[[link removed]]

THIS WAS A VERY CLOSE ELECTION, TRUMP WON, BUT GOT LESS THAN 50% OF
THE POPULAR VOTE, NOW LET’S ACT LIKE THAT AND BUILD ON IT – MONROE
COUNTY, PENNSYLVANIA – A CASE STUDY  
[[link removed]]


 

Jay Schaffner
December 3, 2024
Stansbury Forum
[[link removed]]


*
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*
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*
*
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_ With a much larger population than previously, with a larger youth
population, the erosion of vast numbers of voters throughout the
country is cause for alarm – for voting rights and for democracy and
warrants further study and exploration. _

,

 

Kamala Harris lost the election, her vote was just under 7-million
votes less than that of Joe Biden in 2020. Four million fewer voted
nationally than four years ago, due both to a large stay-at-home vote
as a protest by voters to the continued war in Gaza, as well as to
increased voter suppression by Republicans in many states. Still the
turnout of registered voters was higher than it was four years ago.

Donald Trump won, but he did not get a majority of the national vote.
This year’s election had the highest voter turnout of eligible
voters – 63.68% of the last five presidential elections, according
to The Election Lab at the University of Florida
[[link removed]], which
has tracked data for all elections since 1789. Trump’s winning vote
was the lowest since Bush in 2000.

The reality is that Trump is a minority president, polling less than
50% of the national popular vote. In the battle-ground states, Trump
won by less than 1% in Wisconsin; and less than 2% in both Michigan
and Pennsylvania, the three “Blue line states.”  He barely won
by two percent in Georgia and squeaked by with just 3% margins in both
Nevada and North Carolina. squeaking by with 1% margins in many
states.

Voter turnout (percentage of registered voters voting) was higher this
year than the pandemic year turnout of 62% in 2020, when most voting
was done by mail; then voting was done with Donald Trump in office,
and voters were voting against the reality of what another four years
of pandemic Donald would be for themselves, their families, their
communities and the country.

Voter turnout of registered voters was higher than the then high of
62.17 in 2008, when voters were voting for hope and against the wars
in Iraq and Afghanistan, and with Barack Obama running against the
reality of the GOP and George Bush.

In this year’s election, with a larger voter pool than any previous
election, Kamala Harris received more than four million more votes
than Obama did in 2008 and more than eight million more votes than
Hillary Clinton did in 2016.

With a much larger population than previously, with a larger youth
population, the erosion of vast numbers of voters throughout the
country is cause for alarm – for voting rights and for democracy and
warrants further study and exploration.

Racism and misogyny were a factor. But they were not the factor that
was predicted by nearly all the pre-election polls. The polls for the
most part got it wrong, with the exception that it would be a very
close race. There was no major defection of African American men to
Donald Trump. Similarly, there was no major machismo swing towards
Donald Trump – the Hispanic male vote for Trump was 48%, with 49%
voting for Harris, reflected a division in the population as whole. 

There was no major massive gender gap between women going for Harris
and men going for Trump. The one place where there was a significant
gender gap was among youth voters under age 30  – here the gender
gap was 30 points with young men breaking for Trump! (Trump sees high
number of young voters in the 2024 election (NBC)
[[link removed]] Post-election data in
fact show that there was nearly an even split between men and women
nationally going for both Harris and Trump, with some notable
exceptions:

* There are more women in the population, and more women are
registered to vote, and the reality is more women of all races voted
for Trump, except for African American women
* Roughly 53% of white women ended up voting for Donald Trump (only
10% of African American women voted for Trump, white 39% of Hispanic
women voted for him, according to the 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis
[[link removed]]).
* There was a higher youth vote
[[link removed]] for
Trump than was anticipated – 46% of the age 18-27 vote, slightly
higher among Millennials, but 51% among Gen-X-ers.
* Seniors nearly evenly divided
[[link removed]],
with Boomers going 51% for Trump, 47% for Harris, but those Seniors
over 79 going for Trump at an even higher rate – 57%.

In all seven of the battle-ground states, the voter turnout of
registered voters was much higher than nationally.

