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A reader emailed me to say I was dead wrong about tariffs. They are paid by the exporting country, he insisted. They don’t raise prices for consumers. He also said that I’m an idiot. Only one of those claims is up for debate. The ones about tariffs are just categorically false.
My wife thinks we would be idiots to not stock up on essentials at the local—two hours away, so North Dakota local—warehouse store before the end of the year. She heard that most of our toilet paper comes from Canada, but that is not the case. Ninety-nine percent of our toilet paper is proudly made in America, so there’s no rush to fill your garage with it or have a bidet installed.
One couple I know planned to buy a new washer and dryer next summer; now they will make that purchase before Inauguration Day. Other friends are getting new game consoles or the latest cell phone earlier than originally planned. I’m not a gamer, and I hold onto my Android phones until they absolutely refuse to work, but I am worried about the price of single-malt Scotch, and I have been thinking about installing some kind of indoor system for growing vegetables. The Scotch part is about tariffs; the vegetables part is about mass deportations. I don’t know what the Android phone part is about.
One of my brothers—who, I must point out, does not live in Europe—had a bidet installed a while back, and he swears by it. Both of the times I lived in Europe, the bidet in our apartment was used as a planter. It was a complicated process that did not involve putting soil directly into the bidet. The bidet plants thrived even as our other house plants withered. I believe this was because it is so easy to give bidet plants a little water while you are washing your hands or brushing your teeth. My indoor planting system will not involve a bidet. It might be hydroponic. My wife hasn’t said anything, but I’m sure she thinks it will be a disaster.
All of the above evidence is anecdotal, of course, but it points to a spike in demand which could cause prices to rise at a higher rate even before tariffs or mass deportations are put into effect. The question is whether the urge to buy big-ticket items or hoard imported parts or consumables is justified, and the answer depends on two things: the likelihood that the policies will be implemented and the likelihood that they will increase prices.
There will be increased tariffs. Donald Trump once tweeted that he is “a Tariff Man,” and during the campaign he repeatedly promised new tariffs. His Agenda 47 promises [ [link removed] ] “universal baseline tariffs,” and he or his advisers have publicly set that baseline at a ten or twenty percent across-the-board increase on all imports and a minimum sixty percent tariff on imports from China. Trump recently posted [ [link removed] ] on social media that on January 20th he would “sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% tariff on ALL products.” Since we have a trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, those necessary documents would—in a system of properly working checks and balances—be legislation. We could really go down a rabbit hole here.
There will also undoubtedly be a mass deportation program. This might be the only thing Trump promised more often than he promised tariffs. In his long, rambling address [ [link removed] ] to CPAC last March, Trump promised “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.” The second plank in the 2024 Republican Party Platform [ [link removed] ] reads, “CARRY OUT THE LARGEST DEPORTATION OPERATION IN AMERICAN HISTORY.” (All-caps theirs, not mine.) Also, the Republicans’ constant scapegoating of immigrants during the campaign leaves them no choice. Their base believes immigrants are the cause of all of their problems, especially the made-up ones about criminal immigrant gangs taking over Aurora, Colorado and immigrants eating pets in Springfield, Ohio. Trump would fix those problems for them with a mass deportation program at least partially based on Operation Wetback [ [link removed] ], a 1954 deportation effort that was about what you would expect, given its name. During a campaign stop in Aurora, Trump said that his administration’s deportation program would be named Operation Aurora, because what could be better than naming an operation after an imaginary crisis?
As to whether tariffs will increase prices, the couple buying a washer and dryer to get ahead of tariffs are right to trust their instincts. They don’t need a degree in economics to figure this one out. Common sense and a quick look back at Trump’s previous tariffs will do. The 2018 Trump tariffs on washing machines caused the cost of both washers and dryers [ [link removed] ] to increase. That is because importers split the increased cost of washing machines between washers and dryers, so the price of both went up. This is exactly what John Deere would do if Trump followed through on his promise to slap a 200% tariff on anything the company decides to manufacture in Mexico. The 200% tariff on a tractor would be spread across the rest of their products, so your riding mower purchase would subsidize someone else’s tractor purchase.
You won’t be surprised to learn that the tariff exemption program for Trump’s 2018 tariffs on China was used to reward [ [link removed] ] companies that donated to Republican campaigns and punish companies that donated to Democratic campaigns. Nothing to see here, folks, just the “no quid pro quo” people doing a little quid pro quo. As you may have guessed, this is yet another rabbit hole.
I have read that people’s inflation concerns over the last few years were especially exacerbated by prices at the grocery store, because grocery store shopping is not optional. Well, those folks are not going to enjoy the economic impacts of mass deportations. Most Americans are aware that migrant labor is important in the produce industry. They may not be quite so aware that undocumented immigrants make up an estimated thirty to fifty percent of the meatpacking [ [link removed] ] workforce. Immigrants also make up more than half of those working in dairy [ [link removed] ] production, and a majority of them are thought to be undocumented. What it boils down to is that mass deportations will cause food prices to climb while simultaneously decreasing producers’ margins, assuming the government doesn’t come in with another agriculture bailout.
The negative impacts of tariffs and mass deportations on agriculture and manufacturing are another rabbit hole, but we are just exploring inflation here. I suppose the good news on that point is that both policies will slow the economy and increase unemployment, which will decrease demand. Then inflation will naturally decrease along with Americans’ standard of living and our reputation as a reliable trading partner and as a reliable partner in general.
So, what are we to do? Here in deep red states, we need to put pressure on our elected officials from the state legislature to the governor’s office to Congress. Most of them, given the option, will lay low and say nothing. We don’t give them that option. We write and call and email and capture their responses. We record everything and broadcast it everywhere we can. We make them take ownership of the economic lemon they are going to create. We hold them accountable.
And maybe we set up some kind of system to grow vegetables year round. Send me your recommendations on that, if you have any. I don’t want it to be a disaster, especially considering the price of Scotch.
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