Children
<[link removed]>



“Israeli airstrikes in central Gaza killed at least 14 people including
children Sunday, Palestinian health officials said, while the bombing of a
hospital in northern Gaza wounded a half-dozen patients. Israel’s military
continues its latest offensive against Hamas militants in northern Gaza, whose
remaining Palestinians have been almost completely cut off from the rest of the
territory amid a growing humanitarian crisis. One airstrike flattened a
residential building in the urban Bureij refugee camp Sunday afternoon,
according to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in the nearby city of Deir al-Balah,
where the casualties were taken. At least nine people were killed including six
children and a woman. An Associated Press journalist saw the bodies at the
hospital’s morgue.”



United Kingdom



The Guardian: Politicians’ ‘Inflammatory Language’ Part Of Failure To Tackle
Extremism, UK Report Finds
<[link removed]>



“Politicians have been criticised for using “inflammatory language” and
peddling conspiracy theories in a report that finds government policies are
failing to prevent extremism spreading and taking root in the UK. The report
from Dame Sara Khan, a former counter-extremism commissioner, urges a “radical
rethink” of how ministers tackle extremism amid a “chronic risk of democratic
decline” due to conspiracy theories, worsening social cohesion and other
threats. Anger and grievances about the cost of living crisis as well as
growing polarisation were among factors linked in the report to decreasing
societal and democratic resilience in Britain.”



BBC: UK To Make Swift Decision On Banned Syria Group HTS, Says Minister
<[link removed]>



“The UK government will consider if Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir
al-Sham should still be designated a terrorist organisation after the rebels
led the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, said a minister. Pat McFadden
told the BBC the situation in the country was "very fluid" and if it stabilised
any change in the ban would be a "relatively swift decision". Hayat Tahrir
al-Sham (HTS) is proscribed as a terror organisation by the UK because of its
past association with al-Qaeda. It comes after Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer
welcomed the end of the rule of al-Assad, who was overthrown and fled Syria on
Sunday. HTS and allied rebel factions seized control of the Syrian capital
Damascus on Sunday.”



Australia



CBS: Australia Synagogue Fire "Likely A Terrorist Incident," Police Say As
They Seek Suspects In Melbourne Arson
<[link removed]>



“Australian police said Monday they are hunting for three suspects over an
arson attack on a Melbourne synagogue, designating it a terrorist act.
Mask-wearing attackers set the Adass Israel Synagogue ablaze before dawn on
Friday, police said, gutting much of the building. Some congregants were inside
the single-story building at the time but no serious injuries were reported.
The fire sparked international condemnation, including from Israel's Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Police have "three suspects in that matter, who we
are pursuing," Victorian police chief commissioner Shane Patton told a news
conference. Investigations over the weekend had made "significant progress,"
Patton said, declining to provide further details of the operation.”



The Counter Extremism Project depends on the generosity of its supporters. If
you value what we do, please consider making a donation.

DONATE NOW
<[link removed]>
 




Click here to unsubscribe.
<[link removed]>