Did voters in other states not turn out because their votes didn’t
matter? If one looks at the New York State vote going back to 2008
[[link removed]], the answer is no. There was a higher
turnout of registered voters this year than in any of the previous
presidential elections going back to 2008, however statewide there
were 700,000 fewer voters than in the 2000 election. In a heavily Blue
state, this can be counted as voters that stayed home and did not turn
out to vote for Harris-Walz for a variety of reasons.

HARRIS RAISED MORE MONEY THAN DONALD TRUMP AND THE GOP, SO WHAT WENT
WRONG? WHAT HAPPENED?

MONROE COUNTY, PENNSYLVANIA – A CASE STUDY

I spent ten weeks knocking on doors in Monroe County in Northeast
Pennsylvania, NEPA as it is called. Pennsylvania, one of the seven
battle-ground swing states with 19 electoral votes, was considered the
“prize.” It was supposed to be part of the Blue Wall, along with
Michigan and Wisconsin.

Pennsylvania has close to ten million eligible voters, of which so far
7,025,000 ballots have been counted. Everyone is familiar with the
population rich anchors of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. The more than
fifteen counties that comprise the NEPA region of the state cast
one-and-a-quarter million of those votes. That is why Kamala Harris
and Tim Walz, and Donald Trump and J.D. Vance anchored much of their
campaigns in this part of the state.

Over those ten weeks I personally knocked on more than 2000-2500 doors
in different parts of Monroe Country. Along with my wife, we emailed
every friend, co-worker, relative, neighbor, many of the musicians
that I had represented for over twenty years, activists that I had
known and worked with. The response was incredible – 46 responded
and came out to join our group in Monroe County, a group of us that
had worked together going back to the 2008 Obama campaign. We worked
with the local Monroe County Democratic Organization and the
Harris-Walz Campaign. Some came for a day, some for the weekend, some
for longer. Additionally, friends helped email more than 5000
postcards to Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan
voters.

Our country came out of the McCarthy period to end Jim Crow, to pass
Civil Rights and Voting Rights legislation, and then to help end the
war in Viet Nam. And two years after Richard Nixon swept the 1972
election, this is the country that drove him from office and nearly
impeached him the following year.

CAN WE DO THIS AGAIN?

I think we can, but we need to do this working differently, reaching
out to those that voted, for various reasons, for Trump, and at the
same time, in defense of reproductive rights, to raise the minimum
wage and numerous other ballot measures in states from one end of the
country to the other.

SOME SAY THE ECONOMIC ISSUES WERE NOT EMPHASIZED – NOT ENOUGH –
THOSE SOME WERE NOT IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

Along state highways there were signs saying, “KAMALA WANTS TO
RAISE THE MINIMUM WAGE.” The minimum wage in Pennsylvania is $7.25.
Those some did not attend the mass rally that I did in Wilkes Barre,
where both economic issues and reproductive rights were stressed.

Could there have been more signs? Sure. Could there have  been
better literature? Sure. The message at the rallies from friends who
attended the rallies with Tim Walz was that he hit on the same issues.
The campaign did not control how the news media covered those rallies.

The campaign did control the message in the ads – these could have
been vastly improved on.

The volunteers that we brought out came because of the existential
threat of fascism. That does not mean that this was the number one
issue on the minds of voters. Talking with voters at their doors, the
number one issue was prices they paid for goods in the stores, jobs or
lack of jobs, and inflation. After the fact polling shows that .as
well.

But changing the message when you are canvassing, and when the
infrastructure of the campaign is doing something else is a daunting
and perplexing task.

The campaign should have championed an economic message of jobs,
raising the minimum wage and tying those wages tied to inflation. But
would Wall Street and the small businesses that the campaign was
pitching to have gone along with that? Did the campaign count who had
the votes, not just some of the dollar contributions?

Pitching a $25,000 credit for first-time home buyers when there
aren’t homes to buy, when the cost of homes in the NEPA area is from
$200,000 on up, amounts to closing costs. People realized it just
wasn’t real, or didn’t apply to them, or to their immediate needs.
They also realized that $25,000 would merely drive up the cost of what
homes were actually on the market.

Similarly, the $50,000 tax credit for first-time businesses, given the
cost of starting a business today, and the cost of equipment and
capital improvements, was also not real to many.

Harris projected raising prescription caps for all and extending
Medicare to include home elder care, but these were raised late in the
campaign. DEBT RELIEF FOR TEACHERS AND OTHER WORKERS IN THE PUBLIC
SECTOR SHOULD HAVE BEEN A TOP ISSUE FOR THE CAMPAIGN AND SHOULD BE
STILL FOR DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS.

Bottom line, the economic issue of jobs, and wages tied to inflation
are what should have been forefront – but that is a weakness and
limitation of the Democratic Party as it is constituted.

Democrats need to advance an ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BILL OF RIGHTS that
they will champion in Congress, even in a Congress that is dominated
by Republicans. Such legislation can then be introduced in every state
and city.

Minimum wage increases were approved in Missouri and Alaska; both
those states and Nebraska passed paid sick-leave statues – all three
states gave a majority of votes to Trump.

TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON CULTURAL ISSUES – I THINK NOT

Voters clearly understood that women’s right to control over their
bodies, families right to control over their collective bodies was on
the line. This was expressed repeatedly in after-vote comments on why
voters voted for Kamala Harris.

Voters approved a state constitutional right to abortion in seven
states (Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, and
New York); and a majority of voters in Florida voted similarly, but it
failed to reach the 60% bar imposed by Gov. DeSantis and
GOP-controlled legislature. (Missouri, Montana, Nevada and Florida
voted for Trump.)

Other state-wide measures of significance passed by voters were:

* Colorado, Kentucky and Nebraska voters rejected school vouchers
* Alaska voters banned anti-union captive audience meetings
* Oregon voters passed a measure to protect cannabis workers’
right to unionize

(Kentucky, Nebraska, and Alaska voted for Trump.)

STRATEGY OF WORKING THE MARGINS NEEDS TO BE CHANGED FOR REACHING
EVERYONE

The national emphasis of the Democratic Party has been to concentrate
on the inconsistent voters  the irregular voters – registered
Democrats who did not vote in 2022, or 2020, or 2018, or 2016 and to
reach them, convince them to vote for Harris and get them to the
polls.

Add to their ranks similar registered Independents who are
inconsistent voters, Greens, Libertarians and even Republicans who may
have signed a petition for a democratic cause over the past few years.

LEFT ALONE WERE REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND INDEPENDENTS WHO VOTED
REGULARLY. THESE VOTERS WERE EXCLUDED FROM THE VOTER CALL BANKS; THE
LISTS PREPARED FOR DOOR CANVASSING. (IN NEW YORK CITY WE REGULARLY GET
CALLS, OR AT LEAST MY WIFE DOES, WHO IS A REGISTERED DEMOCRAT. THIS
YEAR SHE DID NOT GET ONE CALL, NONE FROM HER UNION, OR FROM ANY OF OUR
ELECTED DEMOCRATIC OFFICIALS, URGING HER TO VOTE. Since I am
registered for the Working Families Party, I can understand why I
didn’t get these calls.)

My experience was that the voters identified as “Independents”
through this process were really closet Republicans in the main.

Over the ten weeks, I was going to some houses four and five times –
once people said they were voting for Harris and the Democratic ticket
and had a plan, and were visited in the past two weeks, I didn’t go
again, unless it was the weekend before the election. The MiniVan
(phone app used by the campaign) history showed that some of these
voters were being called or texted as many as 6, 8 and 10 times since
the beginning of September. And the message was always the same.

AND YET, FOR THE NEIGHBORS ON THE BLOCK WHO WE WERE PASSING BY, WHO
WERE REGISTERED DEMOCRATS, THERE WAS NO DOOR KNOCK, NO LITERATURE
DROP, NO PHONE CALL, NO NOTHING. NO FINDING OUT WHAT CONCERNED THEM,
WHERE THEY STOOD, IF THEY WERE VOTING, AND WHO THEY SUPPORTED.

There was no training for the hundreds and thousands that answered the
call of “come to Pennsylvania.” The message was, read the MiniVan
script, tell people why _you_ are for Harris, get them to commit.
There was no emphasis on what were the key issues for the area of
Pennsylvania we were canvassing in.

Many of the “Democrats” that we visited were not going to vote for
Harris. I think the same can be said of the regular Democratic voters.

There was plenty of money in the campaign – it was just not
allocated for this – this was not a priority. What was needed was a
massive outreach campaign to all potential voters, to reach and
educate, and then mobilize them to vote.

The approach of working the margins resulted in all the battle-ground
states in a voter turnout of registered voters that was significantly
better than the national average of 63.68%, but could more have been
accomplished? IN ORDER TO WIN, MORE NEEDS TO BE ACCOMPLISHED.

NO REAL COORDINATION WITH LOCAL PEOPLE

There was no real coordination with the local Democratic Committee. No
exchange of information as to what the communities were like, what the
local issues were, even who the local candidates were (other than read
the campaign handouts); and even sending volunteers to communities
where they could not gain entry because they were gated.

On the last weekend of the campaign, we finally gained entrance to the
largest community in the Poconos – a gated community. I asked why
“X”  wasn’t contacted; she lives in the community and got us
access in previous elections. The response of the area Harris
coordinator was “who is that.” My response is “she is one of the
candidates listed on the literature that everyone is giving out.”

THE PEOPLE WORKING FOR THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN WERE HARD WORKING PEOPLE,
BUT THEY WERE NOT FROM THE LOCAL AREA.In previous elections, out of
area staffers came into the area much earlier (In 2012 a staffer from
Kansas moved into the area in February; in 2016 a staffer from
Scranton moved into the area in late May). These people learned about
the area, the various communities, met with local people, lived with
local people. Such was not the case with the 2024 campaign. Part of
the problem was the late start of Kamala Harris’s campaign, but the
key staff was here while Joe Biden was the candidate in June.

SOME SPECIFICS OF THE CAMPAIGN

MISOGYNY – Was a real factor and you could see it. So many times,
when we knocked on doors and when both husband and wife or boyfriend
and girlfriend came to the door together, after hearing what we were
there for so often the man stayed and the woman walked away ‘to do
other things,’ or the man came out to talk to us. Often the woman
would come out by herself and say or whisper: ‘I’m with her and he
doesn’t know it.’

LACK OF A TRUMP GROUND GAME – The media was full of reports that
there was no Trump Ground Game in Pennsylvania, that Musk’s efforts
were breaking down, and we didn’t really see much evidence of any
Trump or Republican literature on people’s doors. In the last two
weeks there was literature for local state assembly Republican
candidates.

BUT THERE WAS A TRUMP GROUND GAME – it was the Catholic Church and
the different Evangelical Churches. When you would get repeated
answers, and these were from “registered Democrats, “that I
can’t vote for that woman because she kills babies,”
because  she changes children’s sex when they go to school,”
because she is for “men playing on girls’ sports teams,” you
know that these are organized and indoctrinated responses.

In the more western parts of NEPA there is the added factor of the
Amish. The Amish community rallied to Donald Trump, and their vote
cannot be underestimated in Berks County and the farms surrounding
Reading and Kutztown.

THERE WERE FEWER TRUMP SIGNS THAN IN PREVIOUS YEARS, but there were
still fewer Harris signs. It took weeks for us to get a Harris sign,
and we ordered and paid for one from the Harris-Walz campaign. The
local campaign was stingy giving them out at first, and only had lots
of signs the last few weeks of the campaign. In canvassing, the Trump
signs were up to intimidate and terrorize neighbors to not put up a
Harris sign – that was the atmosphere.

People who took signs said they felt safe doing so this year, that in
2020 the Biden signs in their part of the country had been shot down.

WE FOUND SOME HISPANIC SUPPORT FOR TRUMP – and division in families
along generational lines that was inconsistent. In some families it
was the younger members that supported Harris, in other families the
opposite was the case. Reasons for doing so were often expressed as,
“our family did it the right way,” or “our family didn’t jump
the line.” Then there were the more MAGA expressions that “we are
not rapists.”  More Hispanic men supported Harris than Trump (49
to 48%) and amongst Hispanic women, Harris received support from 59%
of Hispanic women, with Trump garnering just 39%. (2024 Fox News Voter
Analysis
[[link removed]])

Immigrants of other nationalities in our nation’s past faced similar
divisions. In the 1880’s Irish who were already here, were opposed
to the entry of new immigrants from Ireland.

Later in the century, new Italian immigrants faced similar hostility
from Italian Americans already here. In the early part of the last
century, Jews from England and Germany were hostile to the entry of
Eastern European Jews, and even championed quotas, which were later
enacted.

Immigrants who were already here have long sought to be
“Americanized.” We are seeing this play out once again. There is a
new twist, however. This time there is opposition to immigrants coming
to the country from Venezuela, Nicaragua Brazil, and Cuba –
countries that have taken a socialist or non-capitalist path or have
tried to. So, the opposition now is also fueled by good old
anti-communism.

I haven’t seen figures for the Asian American vote, but from
experiences canvassing, I can say that this was similar. There also
needs to be a differentiation amongst the different peoples of Asia
and the Pacific Islands, where immigrants have come from, and their
experiences.

AFRICAN AMERICAN SUPPORT FOR TRUMP – we found this, and nationally
it reached about 23-25% of the African American population, up from
what it had been in previous elections. (The AP reports that in 2020
Trump got 13% of the African American vote, and in 2016, 8%.)  In
some homes it was the male member supporting Trump, in fewer, it was
the woman.

Surprisingly, contrary to what the polls predicted; on election day a
number of younger family members came to the door whispering that they
voted for Harris.

ARAB AMERICAN AND PALESTINIAN AMERICANS – we found mixed reactions
from these voters, depending it seems on their age and how long they
have been in the country. Some were going to be voting for Harris,
some doing so reluctantly, more were going to sit the election out.
None were going to be voting for Trump. Many while they would give us
their choices on who they were supporting for President, were not
inclined to do so when in came to Senate (Casey) and Congress
(Cartwright or Wild, depending which district we were in).

DISCONNECT BETWEEN VOLUNTEERS AND THOSE BEING CANVASSED – thousands
of wonderful people came to Pennsylvania to help “turn Pennsylvania
Blue.” They were motivated by the existential threat of fascism
posed by Donald Trump and the MAGites. They came as individuals, some
in their own cars, some by bus, some flew in; others got on buses
organized by Democratic elected officials and Democratic Clubs and the
Working Families Party in New York; or similarly organized in New
Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts. . Volunteers came regularly
from Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey,
Maryland the District of Columbia, some flew in from states to the
west, a few, even from Canada. Others came on buses organized by their
union – 1199, SEIU, UNITE-HERE, UFT, AFSCME, SAG-AFTRA, AFM and
others.

Some of those being canvassed were also moved by the threat of
fascism, but not many –remember these were infrequent voters, not
regular voters. More were moved by the threat Trump posed to women and
reproductive health and a ban on abortion. But canvassers were not
prepared to take on the economic issues uppermost on those being
canvassed – prices, inflation and jobs. There was no preparation of
canvassers.

NEPA IS LOW UNION DENSITY – seeing the busloads of union members
coming in was great for this retired union organizer. It was a great
pick-up for those of us at the mobilization point when the purple SEIU
and 1199 buses rolled in. But when those same buses hit the
neighborhoods, it was a different story. Union membership in this part
of Pennsylvania is low. My neighbors in Monroe who are union members
are often those who commute back to New York City, belonging to unions
there, and voting in the city. Teachers here who are in a union are
more likely to be in the Pennsylvania State Education Association.
Some in our neighborhood are in IATSE, working jobs at venues like the
arenas, casinos, stage shows, etc.

Canvassers expecting to hit the doors talking to their union brothers
and sisters were disappointed.

THE KICKER – the last two weeks TV commercials for Matt Cartwright
were disgusting. Matt Cartwright was our Congressperson. He was number
ten on the GOP hit list. He was defeated.

The commercial starts out with Cartwright standing next to dam wall,
saying we need this, it protects us from flooding. Next is a shot of
the Texas-Mexico border wall, with Cartwright saying, ‘we need this,
it protects us from murderers and rapists.’ _Politico_
[[link removed]]_ _quotes
Cartwright: “I took on my own party to oppose sanctuary cities and
deport immigrants who commit crimes because it’s absolutely
necessary for America to work,” said Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.),
as his ad showed footage of the wall.

This is the campaign literature we were handing out! We were telling
voters that if Kamala is elected, she needs people in Congress like
Matt Cartwright to have her back. Right!

When first elected to Congress, Cartwright supported sanctuary cities
and was a member of the Progressive Caucus in Congress. Later he
dropped out. Cartwright reminds me of members of the Populist Party in
the late 1800s, who while elected as progressives, refused to take on
racism, and later even made a pact with the Klan. Hopefully, Democrats
like Cartwright won’t go that far. But positions like this are not
how we are going to win back support for the Democratic Party.

Both Democratic Congressional Representatives, Susan Wild (PA-7) and
Matt Cartwright (PA-8) were defeated.

SO, HOW DO WE BUILD A MOVEMENT THAT COMBINES PEOPLE THAT LIVE OUT
HERE, WITH PEOPLE THAT HELP AND SUPPORT THEIR WORK, ON ISSUES THAT
REACH OUT TO PEOPLE THAT VOTED FOR DONALD TRUMP?

Writing this I was reminded of movements I participated in many years
ago. One such movement was Vietnam Summer in 1967, where we canvassed
everyone who lived in the Evanston community, north of Chicago. We
were planning to run a peace candidate against Congress member Donald
Rumsfeld in the election the following year, and we were trying to get
a sense of the community in a non-election year on the issue of the
war in Viet Nam, and a halt to the bombing, for negotiations.

My parents had done similar work in their suburban community of Skokie
for open housing in 1965 and 1966 while Martin Luther King was leading
the open housing marches in Chicago. Skokie later passed an ordinance
declaring that the suburban community was ending the practice of Jim
Crow housing and the covenants attached to home sales. Similar efforts
were undertaken in other Chicago suburban communities.

WHAT IF A COORDINATED CAMPAIGN WERE UNDERTAKEN with peace forces in
Monroe County, working with students from local colleges, calling for
an end to U.S. military aid to Israel with the money going to fund
hospitals, schools, new housing construction and libraries in our
country. Elements of a campaign could be a petition, teach-ins,
forums, hearings, with the aim of resolutions in student bodies,
churches, synagogues and mosques; and the getting of letters to the
editor, elected officials to come out in support, etc.

A similar campaign could be undertaken to SAVE OUR SOCIAL SECURITY
AND MEDICARE – WE PAID FOR IT.

If such campaigns could get off the ground, could we seek to get
progressives once again from other states to “come to
Pennsylvania,” stay with Penn Staters for the weekend or longer and
help us return Pennsylvania to the Blue? Could we go back to
door-to-door canvassing? Could we coordinate with the Monroe County
Democratic Committee, and could we use the MiniVan app for all
registered Democrats and Independents, regardless of when they voted?

Donald Trump was elected President with 50% of the national vote. In
eight of those states, voters in their majorities voted to support
women’s right to an abortion, putting it in their state constitution
in seven of them. Voters in a number of states that voted for Trump
also passed incredible economic measures, aimed at alleviating the
pain which working people face. This shows that a cross electoral
coalition and movement can be built, if we are smart, that can include
Harris voters, Trump voters, and those that didn’t vote.

So, while Trump is president, while Republicans control the Senate and
hold a slim majority in the House, we can still pressure Congress, and
we must. We can still pressure state legislatures. And we must. We
will continue to build a political movement in the streets, in the
communities, and to win and take back the legislative halls. We will
still defend immigrants and immigrant families, and we must. We will
still defend our trans brothers and sisters, our trans neighbors and
families, and we must. We will still defend all the gains that we now
have and fight against all attempts to cut our basic social safety
net, and we must.

_Jay Schaffner is one of the founding moderators of ”xxxxxx"
[[link removed]].
He is a member of the State Committee of the ”New York Working
Families Party" [[link removed]]. For
twenty years he was the supervisor of the Recording Department of
Local 802, American Federation of Musicians. He is now retired._

* Deep Canvassing
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* 2024 Elections
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* voter mobilization
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* Harris-Walz
[[link removed]]
* Donald Trump
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